Decision ‘08

A Chance To Put The Nail In The Coffin

…figuratively speaking, of course. I’m speaking of the first real signs of a possible end to the Democratic race before the convention that I’ve yet seen - a narrowing of the race in Pennsylvania. While Hillary has to remain the favorite, a new poll has Obama up two, and the RCP average has him down only six. Pennsylvania is a dream state for Hillary, demographically, so this has to be seen as a repudiation of her hardball tactics, I would think.

More importantly, however, an Obama win would, for all intents and purposes, seal the deal. Hillary has pretty much banked on PA to continue her meme of “I win all the big battleground states so I’m the electable one”. Without it, her last remaining plausible reason for continuing will die.

However, Hillary has proven to be quite stubborn, or tenacious, if you prefer, and has shown no signs up to now of bowing to her inevitable defeat. It’s far from a done deal that Obama can win in Pennsylvania, anyway - I’m very suspicious of this sudden surge and will await further polling to confirm it’s not a momentary thing. If he somehow DOES win Pennsylvania, though, the pressure on Hillary to quit the race will intensify dramatically…

5 Responses to “A Chance To Put The Nail In The Coffin”

1 Chris J. Breisch Says:
April 3rd, 2008 at 6:36 am
Well, I have said before that Hillary was far from defeated.

However, if you remember my last post, I laid out a 3 step plan for each candidate to deal a death blow to the other’s candidacy.

Obama’s was
1) Avoid a crushing defeat in PA (pulling out a win would be huge)
2) Win NC
3) Find some way to deal with MI and FL without allowing Clinton a huge victory there.

The polls in PA and NC continue to brighten for Obama, so he’s on his way to 1 and 2. With those accomplished, anything other than giving Hillary her full delegate count from MI and FL terminate her candidacy.

Hillary has to have a double digit win in PA. She really needs a 20-25 point win, and at one point that looked possible, but not now.
2 Ryan Says:
April 3rd, 2008 at 9:35 am
I don’t think Obama’s going to win PA. Hillary’s numbers will bottom out and then start to rebound. It’ll look a lot like Ohio and Texas. She still won’t win the nomination, and I maintain that thinking otherwise is pure fantasy, but Obama’s best hope in PA is a small loss.
3 Sean P Says:
April 3rd, 2008 at 10:15 am
My prediction:

1) Hillary will win Pennsylvania.
2) Her margin of victory will be enough to convince her followers and the general public that she’s still in the race, but not good enough to convince donors, insiders and junkies that she still can win.
3) As a result of #2, she won’t have enough money to seriously compete in North Carolina and Indiana on May 3 (she’s basically in debt and behind her bills already).
4) As a result of #3, when Obama pulls ahead of her in Indiana, she won’t have adequate resources and will be unable to pull out another come-from-behind victory. She will lose Indiana by a small but significant margin and North Carolina in a landslide.
5) After losing Indiana and North Carolina, the trickle of superdelegates pledging themselves to Obama will start to grow.

At that point, Hillary will do one of two things: she’ll either suspend her campaign and negotiate with Obama for the #2 slot or she’ll continue the fight. If she throws in the towel soon enough (ie early May) she can negotiate for the VP slot. If she continues the fight, Obama will unofficially secure the nomination outright by the end of May (through a combination of pledged and superdelegates) and can disregard her at the convention.

One other point: If Hillary is unable to close the delegate lead Florida and Michegin will be her undoing, but not the way most people think. If Obama gets to around 1900 delegates (pledged + super), I predict he’ll take Hillary up on her offer to seat the Florida and Michegin delegation (with the Uncommitted going to him) so he has the delegates to win on the first ballot.
4 c. jerome ruth Says:
April 4th, 2008 at 7:31 pm
The DNC, its officials and members, have decided to set 2024 pledged delegates as the benchmark a candidate must attain before being considered the presumptive nominee. In more concrete terms, the apprehension of that benchmark by a candidate is the only accepted mandate of the people. Absent the apprehension of that benchmark by any of the candidates the DNC assumes the race is too close to call and consequently allows the selection of a nominee who represents the party to pass from the people to independent super delegates. To date the national discussion has centered on Barack Obama’s mathematically insurmountable lead in pledged delegates, his edge in the popular vote, his record breaking fund raising and his advantage in the number of states won. Undoubtedly, these considerations will weigh, perhaps heavily, in the decision of the Super Delegates, they are nonetheless not the deciding factor. Neither Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton can attain the 2024 pledged delegates necessary to assume a mandate of the people. Therefore, the Super Delegates will decide the nominee who will represent the Democratic Party in the general election.
5 too many steves Says:
April 5th, 2008 at 9:31 am
They’re paying the price for the silly, convoluted system they created. It’s clear that Obama is their best candidate; he’s demonstrated superior fundraising ability, superior leadership qualities, superior vision, and superior organizational ability, they should name him the candidate. They won’t do so because of the silly notion that it would be “undemocratic”. Who cares? The objective is to win the presidency with a candidate that most closely hews to the views and policy positions of the Party.