Decision ‘08

Biden? Biden??!!??

An incredible amount of buzz is surrounding the most unlikely of VP picks for Barack Obama - a pick that may be only hours away:

Going into the final days, Obama was said to be focused mainly on three candidates: Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana, Governor Tim Kaine of Virginia and Senator Joseph Biden Jr. of Delaware.

The Nutroots® hate Bayh, of course, but he would still be a solid pick, as would Kaine, but Biden? And yet…:

When Joe Biden returns to Capitol Hill Monday from his two-day trip to embattled Georgia, vice presidential speculation will rest squarely on him.The longtime Delaware senator and former presidential candidate has long been considered to be on the shortlist for Barack Obama’s running mate, but his quickly-planned trip to Georgia Saturday night at the behest of that country’s president left Washington buzzing he is the most likely choice.

And there’s this:

Well-connected Washington insider Steve Clemons has already reported that signs point to Joe Biden as Barack Obama’s running mate. Now comes this tidbit, coutesy of the Washington Post’s Shailagh Murray: Tony Blinken, the Biden foreign policy adviser who accompanied Obama on his overseas trip, left Washington to go on vacation late last week. Destination? Hawaii.

The timing of Blinken’s trip isn’t clear. Maybe he got there after Obama left. Or maybe he really was on vacation. (The article doesn’t explore this possibility, although perhaps Murray was just being coy.) But keep in mind that Blinken is married to Evan Ryan, who was Biden’s deputy campaign manager.

There’s an old political joke that goes like this: the most dangerous place in Washington is between [fill-in-the-blank] and a camera. Joe Biden makes the most natural fit for that joke imaginable. I can’t imagine that Barack Obama would be happy with this choice, long-term. Biden talks, and talks, and talks, and then he talks. And in all that talking, he’s going to say something really stupid. And then he’s going to say something else really stupid. And THEN he’s going to say something offensive and stupid that grabs the headlines for a week or more.

Mark my words, if Biden is really the pick: he’s a walking gaffe bomb. Obama will rue the day he got talked into this one…

McCain’s pick will be announced on August 29th at a rally in Ohio…

21 Responses to “Biden? Biden??!!??”

1 Chris J. Breisch Says:
August 19th, 2008 at 5:54 am
Can’t be Bayh. Dems almost certainly lose a seat in the Senate when the governor (likely Mitch Daniels (R)) picks his replacement. Picking Bayh is betting an awful lot on Jill Long Thompson (D) who appears to be slipping in the polls and faces an opponent with a huge cash edge.

Biden? Despite his experience, he’s just the guy in the suit standing next to Obama. And all I ever think about with Biden is plagiarism. I know it was two decades ago, and he’s done a lot since then, but that’s the first thing that pops into my mind every time I hear his name. Of course, Obama’s not courting my vote, so it doesn’t matter what I think.
2 peter Says:
August 19th, 2008 at 7:29 am
Nice header (reference to Ferris Bueller?)

I hope it’s not Biden. He might be a good Secretary of State, but I don’t see what he adds to the ticket.
3 Chris J. Breisch Says:
August 19th, 2008 at 8:00 am
I think he’d be a good SoS as well. I think that’s the whole point though, peter. With the problems in Russia, I think Obama feels he needs some foreign policy expertise on the ticket. I’m not convinced of that myself, but politicians make strange decisions sometimes.

Really, the whole VP selection stuff is a media made up event. Most people really don’t care. And most VP’s are not Dick Cheney. They fade into the background, and except for going to the occasional state funeral, pretty much disappear. Perhaps Obama’s VP would have a more Cheney-esque role than is the norm. Perhaps Cheney is a turning point for VP’s in America. I don’t know, but somehow I doubt it.

And I’m not picking on Obama here. I don’t expect McCain’s VP to have a large role in the administration either.
4 peter Says:
August 19th, 2008 at 8:37 am
It might be a good idea for Obama to announce key cabinet appointments (such as SoS) in advance. Possibly even ask Gates to remain as SecDef.
5 Ryan Says:
August 19th, 2008 at 8:44 am
Of the three, I think Biden’s easily the best choice.

I hate Bayh less than others - the man deserves some props for being as liberal as he is in Indiana, which is about as Southern a state you’ll find north of the Mason-Dixon - but he’s still not an actual liberal and it’s not worth giving up a Senate seat. That and he’s BORING.

Ditto Kaine. He’s an empty suit. He’s not even popular in Virginia (where I live). Tell me again what the point would be? (He’s also pro-life. For me, this is a feature; for everyone else who supports Obama, I’m guessing it’s a bug.)

