Decision ‘08

Another Big Day For The Democrats Approaches…

…and I’m predicting Indiana will go Clinton and North Carolina - well, it’s a toss-up. Obama SHOULD win, but everything’s coming up roses for Clinton lately, so I’m not giving North Carolina to either candidate yet.

On the positive side for Obama, he’s been doing quite well with superdelegates as of late, and I predict that if he can secure North Carolina, he will pick up quite a few more public commitments. A sign of Hillary’s increasing awareness that the math is just not going to work out in her favor is the fact that her campaign staff is in overdrive promoting what the HuffPost political editor called a secret Clinton ‘nuclear option’ that her staff in fact puts forth in the broad light of day, no secrets neccesary: seating Michigan and Florida.

The Huffington Post describes a “secret” plan that the Clinton Campaign has to seat the Michigan and Florida delegations. There is no secret plan. In fact, this story misrepresents the process laid out in the DNC rules for resolving the questions surrounding the seating of the Michigan and Florida delegations.

The Clinton campaign has been vocal in stating that the votes of 2.5 million people must be respected. Hardly a day goes by when a Clinton official doesn’t publicly declare that the votes of Michigan and Florida count and that the delegations from those states should be seated.

DNC members from Michigan and Florida have filed challenges with the DNC to seat the Florida and Michigan delegations. The process being followed to adjudicate these challenges is completely consistent with the DNC rules. The Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) is the DNC body charged with dealing with these challenges until the 56th day before the convention, and its process is public and transparent.

The membership of the RBC does not - in large part - turn over. A former Secretary of Labor, and the grandson of FDR who is a long time party activist and has been a co-chair of the committee for several election cycles chair it. Other members include a former chair of the party, Al Gore’s Campaign Manager (who is a former co-chair of the RBC as well), and an executive board member of the NAACP. Although the RBC is comprised of people who support both candidates, these people take their roles as party activits seriously.

The DNC process will decide the fate of the Florida and Michigan delegations. It is an open and transparent process — unlike the backroom deals proposed by the Obama campaign that would disenfranchise the nearly 2.5 million people who voted in Florida and Michigan.

Ah, the self-righteousness of political candidates! It all sounds great…BUT:

the voters of Michigan and Florida, as I have stated repeatedly, were disenfranchised by the stupidity of their own elected officials, who knew the consequences if they moved up their primaries and did so anyway, and not by the Obama campaign;
Obama was not EVEN ON THE BALLOT in Michigan; and
I continue to maintain that if Clinton wins the campaign through shenanigans at the convention, there will be a catastrophic reaction from young Democrats and African-Americans.

Tom Daschle (an interested observer, in that he was one of the main early Obama supporters, so take this with a grain of salt), had this to say:

The former South Dakota senator said he was amazed at the number of undecided superdelegates that have called him in the last 24 hours saying that it would be an “absolute disaster.”

Asked if the superdelegates would be “ticked” if the nuclear option were implemented he replied, “If we overturn what has happened in all these elections all over the country and do something like that, ticked is mild compared to the feeling I am getting from reports all over the country today.”

It’s this backdrop that makes Indiana and North Carolina so crucial if either candidate can manage a win in BOTH states. To quote Larry Sabato:

“…[I]f either candidate carries both these primaries, it will be an earthquake for the Democratic party,” he said. “If it is Obama, it should confirm him as the nominee. If it’s Clinton, it will shake up the superdelegates’ support.”

The road goes on forever and the party never ends…

8 Responses to “Another Big Day For The Democrats Approaches…”

1 Gulf Coast Bandit Says:
May 5th, 2008 at 10:34 pm
It’s not Hillary’s fault that Obama pulled his name off the ballot in Michigan. Besides, there’s a sizable chunk of Uncommitted delegates who are supposed to go to Obama. And, should we punish the voters for their elected officials’ stupidity?

I think Hillary wins Indiana by 8, Obama squeaks out of NC by 1. The road goes ever on and on…

In case anyone missed it, Guam split its 4 pledged delegate votes, 2 to Clinton and 2 to Obama, after Obama pulled out a 7-vote victory there the other day.
2 Chris J. Breisch Says:
May 6th, 2008 at 6:31 am
Headline on Drudge as I type this: DANGER DAY: HILLARY FACES ‘15-POINT DEFEAT’ IN NC

Riiiiiiiight.

I’ll believe it when I see it. The largest deficit I’ve seen for her in ANY recent poll in NC is 10. And most, while having Obama ahead, are within the margin of error for the poll.

I voted this morning in Indiana. Longest lines I’ve ever seen for a primary. A LOT of crossover voters voting for Hillary. We’ll see. I’ll say Hillary by 5 in Indiana, and I’m going to drop Obama to +5 in NC (had him at +7 yesterday).
3 Chris J. Breisch Says:
May 6th, 2008 at 6:59 am
Ahhh…the 15-point stuff is coming from the Hillary camp. That way, when they only lose by 5, they can talk about how much they exceeded expectations.

It’s all about spin.
4 Chris J. Breisch Says:
May 6th, 2008 at 8:17 am
Oh, and as far as the ’secret nuclear option’ goes, remember that I predicted this several weeks ago.

On another note, I’m apparently stupid, as are a lot of others. Adding in FL and MI doesn’t get Hillary closer to 2025. But what it does do is move Obama farther away from the magic #. Because the magic # then changes to 2208, a number that Obama can’t reach without a miracle.

http://washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080506/NATION/525934081/1001

I still put the odds at at least 2/5 that the Democrat nomination is not decided on the first ballot at the convention.

And, after the first ballot, all bets are off. All delegates are allowed to vote for whomever they wish.
5 peter Says:
May 6th, 2008 at 11:16 am
“I still put the odds at at least 2/5 that the Democrat nomination is not decided on the first ballot at the convention.”

If you are willing to put real money behind your prediction, I would be happy to take these odds.
6 Bob from Ohio Says:
May 6th, 2008 at 1:04 pm
It is Howard Dean’s fault about Michigan and Florida.

The DNC rules say there is a 1/2 reduction of votes for violating the dates for primaries.

This is the same penalty imposed on the GOP delegations by the GOP.

The DNC departed from their own rules and imposed a complete loss of delegates.

So, ha ha.
7 Ryan Says:
May 6th, 2008 at 7:43 pm
I love the Republican triumphalism in these comment threads. As if we weren’t already aware that the GOP is completely disconnected from reality, Mark, your “conservative” interlocutors want to make double sure we know it. I’m with Peter: if anyone wants to give me those kind of odds that the Democratic (”Democrat” is a noun, not an adjective) nomination isn’t decided on the first ballot, I’m in.

Also, looks like Obama is going to win NC by considerably more than 5. Any other bets you want to wager on, Chris? You seem to have really awesome predictive powers.
8 new homes for sale Says:
May 7th, 2008 at 4:02 am
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