Decision ‘08

A Nightmare Or Much Ado About Nothing?

The press and blogs are full of headlines bemoaning the continuing ‘nightmare’ facing the Democratic Party because they have a competitive race that may not be settled until the convention. Though this has hardly been the rule lately, in the past, it was quite common to not have a definitive nominee at this point in the game.

Does this mean that all the hand wringing is typically overwrought reaction from our ‘instant gratification’ society? Yes and no. It’s far from a nightmare that the Democrats have two heavyweight candidates slugging it out (though it’s got to be nightmarish for Obama and his advisers that Clinton won’t face up to the math). There is one group of individuals for whom the ‘nightmare’ connotation is entirely apt, however, and that’s the officials of the Democratic Party.

There is a good reason why Howard Dean and other Democratic leaders want the superdelegates to come out with their choices early - actually, two: Florida and Michigan. The one true nightmare scenario, at least if you are Howard Dean, is that the race ends up close enough that Florida and Michigan, if seated, would tip it to Hillary.

If the superdelegates declare early and give Obama enough of an edge that Florida and Michigan don’t matter, then everyone will be magnanimous and seat the two contested slates - after all, we wouldn’t want to disenfranchise anyone, they’ll say with a smile…

But if Hillary wins out, or even wins Indiana, it will be truly ‘rock and a hard place’ time for the Democratic bigwigs. The pressure from the Clinton machine (and it is a very, very powerful machine in Democratic politics) to seat the delegations will be close to unbearable, and yet the long-term harm to the Democratic Party of overturning the primaries and caucuses and denying the top spot to Barack Obama is almost incalculable. Not only would it be seen as the ultimate betrayal by African-Americans, it would seem that way to quite a few disinterested observers (even Republican observers), as well (not to mention the press).

And for young Democrats, who overwhelmingly support Obama, and who are, after all, the (potential) future of the party, it would be greatly disillusioning and a cause for massive discontent and cynicism…and yeah, if you’re Howard Dean, that’s probably got to fit with the ‘nightmare’ tag…

6 Responses to “A Nightmare Or Much Ado About Nothing?”

1 Fred Says:
April 25th, 2008 at 9:18 pm
In addition, people are not taking into account that pledged delegates are only expected to hold to their pledges for one ballot. If neither candidate has a majority on the first ballot, then things get really wild. I don’t see why any superdeleagte would announce a decision now when the same decision then would result in his wildest fantasy being realized.
2 Gulf Coast Bandit Says:
April 26th, 2008 at 9:26 pm
It’s very unlikely that neither candidate will get a majority on the first ballot, since there are only 2 of them. However, it is possible because there are still a few delegates pledged to John Edwards, I think about 16, IIRC. So if it’s ridiculously close, those Edwards delegates could be the difference.
3 Aaron Says:
April 26th, 2008 at 10:50 pm
In the event that the Democratic contest goes beyond the first ballot, does anyone know what the procedure is for selecting a running mate?

Will Obama be as free as McCain to chose whomever he wants or would the DNC just assign someone to him?
4 Fred Says:
April 26th, 2008 at 11:17 pm
The winner gets to pick anyone for VP. Although, if I remember correctly, Adlai Stevenson through the pick out to the convention.

Right now Obama has 1,724 delegates total, Hillary has 1,589 total delegates and Edwards has 18. There are 4,048 total Democratic delegates and you need 2,025 to win. So 1,724 + 1,589 + 18 is 3,331 pledged delegates. There are also 795 superdelegates, of which 489 have stated their support for Hillary or Obama already. So there are 306 Superdelegates still to announce and 411 regular delegates up for grabs. If the 411 regular delegates split down the middle that leaves Obama 1.724 plus half of 411 or 1,724 + 206 or 1,930, which is still 95 votes short of a majority. If the superdelegates hold out - and my math is right - there will be a second ballot.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/
5 Gulf Coast Bandit Says:
April 27th, 2008 at 4:56 pm
Superdelegates vote at the same time as regular delegates do - superdelegates can’t just “hold out” - although I suppose they could abstain, but the chances of that are slim to none.
There are 717 delegates remaining to be chosen. If they were to split 417-300 to Hillary, Obama would have 2024, which isn’t a majority. But Hillary will only have 2006 - also not a majority. Hillary has to get 436 out of the 717 remaining delegates to win the nomination - a wee bit over 60.8%. But she only has to get 58.16% throw the convention to Edwards’ delegates and, by extension, a second ballot. But because of the proportional nature of the delegate awarding, I’d be shocked if it happened.
Also, technically the convention nominates the Vice President also. Under normal circumstances, the Presidential nominee gets to choose whoever he wants - however, the Vice Presidential nomination could be a bargaining chip in the eventual settlement of this mess.
6 Chris J. Breisch Says:
April 28th, 2008 at 1:03 pm
Apparently, Hillary has decided to forgo NC in order to assure a victory in IN. I think this may doom her campaign. I have always felt that a victory in NC would be a knockout blow for Obama, and I still feel that way, but she can’t afford to lose IN in the process. However, her campaign has analyzed the demographics in NC and determined that she can’t win there. I’ll take their word for it, but it’s still unfortunate. A big loss in NC hurts her as much as a big loss in PA hurts Obama. It’s all about momentum at this point.

OR is the next big battleground for her if she can win IN and WV and a steep uphill climb for Hillary. I really don’t think her campaign can afford to skip it no matter how much she trails in the polls.

Still, she will likely win IN, KY, WV and MT. If she can pull out those, she has a decent chance in OR and SD. So, she still has close to an even chance I think of going into the convention with a near tie or even a lead in the popular vote (that’s if the popular vote in FL and MI are included).

In other news, the US Supreme Court upheld Indiana’s Voter ID law in a 6-3 decision penned by Justice Stevens (no friend to conservatives)