I like Joe Biden. I appreciate that he gives Repbublicans exactly as much respect on foreign policy as they deserve: none. The way he dismantled the laughable Giuliani during primary season was about as brilliant as you could want. I consider his arrogance and mouthiness very big pluses indeed.

Now, if it were up to me, I probably wouldn’t pick any of these three. But given the set, I think Biden’s clearly the superior choice.
6 Fargus Says:
August 19th, 2008 at 8:44 am
From what I understand, announcement of cabinet appointments before election isn’t allowed under federal law.
7 Ryan Says:
August 19th, 2008 at 8:49 am
Peter:

Announcing the Cabinet ahead of time is technically illegal because of patronage laws. I wouldn’t count on anyone doing it.

I also wouldn’t count on Obama keeping Gates. If we’re to take seriously his claim that Democrats have a legitimate voice in national security debates - and a Biden selection would certainly indicate that we ought to - he will not have a Republican Secretary of Defense.
8 Chris J. Breisch Says:
August 19th, 2008 at 8:49 am
peter, I’ve thought the same thing for McCain. It’s traditionally not done. But tradition can be changed. I keep thinking that Lieberman for SoS would be a great choice for McCain. Especially if he announces it early. A lot of the “upside” to having him on the ticket, none of the “downside”.

And let’s face it, Lieberman needs to start looking for a new job. I know it’s a long way off, but there’s no way he gets re-elected in 2012. The Democrats will definitely make his seat a target and will only have to defeat him once, not twice. Also, the Republicans will likely nominate a candidate capable of getting more than a few hundred votes, and that will also siphon support from Joe. No matter what, he’s serving his last term in the Senate.
9 Ryan Says:
August 19th, 2008 at 8:49 am
Hmm… jinx. I suppose I shall owe you a Coke.
10 Chris J. Breisch Says:
August 19th, 2008 at 8:50 am
ok, Fargus, Ryan. I bow to your knowledge in the area. I wasn’t aware of the illegalities involved.
11 Chris J. Breisch Says:
August 19th, 2008 at 9:47 am
Fargus, Ryan, I call BS.

I believe this is the relevant code (U.S.C. 18, S. 599):

Whoever, being a candidate, directly or indirectly promises or pledges the appointment, or the use of his influence or support for the appointment of any person to any public or private position or employment, for the purpose of procuring support in his candidacy shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than one year, or both; and if the violation was willful, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than two years, or both.

In Brown v. Hartlage, the candidate had promised to reduce the salaries of government employees if elected. The commonwealth of Kentucky cited very similar state law to USC 18 S. 599 (the code in question) to claim that this was a bribe. The Supreme Court ruled that candidates can make promises, including monetary ones, as long as they don’t promise to pay out of their own pockets.

Candidate commitments enhance the accountability of government officials to the people whom they represent, and assist the voters in predicting the effect of their vote. The fact that some voters may find their self-interest reflected in a candidate’s commitment does not place that commitment beyond the reach of the First Amendment.

…
The Kentucky Court of Appeals analogized Brown’s promise to a bribe. But however persuasive that analogy might be as a matter of state law, there is no constitutional basis upon which Brown’s pledge to reduce his salary might be equated with a candidate’s promise to pay voters for their support from his own pocketbook. Although upon election Brown would undoubtedly have had a valid claim to the salary that had been “fixed by law,” Brown did not offer the voters a payment from his personal funds.

…
In barring certain public statements with respect to this issue, the State ban runs directly contrary to the fundamental premises underlying the First Amendment as the guardian of our democracy. That Amendment embodies our trust in the free exchange of ideas as the means by which the people are to choose between good ideas and bad, and between candidates for political office.

There’s an interesting paper on this here. It’s the opinion of the authors that while such a move would violate USC 18 S 599, the code in question would be struck down by SCOTUS citing Brown v. Hartlage as precedent if the case came to them. Certainly candidates make monetary promises all the time. Obama’s already promised me $1000 if he’s elected.

Of course, I doubt a candidate wants to risk his candidacy on what the Supreme Court might decide. So, the safer choice would be to follow 18 USC S 599, to the detriment of the voters.
12 Ryan Says:
August 19th, 2008 at 10:17 am
Interesting. Obviously it’s a law that, like so many others, makes perfect sense in the abstract - we definitely don’t want our candidates running around promising people jobs to get elected - and is kind of awkward in certain circumstances. I’ll buy that SCOTUS might strike down that portion of the code, especially given the makeup of this Court w.r.t the one that upheld McCain-Feingold (as an example of election law vs. the First Amendment). I will add this exchange to my knowledge base for future reference.
13 Fargus Says:
August 19th, 2008 at 10:30 am
Yup, Chris, I’d read the same thing. That it’s law, but it’s a law on shaky foundations, but not one that somebody’s willing to challenge and risk being wrong. Effectively, the same thing as it just being illegal, right?
14 peter Says:
August 19th, 2008 at 10:59 am
Didn’t know it was illegal to name Cabinet members in advance — maybe Obama can nod and wink a lot.

