Gallup Daily Tracking Shows Some “Bitter” Aftertaste
After going up by double-figures over rival Hillary Clinton nationally in the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll, Barack Obama saw his lead completely evaporate in a somewhat-delayed reaction to the “bitter” controversy (or perhaps it was a poor debate performance), though he has pulled back slightly today:
The peeling away of national Democratic support for Barack Obama seen this past week may have run its course. After trailing Hillary Clinton by one percentage point in Saturday’s Gallup Poll Daily tracking report, Obama now leads Clinton by two points, 47% to 45%.
Today’s results are based on Gallup Poll Daily tracking conducted Thursday through Saturday, April 17-19, 2008.
Obama’s largest lead to date in the Democratic nomination race came less than a week ago when he led Clinton by 11 points, 51% to 40%. However, Obama’s support began to erode slightly even before the highly publicized April 16 Democratic debate in Philadelphia, and fell more significantly in the two days immediately after it. His advantage whittled away to a 1-point deficit in April 16-18 tracking, the first time since mid-March that Clinton’s share of the vote exceeded Obama’s, albeit by a statistically insignificant margin.
Other polls confirm a near-certain victory for Clinton in Pennsylvania (and it won’t even be close, folks - remember Ohio), but I still maintain it’s all for naught, as the fundamental fact in favor of the Obama candidacy remains (the Democratic Party simply cannot afford to overturn the popular vote and pledged delegate leader when such leader is the first African-American to not only have a chance to lead a major party ticket but take the presidency)….
2 Responses to “Gallup Daily Tracking Shows Some “Bitter” Aftertaste”
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April 21st, 2008 at 12:25 pm
I agree with you analysis, I’d only add that Hillary’s campaign is broke and that Pennsylvania will probably be the last state she is able to compete with Obama on even a remotely equal footing. Unless she wins PA by a landslide (ie at least 15, and probably closer to 20 points) Obama’s cash advantage will overwhelm her in Indiana, which she can’t afford to lose. And — this is pure speculation on my part — but if Obama wins Indiana, I wouldn’t be surprised if at least 40-50 superdelegates immediately endorsed him.
April 22nd, 2008 at 9:15 am
The powers-that-be in the structure of the Democratic Party can’t be happy as this campaign continues to expose the lightness of being that is Obama, and erodes his support among moderates and white blue-collar Democrats. I think Sean P is on to something. “They” are looking for any excuse to shut this whole thing down, and a win by Obama in Indiana would be a chance for a select group of superdelegates to throw their support behind Obama in an attempt to drive Clinton out of the campaign.