Decision ‘08

Oh, Yeah, The Primaries…

…well, you knew the story before it started - Hillary wins big (in Kentucky), Obama wins big (in Oregon), Obama declares himself the pledged delegate leader, instead of stepping up and saying “I’ve won this baby, now get out of the way”…but what scares me as a Republican is this:

Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) collected more than $31 million in April, bringing the total his campaign has raised so far this year to $167 million — a staggering amount that suggests his vaunted fundraising machine continues to churn.

As has often been the case with Obama’s fundraising, the breadth of his appeal is the most impressive trait. Of the $31.3 million Obama raised last month, 94 percent came in the form of contributions of $200 or less, and more than half of all the donations (52 percent) were in chunks of $25 or less.

At the end of April, Obama’s donor base had grown to nearly 1.5 million people, including 200,000 who gave for the first time last month.

Ouch…this man is going to be a formidable opponent…

18 Responses to “Oh, Yeah, The Primaries…”

1 Ryan Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 10:54 pm
At the risk of drawing the wrong comparisons, I’m happy to see the chickens coming home to roost. This is what the fecklessness of the Bush years has wrought; do make sure you enjoy it.
2 Ryan Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 10:55 pm
Also, perhaps it’s worth pointing out that I am in that 1.5 million. It marks the first time I have ever given to a Democrat, although it’s certainly not my first political donation.
3 Mark Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 11:00 pm
Ryan, whatever in the world is your first comment pointing to? Perhaps it was meant for another thread?…
4 Mark Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 11:08 pm
Also, my friend, I respectfully suggest it’s time to retire the “chickens coming home to roost” rhetorical device.

The two most prominent uses of this term, politically, were by Malcolm X on the occasion of the assassination of John F. Kennedy, and by Ward Churchill regarding the 3,000 victims buried in the rubble of the World Trade Center.

Not a good choice of associations that term brings up…and counterproductive to getting people to listen to your argument…
5 Mark Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 11:10 pm
And I don’t mean to single you out, or suggest you have violent intentions behind the term…just my two cents…it’s become a loaded phrase that is pregnant with vile associations…
6 Mark Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 11:36 pm
Then again, maybe it’s just me…I notice another commenter and friend of this blog, Miriam, used the very same term tonight, so perhaps I’m the only one that has such a negative reaction to hearing the phrase…

Ah, well…I can’t stop anyone from using it if they want to, anyway - nor do I have any desire to play the role of censor, however indirectly…never mind, I’ll just go to bed now…
7 Gulf Coast Bandit Says:
May 21st, 2008 at 1:31 am
Mark: You’re the only one.
8 Ryan Says:
May 21st, 2008 at 6:13 am
I did say “at the risk of drawing the wrong comparisons” to try and lessen the sting, as I have much the same reaction you do when I hear that.

My point is that Obama is a major fundraising force all by himself, but the fact that George Bush and the Republicans in Congress have been such uniquely (in recent American history, anyway) horrific leaders has supercharged him in a way that quite simply wouldn’t be possible otherwise. Like I said, this is the first time I have ever given to a Democrat and, while it’s partly because I think Obama is an outstanding candidate, it’s also partly because I hate everything the Republican Party stands for right now and would like nothing more than to see John McCain and all the rest of Bush’s cronies run out of town on a rail.
9 Chris J. Breisch Says:
May 21st, 2008 at 9:33 am
Well, I can certainly agree with running the Republicans out on a rail, Ryan. And, while I’m going to vote for McCain, and to re-elect my Republican governor (who has done an incredible job), I am seriously considering leaving the rest of my ballot blank. No other Republicans that I’m aware of (that I can vote for anyway) deserve my support or my vote. The NRC has gotten nothing from me this year, and will not.

As an aside, though, what is it, exactly, that makes Obama a good choice for President? Is there some success story of his that I’m unaware of? Some legislative accomplishment? Some examples of leadership skills or skills working with people of different persuasions and ideas? In short, does he have anything at all going for him other than charisma? I’m asking partially to play Devil’s Advocate, but partially because I really don’t know. The Obama campaign has done a masterful job so far of not allowing us to really know their candidate, so I actually don’t know the answers to these questions.
10 Chris J. Breisch Says:
May 21st, 2008 at 9:45 am
Oh, counts:
Obama needs 65 more to make the fake goal of 2026.
Puerto Rico is on June 1 and will award 55 delegates. From what I can tell, no one has any clue what’s going to happen in PR. So, I’ll split the total in half and give him 28. He then needs 37 other super delegates to move his way in the next 10 days to make that number on June 1. Given his recent rate of acquiring supers, that’s not out of the question, but seems unlikely.

So, it appears that the race will go on until June 3. 48 delegates at stake in MT and SD. I’ve heard that Obama is behind in both states, but also that he should easily win. Choose whom you believe. Until I get a better feeling, I’ll split the delegates again and give him 24. That means he just needs 13 other supers between now and June 3.

There are very few scenarios that I can imagine that would prevent him from picking up 13 supers in the next 12 days. I think it’s equally likely that we’ll see a flood of supers finally come out in the next week and a half, or that the flow will drop to a trickle. If anyone hasn’t announced yet, there’s really no point in them announcing now. But we’ll see. However, even at a trickle, he’s likely to pick up almost all of them, and might still get 13.

