Decision ‘08

I Guess I Should Weigh In At This Point

I’ve been waiting to post on this most crucial day until a storyline developed, but it’s been damn tough to tease out. If there is a story this Super Tuesday, it seems to be this: Mike Huckabee has done better than any candidate with no money and no organization ever has. He won’t win the nomination, but he’s played the spoiler to McCain’s coronation that Romney couldn’t.

On the Democratic side, Obama has won a number of states, but it’s just too little, too late in the eyes of this observer.

Thoughts, anyone?…

UPDATE 11:25 p.m.: Two giant wins just announced that solidify the frontrunner status in both parties: Hillary and McCain, both winners in the the Golden State of California…and McCain wins the Missouri winner-take-all…

13 Responses to “I Guess I Should Weigh In At This Point”

1 Ryan Says:
February 6th, 2008 at 12:51 am
I’m not buying, Mark. I’m watching MSNBC right now and (assuming they aren’t completely wrong, which they may be) the actual delegate count looks incredibly close. With Obama’s financial advantage, I think he’s still very much alive in this thing.
2 Mark Says:
February 6th, 2008 at 1:09 am
Yeah, but he REALLY needed California…
3 Fargus Says:
February 6th, 2008 at 2:05 am
I don’t think that he did. He’s polling well in the post-Super Tuesday states, and he won a respectable enough number of states, by a respectable enough margin, that it’s not quite so easy to declare him dead in the water. Regardless, it’s looking more and more like the Democratic nomination is going to ultimately be decided by the superdelegates. I hope they have the good sense to hand it to whoever’s ahead in pledged delegates at the end of the primaries.
4 Bob from Ohio Says:
February 6th, 2008 at 10:10 am
Too soon to tell. The Dem rules keep Obama in it since there is no winner take all. California is a tough loss since it blunts the Obamania percerption.

I am not a Dem but I think this comment:

I hope they have the good sense to hand it to whoever’s ahead in pledged delegates at the end of the primaries.

just rubs me wrong. The concept of superdelegates is that the office holder’s judgment is important and they should support the best candidate.
5 Bob from Ohio Says:
February 6th, 2008 at 10:12 am
As for the GOP, McCain is the nominee. He already has 60% +/- of the delegates needed and a majority of the ones decided. Neither opponent can stop him.
6 Bob from Ohio Says:
February 6th, 2008 at 10:16 am
One last point about the Dems, what about Michigan and Florida? Is not there going to be heck to pay if the convention does not seat them?

Was not Florida the original “count very vote and every vote counts” state?

I look forward to great fun at the convention.
7 peter Says:
February 6th, 2008 at 12:00 pm
Nothing profound to add, except to note that headline writers are having a ball making puns on the Stones song (Goodbye Rudy Tuesday, Goodbye Super Tuesday, etc.) –
8 Sean P Says:
February 6th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
Bob: I have to agree that the Dems are in a real pickle there, in Florida because of the history and in Michigan because Obama took himself off the ballot at the party’s specific request.

If I was advising the Hillary campaign, I would suggest a “do over” — ie: another Primary in both states, this time with the delegates going to the winner. Demographically both states should be fairly strong for her — Florida has a large retiree and NY ex-pat community and Michigan voters are especially worried about the economy, an issue Obama has been slow to address. Plus, in both states the type of voters who supported Edwards (or would have if he was on the ballot, as in the case of Michigan) would probably have tilted to Hillary if he had been out of the race (IMO Edwards’s southern white and economic downscale voters probably lean to Hillary and his yuppie MoveOn voters lean towards Obama, and Mich and Fla have much more of the first 2 demographics than the latter).
9 Clint Says:
February 6th, 2008 at 3:33 pm
If I’m reading the numbers from RealClearPolitics correctly…

Hillary’s advantage is 974 delegates to Obama’s 906 — but if you take out SuperDelegates, it’s just 763 to Obama’s 778 — he’s actually ahead.

I don’t see any reason for Obama to bow out at this point — he’s got a number of states coming up where he’ll likely do quite well, and he’s still less well known than Hillary, so his numbers keep rising as he introduces himself to the voters. He’s still got a good chance to take the nomination, unless I’m missing something.
10 Sea-town Says:
February 6th, 2008 at 7:39 pm
THIS WHOLE DAMN COUNTRY IS GOING TO HELL IN A VERSACE HANDBAG
11 too many steves Says:
February 6th, 2008 at 8:29 pm
Mine’s Etienne!

I think Obama is the stronger candidate right now. The Clinton’s have been punching at him hard and he’s taking it all and staying close. Sure, he has to win eventually but he’s not losing and his momentum is good. I can imagine that his “audacity of hope” vision, his high-road(ish) campaign, and his overall enthusiasm, which seems sincere, will overtake Hillary’s down-and-dirty, scrappy, and cynical approach. Or, at least I hope so.
12 Mark Says:
February 6th, 2008 at 8:39 pm
Oh, I don’t think Obama should bow out, to be sure…he’s got a real shot…my gut says Hillary will carry the day, but she’s in for a hell of a fight…
13 Fargus Says:
February 6th, 2008 at 9:40 pm
Obama’s got a crazy advantage in money right now. He raised $32 million in January to Clinton’s $13 million. Clinton had to infuse her campaign with $5 million of her own money, but Obama’s raised $3 million since last night. I think the momentum is stunningly clear here.