Decision ‘08

Noah: No Chance For Hillary

Timothy Noah says Hillary Clinton supporters are living in the land of make-believe:

Here’s a rule I would like every political reporter, campaign official, TV talking head, and politician in the United States to follow. Go ahead and say, if you like, that Hillary Clinton retains a serious chance of winning the Democratic nomination. If you say this, however, you must describe a set of circumstances whereby this could happen. Try not to make it sound like a fairy tale.

Yes, Obama has dropped a few points in national polls, and Clinton has picked up a few points, putting her in the lead. The Gallup Tracking Poll had it 49-45 for Clinton on April 30, compared to 50-42 for Obama on April 15. That isn’t surprising in a week when Obama’s former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, elaborated on his most controversial statements at the National Press Club (click here for the video), prompting Obama to distance himself more emphatically (”I will talk to him perhaps some day in the future. … Inexcusable. … I do not see that relationship being the same after this”) than he had earlier in a stirring speech on race.

The only number that matters, however, is 2,025, which is how many delegates a candidate will need to secure the nomination. Obama has 1,488 primary delegates to Clinton’s 1,334, according to the Associated Press delegate tracker. Add in superdelegates and Obama has 1,736 to Clinton’s 1,602. Obama needs 289 more delegates to win the nomination. Hillary needs 423. There are three ways to win these additional delegates:

In the nine Democratic primaries and caucuses that remain, in which about 400 delegates are at stake

By winning over still-undecided superdelegates, of whom about 290 remain

By persuading the necessary number of superdelegates and/or primary delegates among the 1,736 pledged to Obama to change their allegiances. The former will be difficult to achieve, and the latter, though permitted, will be extremely difficult to achieve

It’s numerically impossible for Hillary to get to 2,025 through the remaining primaries and caucuses. In theory, Obama could get to 2,025 that way, but to do so he’d need to capture, on average, 71 percent of the vote in every remaining contest, according to Slate’s “Delegate Calculator.” That obviously isn’t going to happen. Hence the relentless press focus on the superdelegates. They will almost certainly choose the nominee.

A great debate has taken place on how superdelegates ought to choose the nominee. Should they vote their conscience, or should they follow the popular will? We could debate that one all day. The more relevant question is: How do superdelegates choose the nominee? Answer: They tend to follow the popular will. That’s why superdelegates gravitated to Clinton when polls showed she looked like a sure thing, and then to Obama when he started outpolling her. That’s why more than one-third of the superdelegates remain uncommitted now. Believe me, it isn’t because they haven’t been paying attention, and (except for a few head cases) it isn’t because, after 23 Democratic debates, they still don’t know which candidate tickles their fancy. It’s because they’re reluctant to be out of step with the popular will as expressed through all the primaries and caucuses. The longer any given superdelegate waits to make his or her endorsement, the likelier he or she is to choose whoever ends up with a plurality of delegates. Why else wait?

It’s a good argument…what is undeniable, however, is that a growing number of Democrats, both low and high, are starting to think Obama is unelectable (we’ll leave Hillary’s electability aside for another time). But Noah properly puts the onus back on the numbers - and when we engage in this exercise with him, only one plausible outcome for a Hillary win presents itself: a large number of pledged Obama supporters (Noah’s #3 above) change direction over these electability concerns.

I don’t see it happening, still…but I’ll tell you this - if Obama doesn’t take North Carolina (and it’s no longer a sure thing), a considerable amount of unease is going to be felt throughout the Democratic Party. Conversely, however, I feel confident in the following statement: if he takes North Carolina, it’s over, 100% (as opposed to the 98% confidence I currently feel that he will be the eventual nominee)…

6 Responses to “Noah: No Chance For Hillary”

1 national press club Says:
May 3rd, 2008 at 11:33 pm
[…] reporter, campaign official, TV talking head, and politician in the United States to follow.http://decision08.net/2008/05/03/noah-no-chance-for-hillary/Jindal touts La. to U.S. media New Orleans Times-PicayuneWASHINGTON — Fresh off his “Tonight Show” […]
2 Chris J. Breisch Says:
May 5th, 2008 at 7:32 am
I don’t quite agree with you, Mark about NC. Personally, I look at it this way. If he loses NC, he should withdraw. If Hillary wins NC, it’s over. Quite simply because too many holes will have been punched in his armor. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again. If Hillary wins NC, she will win every single remaining state, and go into the convention with insurmountable momentum. But she’s not going to. He’s going to eek out 7 point or so win in a state he should win by 15, but a win is a win is a win for him at this point.

On the flip side, if he wins IN, it’s over for Hillary. She can’t afford any losses in states that she should be winning.

So, in my opinion, a win in NC, doesn’t quite lock him in, but a loss definitely locks him out.

Current odds:
Obama taking NC: 4/5 (steady)
Hillary taking IN: 11/20 (down from 3/5 last week)
Obama taking nomination: 4/5
Obama taking White House: 1/5 (steady)
Hillary taking White House: will calculate if/when her chances of nomination improve
McCain taking White House: 3/5 (due to uncertainties about who he’ll face..when Dem nom is secured, will update odds up or down)

And I still don’t know which ballot I’ll be asking for tomorrow, or who I’ll vote for.
3 Ryan Says:
May 5th, 2008 at 11:20 am
A 1/5 chance for Obama to win the general? That’s… daft.
4 Chris J. Breisch Says:
May 5th, 2008 at 11:28 am
Obama’s odds at the White House will increase slightly when he secures the Dem nomination, but he will need to spend like crazy for the odds to approach 50/50 again. McCain is far stronger among independents, and surprisingly stronger among blue collar workers (probably because of the extended Dem campaign–some of these will hopefully return to Obama).

Speaking of which, as a resident of Indiana, I can say that he is spending like crazy. I’ve yet to see a Hillary ad on TV (I’m sure there are some), but he’s on at pretty much every break. I receive something in my mailbox daily from his campaign, and have only gotten one flyer from the Hillary people (Saturday, a day I got two flyers from the Obama campaign).
5 Chris J. Breisch Says:
May 5th, 2008 at 11:31 am
The other thing that should have the Obama people as nervous as a long tail cat in a room full of rocking chairs is this: In every single primary so far, late deciders have gone overwhelmingly for Hillary. Late deciders usually go for the challenger, and he should be thought of as the challenger in this race, and will certainly be considered the challenger vs. McCain. Obama absolutely can not win the Presidency unless he reverses that with McCain.
6 Mark Says:
May 5th, 2008 at 7:36 pm
You’re right that late breakers have been going Hillary’s way of late - that’s why I think she may take North Carolina (well, one reason). Your experience in Indiana mirrors mine in Texas - Obama spent a fortune. I had expensive multi-color oversize fliers in my mailbox daily, too, from at least the beginning of early voting…