As for Gates (who I presume is Republican) to serve in a Democratic administration: I think William Cohen served the Clinton presidency well.
15 Chris J. Breisch Says:
August 19th, 2008 at 11:00 am
Absolutely, Fargus.

Ryan, I’m not sure I agree. Which is more of a bribe? Obama promising Biden the SoS position, or promising every American family $1000? Personally, I think the latter is more contemptible, and yet candidates on both sides of the aisle from city government all the way up to federal do it every single election cycle.
16 too many steves Says:
August 19th, 2008 at 11:12 am
So I’m trying to get my arms around what sort of hope and change Joe Biden represents? He’s been in the Senate, like, 35 years and so is as cranky a good ole’ boy in the world’s most exclusive club as McCain (14 fewer years in the Senate). Audacious I’ll concede, hopey and changey, not so much.

The guy is as big a gas-bag as I’ve encountered, but I also admit to a certain bias against all things Democrat so that’s probably not worth so much in Obama’s analysis of who would make a good ticket-mate.
17 too many steves Says:
August 19th, 2008 at 11:16 am
Oh, and another thing, what do you good Dems think about Sam Nunn? Pretty well respected guy, across the board, too boring though? Too policy wonkish? Too old? Good military/foreign policy creds though (which is, I assume, why Biden is being considered).
18 peter Says:
August 19th, 2008 at 11:31 am
I think Sam Nunn is a good man, but too much of a blast from the past — he’s been out of government too long — sort of like naming George Mitchell to be VP.

I would like to see him pick Bill Richardson or (gasp!) Hillary — I think they would both the good VP’s, although I wouldn’t speculate on how they would impact Obama’s electoral prospects.

Failing that, maybe Captain Beefheart. An Obama-Beefheart ticket would be totally cool. Maybe Kinky Friedman?
19 Ryan Says:
August 19th, 2008 at 11:59 am
Chris:

I can say I also find it a bit distasteful, but I guess the relevant difference is that Obama can’t (virtually) single-handedly give everyone $1000 in quite the same way he can give out political appointments. Granted, Congress is involved in both, but Senate confirmation is a fairly low hurdle. That said, I’m with you in a fundamental sense.

TMS:

I’m not a Democrat, but I assume you were partially looking at me when you asked that, so I’ll answer anyway: I think Nunn is a pretty hefty intellect who would make an outstanding Secretary of Defense. As an independent, I respect his non-ideological, evidence-based, thoughtful approach to foreign policy. As a gay man, however, I have a different set of issues. If Obama picked him as a running mate, I would vote for Bob Barr.

Peter:

I think Cohen was fine (or as fine as any mainstream foreign policy person is going to be - you know how I feel about the lot of them), but I think it undermines a lot of what Obama has been trying to do to have a Republican in that spot. You can’t credibly claim that Democrats are good on national security if you keep assigning the top national security post to Republicans. I say make Lugar Secretary of State or something if you want a high-profile Republican in the Cabinet.

As for personal preferences for VP, I like the change crowd. I’d take Sebelius in a heartbeat. I think Reed and Schweitzer are both good, and I like McCaskill (although she might be too green [in an experience sense] even for Obama). If he wants an old hand, I’d take Kerry or Gore with pleasure. I’d even be fine with (Hillary) Clinton.
20 Chris J. Breisch Says:
August 19th, 2008 at 12:08 pm
Ryan,
We’re more in agreement than I thought. I can accept your logic.

peter,
I like Bill Richardson. If he were at the top of the ticket, I might actually have a decision to make. I’d still likely support McCain, but it would by no means be a slam dunk. He’d be a decent choice for Obama. Locking up IN or VA or both of NM and NV likely gives Obama the White House. Richardson might help with the last.
21 Gulf Coast Bandit Says:
August 19th, 2008 at 12:31 pm
So when I transplanted to Virginia, I began paying attention to this Virginia politics thing. Barack Obama will be in Virginia on Wednesday and Thursday, including my dumpy little town tomorrow. First time a presidential candidate has been here since Eisenhower, and I think it’s a good move from Obama; it’s economically depressed here, and hope and change will do well.

Now I highly doubt, and I have no sources, this is just a hunch, but it doesn’t make sense to me that Obama would choose today and then come to Virginia for 2 days. It doesn’t make sense that he would come to Virginia for 2 days and then choose Biden/Sebelius/Bayh on a Friday or the weekend. I think he’s coming to Virginia to announce Tim Kaine.