Decision ‘08

The Never-Ending Story

Tomorrow sees the world premiere of that summer blockbuster, “The Candidate Who Wouldn’t Leave”, as Hillary Clinton again tries to defy every measure of common sense by pretending she still has a chance. The impetus this time will be another huge win, this time in Kentucky, offset somewhat by what is expected to be an Obama victory in Oregon.

Can I muster any excitement about tomorrow’s results? No, I cannot…but I suppose if Obama were to lose in Oregon, that would be news. Meanwhile, Obama keeps adding superdelegates, and Hillary keeps on - well, whatever it is she is doing:

Senator Hillary Clinton, in advance of the possibility that the Obama campaign will declare victory on Tuesday based on an advantage in pledged delegates, told a crowd Monday morning that a Democratic nominee will not be determined by tomorrow.

“This is nowhere near over. None of us is going to have the number of delegates we’re going to need to get to the nomination. Although I understand – my opponents and his supporters are going to claim that - and the fact is we have to include Michigan and Florida.” Clinton continued, “We cannot claim we have a nominee based on 48 states, particularly two states that are so important for us to win in the fall. So part of our challenge is making sure that we nominate the person most able to win. And I believe that I’m the stronger candidate.”

Will Obama declare victory tomorrow? The daily email from his campaign manager seems to suggest a carefully parsed “absolute majority of the pledged delegates”. Wow! Can you feel the excitement?..

5 Responses to “The Never-Ending Story”

1 Gulf Coast Bandit Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 12:27 am
*snore* The only reason I’ll be up tomorrow night (well, I guess it’s tonight by now) is because I have a paper due the next morning.
Hillary’s hemorrhaging pledged delegates now, according to the Green Papers. Well, at least one delegate, anyway. I’m not sure if this has gotten any play on the news, but we might look back at this switch as the tipping point.

http://www.washingtoncitypaper.com/blogs/citydesk/2008/05/17/jack-throws-support-to-obama/
2 too many steves Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 6:03 am
Part of me is watching because I want her to be right, but mostly to prove all the smart people wrong.

Part of me is watching with the same generalized fascination I experience when watching a natural disaster as it happens.

Another part of me is watching, and hoping this continues, because I really, really want the start of the Fall campaign to occur in the, um, FALL!
3 Chris J. Breisch Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 7:30 am
He has 1915 as of this morning. Still needs at least 2026. That puts him 111 short. I’m already on record as generously giving him 63 today (he won’t pick up nearly that many–expect high 40s), leaving 48 to go, with PR (55–who knew that PR was bigger than OR and KY?), MT(25), and SD(23), a total of 103 remaining. He should be able to make 2026+ on June 3, maybe even June 1 depending on how many supers he picks up between now and then.

Hillary’s only reason to keep campaigning is to hope that she can keep him from 2026+ by June 3. She must do better in OR than expected to have a hope of that. Which seems unlikely, as most of the votes in that state were sent in weeks ago. She’s currently polling at 5 pts down, but the end results are going to be worse than that. Possibly much worse.

She is claiming a popular vote lead, as I knew she would. She’ll also be screaming regularly about those poor disenfranchised voters in MI and FL. And there’s the very real possibility that Obama will say or do something stupid between now and August, or get caught up in something related to his inner circle saying or doing something stupid. The alleged “whitey” video comes to mind.

too many steves is right though…in some ways this is like watching a car wreck or a natural disaster.
4 CrawlinKingSnake Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 7:44 pm
As soon as Tommy Lee Jones redirects Hillarys campaign with highway dividers well know its really over.
5 miriam Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 7:44 pm
Hillary is hoping or wishing that another of Obama’s chickens will come home to roost before the convention. One more would finish him off.