However, any solution for FL and MI that results in Obama picking up less than half the delegates (and any realistic solution will) changes the math again. If I were him, I’d want to pick up about 30 supers between now and June 3. That should be a comfortable enough margin to allow MI and FL to be seated and have him still have enough delegates in his pocket to secure the nomination (unless they’re seated fully and he gets no delegates in MI–a resolution that seems very unlikely).

30 in 12 days. Hmmmm…going to be close.

Why does he need to pick up the supers by June 3? well, realistically he doesn’t. But he wants to call and end to the process when the primaries end. And, as I’ve said before, there’s little reason for a super to come out in support of a candidate after June 3 but before the convention.

No odds today. I want to get a clue of how PR, SD, and MT go before I update them.
11 Gulf Coast Bandit Says:
May 21st, 2008 at 10:05 am
Ok, Mark, apparently Ryan has that chickens thing in his head too. So you’re not the only one. Maybe I’m just too young.
Chris: From what I’ve heard and read, Hillary is favored in PR to win by 10 or so, but it’s been a while since I’ve seen anything.
12 Bob from Ohio Says:
May 21st, 2008 at 11:06 am
Money is important but the presidency is the one race that has so much other coverage that money only helps so much.

How many ads can Obama run before it is all white noise?
13 peter Says:
May 21st, 2008 at 11:36 am
I think a good answer to Chris’s question in post nine (why elect Obama?) is given by Mark McKinnon, who resigned yesterday as McCain’s chief advertising strategist because he wouldn’t work against an Obama candidacy:

“Mr. McKinnon had said that Mr. Obama’s election to the presidency ‘would send a great message to the country and the world … I think he has a deep character and good judgment. I also think he’s wrong on some fundamental issues. But I believe he is honest and independent.’ ”

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/21/us/politics/21consult.html?_r=1&ref=politics&oref=slogin
14 Ryan Says:
May 21st, 2008 at 11:39 am
Chris, the thing that initially drew me to Obama is his willingness to question what I call the bipartisan consensus on foreign policy. He’s not as willing to question it as I’d like (as his dogged support of Israel indicates), but he’s at least open to questioning the idea that American has either a duty or a right to interfere in the business of other countries. A President has more control over foreign policy than anyone else, and Obama’s the guy who looks at our imperial adventures with one skeptical eyebrow raised. That matters a lot to me and would have earned him my vote even in the absence of a nutty warmonger on the other ticket.

There are a great many other things I like about Obama as well, and most of them are more personal in some sense. I like the sense I get that he thinks deliberately about what he wants to do, that he’s less beholden to the “pandering politician” game (although he is to a larger extent than I would consider ideal), that he rejects the chest-thumping “America is OMG so awesome” nonsense that so much of the country gets itself into a lather over, and so on. I do think he’s largely on the right page on things like taxes and health care too.
15 Chris J. Breisch Says:
May 21st, 2008 at 8:50 pm
Thank you for your reasoned answer Ryan,

Well, I think he’s totally on the wrong page on health care. Government involvement has never made anything cheaper or better, and frankly it’s insane to think that health care would be the first time.

BTW, if there are any of you who have not read Michael Yon’s amazing book, “Moment of Truth In Iraq”, you should certainly get hold of a copy and read it. This man has spent probably at least an order of magnitude more time in Iraq than any other “journalist”, and has seen it all, the good and the bad. He knows more about what’s happened in Iraq and what’s happening in Iraq than anyone else who’s allowed to say what they know.

And whether you’re conservative or liberal/Democrat or Republican/for the war in Iraq/or opposed, he has plenty of information in the book that will make you angry and plenty that will make you say “see, I knew it all along”.

His publisher defines himself as a “die-hard liberal” and says it’s the best thing on Iraq he’s ever read, so don’t think I’m trying to sell you on a conservative book. It’s just a book that’s worth reading if you really want to understand Iraq.

This book should be required reading for anyone that’s running for Congress/Senate/White House in 2008. And, if I could bring back Jim Crow laws, I’d make it required reading before you’d be allowed to vote in 2008 too. (Okay, bad example and choice of words, but you get the point)

http://www.amazon.com/Moment-Truth-Iraq-Greatest-Generation/dp/0980076323/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1211420810&sr=8-1
16 Chris J. Breisch Says:
May 22nd, 2008 at 9:56 am
According to someone with better math skills than I, Obama needs 38 more supers to “clinch”.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/can-obama-clinch-on-june-3rd.html

peter, you just quoted someone stating their opinion. It’s not an opinion that I happen to share, so I don’t find it convincing in the slightest. I’m looking for facts.
17 Ryan Says:
May 22nd, 2008 at 4:06 pm
Chris, the so-called “socialized” health care systems in Europe are generally both cheaper and better than ours, so it stands to reason that we could probably change some things. Principles are nice things to have, but there’s plenty of evidence that free-marketism doesn’t work in this case. There are simply too many advantages to be gained by pooling everyone’s risk.

Also, government involvement almost certainly makes sending mail cheaper and better than it would be otherwise. Imagine trying to get FedEx to ship a letter to Alaska for 42 cents.
18 too many steves Says:
May 22nd, 2008 at 4:20 pm
Chris, I won’t be voting for him, but I think the best evidence that Obama has strong leadership qualities is his position as the (nearly) Democrat’s candidate for President. Hillary is a stronger candidate in terms of experience, but this campaign has demonstrated the stark contrast in leadership style and effectiveness between her and Obama. Like you, I think he is wrong headed on all the important issues of the day (but I think that way of all Democrats, liberals, & progressives), but there is no doubt that he is the type of leader that many people want to be led by.