Those looking to read the tea leaves for Tuesday’s New Hampshire vote are asking if the Iowa victories of Obama and Huckabee have wings. In Obama’s case, the answer appears to be yes. Obama is tied, trailing by one, or leading by as much as 12 in every major poll in New Hampshire taken after […]
It couldn’t be closer on the Democratic side, but Huckabee is going to win Iowa going away on the Republican side (that’s one prediction I missed - the other, that Fred Thompson would not finish third, is still in doubt, though Thompson is holding on to third by a thin margin at the moment)…more later…
UPDATE […]
Tomorrow is the day the 2008 presidential campaign officially kicks off, in the always-odd spectacle of a caucus, not a primary. Truth be told, though I earlier ventured a prediction of Romney and Hillary, this one is a toss-up on both sides. The Democratic race in particular could go to Hillary, Edwards, or Obama, and […]
What the hey…with polls showing both parties completely up for grabs in Iowa, I’ll put my two cents in with predictions.
Republicans: Mitt Romney
Democrats: Hillary Clinton
Second will go to Huckabee and Edwards, respectively. Big losers on the day will be Obama, with a tough-to-swallow third, and Fred Thompson, who will begin the slink off the stage […]
There are many, many reasons I could never support the modern Democratic party - their embrace of the unions that are killing our public schools and auto industry, their protectionist nonsense, and their general warmth towards big government spending (this is not to ignore the big government spending of some modern Republicans, the present administration […]
Back in business after an extended Christmas break (among my gifts - an HD DVD player with the 5-disc Blade Runner collection - how cool is that?). Hard to believe, but Iowa is a scant seven days away now.
On the Republican side, the real suspense is two-fold - can Romney hold off a late-charging Huckabee, […]
You can’t swing a cat without hitting a Rudy free-fall story, but Jim Geraghty says “Not so fast”:
…Rudy will remain in okay shape until it’s a two man race, and that for him to win the nomination, he needs the last remaining Not Rudy candidate to be too bruised to triumph.
Iowa, for now, appears […]
…much as that will disappoint the campaign managers who were salivating over the coveted ‘D’08′ demographic (not to be confused with the coveted Homer Simpson ‘D’oh!’ demographic). For lots of reasons, I think it’s much cleaner for an independent blogger to stay out of that game.
Nevertheless, I have made it plain to all my readers […]
With all the excitement over the rise of Huckabee and Obama, the latest USA Today/Gallup numbers seem like a blast from the past, with Rudy and Clinton actually increasing their front-runner status over the prior polling period:
Republicans.
It’s Rudy Giuliani still in the lead — and a quartet of rivals all within striking range. Mike Huckabee’s […]
Curious as to why the opening vote in Iowa on January 3rd may go to Obama and Huckabee rather than Hillary and Romney, as presumed for so long? Peter Beinart says it’s because Iraq has settled down:
The reason Iraq is fading is simple: Not as many people are dying there. Fewer deaths mean fewer front-page […]
Huckabee apologizes to Romney for attacking his Mormonism…
Hillary apologizes to Obama for making his drug-using early life an issue (and forces out the advisor who brought it up)…
…and Major League Baseball should apologize to everyone in the country for the sham that their lax enforcement of drug policy has turned their record books into. Basically, […]
There is much debate over whether such political trading vehicles as Intrade have enough volume to constitute an accurate source of predictions, but for what it’s worth, the money is still on Hillary and Giuliani, surging Obamas and Huckabees notwithstanding (the Iowa Electronic Market, which has nothing to do with the Iowa primaries, has it […]
Yesterday, I shared my opinion that the surging Mike Huckabee might have a chance at the Republican nomination, due to his obvious appeal to the base, but would lose big in the general election because his appeal is limited to the base. Today, a couple of stories have added to my apprehensions. One is a new […]
Foreign policy has been much more exciting than political campaigns lately, so I’ve been pretty light on the ostensible purpose of this blog. However, I would be negligent in my duties if I failed to note that while Giuliani has been struggling under the cloud of ’scandal’, Mike Huckabee has been skyrocketing. Those looking for proof needn’t […]
Rudy Giuliani has led the Republican pack wire-to-wire (at least nationally - among the early primary states, Romney seems the frontrunner), but look what’s happening in the race for second. A plunging Fred Thompson, a resurgent McCain, and Romney are within three points of each other in the RCP averages, and Mike Huckabee is surging […]
I focus a lot on national polls and not that much on the ground in the early states. Here’s a couple of stories to rectify that - first, in Iowa, Huckabee is surging and Edwards is struggling:
The University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll, released at 8 a.m. Monday morning, shows Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in […]
…as I just found out that someone in California has hit my bank account for many hundreds of dollars in at least ten transactions through a credit card linked to the account (hope you get arrested tonight, now that it’s been reported stolen, jackass!). I know for a fact my credit card was used at a […]
With just a 4.8% average spread between Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson at the RealClearPolitics polling page, the GOP race is as tight as it has been since…well, maybe ever. Or is it? Thompson is, of course, benefiting from his recent announcement at the moment, and enjoying a bounce that will probably decline. […]
…and yep, I missed this one, too. Egads, I’m falling down on the job lately!
Fortunately, Chuck Todd of National Journal fame caught it, and he runs down the winners and losers:
Let’s start with the winners: Thompson came out a winner within the first five minutes thanks to the moderator’s opening question about the candidate-to-be’s decision […]
…though our friend Ryan won’t be happy. From the always-interesting Tom Bevan:
Mitt Romney did what he needed to do yesterday, which was to come away from Ames with a decent-sized win. On Friday, I suggested a 10-point margin of victory was the minimum bar Romney needed to meet expectations, and he cleared that hurdle, […]
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