Decision ‘08

In A Surprising Finale To American Idol…

…Hillary came up short, yet refused to acknowledge the result. Said the New York Senator, as she dodged sniper fire from the Hollywood Hills:

“I’m winning the popular vote, if you count all the votes that were disqualified and invalid. David Cook simply cannot win the hearts and minds of the working class in the November contest against McCain, who can sing a power ballad as well as any man in Washington. Besides, the entire contest smacked of sexism. There’s a reason so many fought so hard and sang so loudly - not to be second-class citizens, but to demand an American Idol who will remember the other Idols who bravely forged the path we now follow.”

Neither David Archuleta nor Barack Obama could be reached for comment…

7 Responses to “In A Surprising Finale To American Idol…”

1 Chris J. Breisch Says:
May 22nd, 2008 at 8:39 am
I’m going to go on record as being the first to say this.

Tuesday was an awful day for Barack Obama. If he’d had many days like this in March or April, we wouldn’t be talking about him now.

I know he reached a delegate majority (whatever that means), but in terms of counts? Disaster. 108 delegates were available on Tuesday. How many did Obama pick up? 41.

Yes, 41.

I thought he’d at least get mid 40s, and really he should’ve picked up high 40s. These are not the numbers of a man who is cruising to a victory, but the numbers of someone who is lurching to one.

Odds:
Obama secures Dem Nomination this week: 1/50 (down from 7/10–this was a calculation error, was never this high)
Obama secures Dem Nomination by June 3: 1/2 (down from 9/10)
Obama wins Dem Nomination: 19/20 (down from 49/50)
Dem nomination decided on first ballot: 7/10 (down from 19/20)
Obama wins White House: 7/20 (down from 2/5)
2 Ryan Says:
May 22nd, 2008 at 9:54 am
Okay, I’m done discounting the racism factor.

21% of Kentucky Democrats say that race played a factor in their vote. 90% of those voted for Clinton. Do the math: 19% of Kentucky DEMOCRATS are racists. Obama had a bad day on Tuesday because he’s black and a large portion of the “good” people of Kentucky are reprehensible. If we disqualify the race vote (even the whole thing), Obama gets a 17 point swing and loses by “only” 18 (still a big loss, but much more in line with the Oregon win).

The only reason he’s not cruising to victory is that we put two of the most racist states in the Union at the end of the primary calendar.
3 Chris J. Breisch Says:
May 22nd, 2008 at 2:55 pm
Barack Obama routinely gets 90%+ of the black vote. No matter what the exit polls say, I don’t buy that race has nothing to do with that. Remember, we were told for weeks that he would (and did) cruise to an easy victory in NC “because of the demographics of the state”. That’s a nice euphemism for “there’s a large black population in NC that will automatically vote for a black man”.

Race has definitely entered the Democratic nomination process. And will enter the general election process too. Sadly.

Whether sexism has entered the nomination process or not is too difficult to say at this point.

Politics in the 21st century is ugly.

And getting uglier.

I really hope the “whitey” video doesn’t exist or that if it does it stays buried and hidden. If McCain’s people bring it out in October, I may just vote for Obama out of spite.
4 Ryan Says:
May 22nd, 2008 at 4:14 pm
There’s a difference, though, Chris. To be a black person and see one of your guys come this far is empowering, in much the same way it’s empowering to women to see Clinton get this far. A vote by a member of an out-group for a member of the same out-group is about standing against discrimination. You and I agree that it may be a less-than-ideal way to vote, but a lot of people vote for all kinds of idiosyncratic reasons. But there’s something a bit different - and incredibly objectionable - about a member of the in-group voting for another member of the in-group for the specific reason that they’re both in the in-group.

If I’m black and I vote for a black person because he’s black, it’s about reversing a legacy of oppression. If I’m white and I vote for a white person because she’s white, it’s about reinforcing that legacy. These are both “racist” in a completely non-normative sense of the word, but they are most certainly not both equally pernicious.
5 Chris J. Breisch Says:
May 22nd, 2008 at 6:41 pm
No, I totally disagree, Ryan. and this is why I despise “affirmative action”. Racism is racism is racism is racism. A difference which makes no difference is no difference.

and the conditions you’ve just made seem unreasonable to me.

It’s okay for a black to vote for a black because he’s black.
It’s okay for a woman to vote for a woman because she’s a woman.
But it’s not okay for a white to vote for a white because he’s white (unless the ‘he’ is a ’she’).

No, I don’t buy it. I never have and I never will. This is one of the few things that I’m an absolutist on. Racism is racism. Period. Always. Sexism is sexism. Period. Always. Discrimination based on anything other than qualifications/skills/personality/character is just wrong. Period. Always.
6 Chris J. Breisch Says:
May 22nd, 2008 at 7:36 pm
Big news of the day.

http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2008/05/florida_dems_sue_the_dnc.html

This could get explosive. I imagine that MI will follow suit.

The DNC is having a meeting on May 31st to decide “once and for all” what to do about FL and MI. I imagine that unless FL is seated fully, they will pursue their lawsuit.

New odds:
DNC May 31 meeting deciding something that’s acceptable to FL and MI dems: 1/3 (new)
Obama secures Dem Nomination this week: 1/50 (steady)
Obama secures Dem Nomination by June 3: 1/6 (down from 1/2)
Obama wins Dem Nomination: 19/20 (steady–for the moment)
Dem nomination decided on first ballot: 6/10 (down from 7/10)
Dem nomination still up in air at end of convention: 1/200 (new–see below)
Obama wins White House: 7/20 (steady–for the moment)

The lawsuit opens the door to a small, but very real possibility that FL and/or MI will sue to change the dem nominee. Obama now faces the daunting challenge of securing enough superdelegate support to overcome a worst-case scenario with FL and MI. Then any lawsuit by FL and/or MI becomes meaningless. By my count, he would need an additional 118 supers after his expected pickups by June 3. Frankly, I don’t see how that’s possible. The good news is that this scenario is extremely unlikely. About as likely as the U.S. Supreme Court intervening in a Presidential election and causing a state to certify it’s election results over the objection of the state’s own Supreme Court.

Oh, but that’s already happened. Funny how it keeps coming down to FL.

All of these odds will be updated after the meeting at the end of May. And again after PR.
7 Ryan Says:
May 23rd, 2008 at 6:03 pm
Well, it’s easy to feel that way about race when your side is the one that always wins. Privilege is privilege is privilege.