Decision ‘08

Absolutely No News Of Note In The 2008 Derby Today…

…so let’s discuss the writer’s strike, shall we?

Seriously, am I the only one who was taken aback on seeing the news that Romney withdrew? I knew he couldn’t win, but I thought he was going to continue on, for some reason. Anyway, my hat’s off to him for seeing the writing on the wall and not delaying things.

As for McCain, this completes one of the most remarkable turnarounds in American political history. Last July, I had completely written John McCain off, and I was hardly alone: he was raising no money to speak of, losing key staffers, barely registering in the polls, and strongly associated with a war that was going very wrong.

What a difference six months make! He is now the presumptive nominee, and furthermore, a nominee who made it without compromising his stand on the war (now going much better, thank you very much, in no small part due to the ’surge’ that McCain helped champion) or his other positions (as his refusal to kowtow on immigration at CPAC today showed).

So what are we to make of the Romney withdrawal and the McCain resurgence? Simply this: in a Republican race that was wide open and largely directionless, voters went with character. Romney was just too phoney - he said what people wanted to hear, and ultimately, because the things he said so often contradicted other things he had said previously, no one really was buying what he was selling.

McCain, by contrast, is like the honest but expensive mechanic: you try the other guys, with their flashy promotions and ‘rock-bottom’ pricing, but in the end, you go back to the guy who shoots straight. When he brings out the bill, you don’t always like what you see, but you drive away confident that the car is really fixed…

4 Responses to “Absolutely No News Of Note In The 2008 Derby Today…”

1 too many steves Says:
February 8th, 2008 at 6:56 am
Having seen him operate as governor of MA I must say your impression of him is wrong. But that is his fault, not yours. In any case, best wishes to him and a classy exit besides.

As for McCain, like you I am surprised at his total resurgence, but not shocked. George H. W. Bush, fresh off victory in the first war in Iraq, was overwhelmingly popular nine months ahead of the 1992 election and a virtual lock for a second term. We know how that turned out.

All the more reason to watch. McCain is in, Obama is surging, Huckabee is hanging around, Clinton is foundering - but all that can change in the next few days or week.

Fun stuff.
2 Aaron Says:
February 8th, 2008 at 7:51 am
I’ve seen a lot of people suggesting that Romney will come back and win — not just the nomination, but the presidency altogether — in 2012, comparing him to Ronald Reagan in 1976.

I just can’t see that happening. The only reason he got a late surge among conservatives is because he was the only serious non-McCain candidate left.
3 Clint Says:
February 8th, 2008 at 11:21 am
Perhaps Fred Thompson (if he’s not McCain’s veep, and if he’s serious) could do the 4-years-later thing — but it would require him keeping a high political profile for those years. Come to think of it, a good showing in the VP debates could be exactly the launch pad he needs.
4 David M. Smith Says:
February 8th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
Good points and analogy, Mark.

We voters want candidates we like and trust as much as we want candidates who say the right things. We value actions more than words. Romney tried to buy and talk his way to the nomination without having to demonstrate his sincerity.

I’m not sure it will go any better for him in four years unless he starts acting like a conservative, but my guess is he will fade into the background because he is more like who he governed as than who he ran as.