Decision ‘08

ABMs Out In Force…

…Anyone But McCains, that is…as the sun rose today over a GOP nomination battle that is all but over, the first reaction of the conservative McCain haters (and they are plentiful) was that of denial, as best exemplified by Hugh Hewitt, who spent the entire day railing against McCain and spinning up far-fetched scenarios involving Romney victories. Here’s the real scoop, though…

California: McCain by 12 (pre-Giuliani departure, with Rudy pulling 12 himself, most of which will go to McCain)

New York: McCain by 19 (with Rudy pulling 21)

New Jersey: McCain by 18 (with Rudy pulling 26)

The facts of life, then: Rudy’s voters will migrate predominantly towards McCain, not because Rudy told them to, but because they are the voters who won’t be swayed by attacks on McCain’s supposed ‘moderation’, just as they weren’t turned off to Giuliani by the mere fact that he was a pro-choice Republican. In other words, these are voters who don’t require their candidate to vote in sync with the established conservative line on every issue.

And there’s more: Romney is reportedly pulling back on advertising for Super Tuesday. For Super Tuesday! You know, the 22-state marathan that takes place in five days. Does that sound like a confident candidate, or a candidate who’s trying to preserve what part of his fortune he can in the wake of the inevitable? As John Ellis notes here, a decision to hold off on spending at this juncture is tantamout to a surrender:

McCain is going to sweep the Northeastern primary states next week. Huckabee is going to roll along down South, thus denying Romney traction there. The only way to overcome this pincer movement is through vast expenditures of cash for television advertising. The only money available to Romney at the moment is his own. So the question stands: will he write the big check? Or will he say to himself: good money after bad? It’s a decision only he can make. If he decides not to write the check, McCain’s the nominee.

I’m not making my final call until after Tuesday…but it’s hard to imagine Romney pulling this one out of the fire. Romney’s supporters might want to quit torching all their bridges at some point soon…they might need at least one left to cross back on…

16 Responses to “ABMs Out In Force…”

1 Digger Says:
January 31st, 2008 at 12:20 am
So what’s your point?

Because McCain is probable to win, in your opinion, that true Conservative and former Republicans that have been sold up a river by “their party” don’t have a right to be angry, mad and absolutely disgusted with what “their party” has become?

That there is really not one ounce of true Conservatism left in the Republican Party?

You start with some sort of point about McCain haters, but then go into how it’s inevitable he’ll win, but never address why there is anger.

This McCain is a joke when it comes to Republican supporters. All the primaries have shown is that he has not received any of the Republican base’s vote.
2 CrawlinKingSnake Says:
January 31st, 2008 at 1:42 am
“This McCain is a joke when it comes to Republican supporters. All the primaries have shown is that he has not received any of the Republican base’s vote.”

Really, so hes one states with I’s and D’s alone? Thats odd. The truth is most of the R’s have become much more moderate after eight years of President Bush. Dont get me wrong I like Bush, but he hasnt been the “uniter” a lot of people have been looking for. McCain is the bipartisan candidate and lord knows this country can use some unification.
3 Fred Says:
January 31st, 2008 at 2:31 am
He won 36 percent in a primary that let Democrats register as Republicans. And that’s a mandate to unite the Republican party behind a candidate that enjoys poking his party’s base in the eye at every opportunity?
4 Chris W Says:
January 31st, 2008 at 8:29 am
Mitt Romney is the last hope for the republican party.

I rather burn my bridge than to hear McCain talk about the damn-bridge-to-know-where, again.

McCain is wrong, and will lose the general election, then maybe he will finally switch his label to democrat.
5 Sean P Says:
January 31st, 2008 at 11:10 am
You know, what’s really strange about McDS (McCain Derangement Syndrome) is the way Mitt Romney has now been elevated to sainthood. I could at least understand this sentiment if McCain was battling with a candidate whose conservative bona fides on the major party line issues was established (Fred Thompson, or George Allen had “macacca” not done him in), but Mitt Romney?

How is it that the man who bragged about voting for Paul Tsongas for President, who distanced himself from Reagan and swore he didn’t want to “return the country to Reagan/ Bush”, who spoke passionately about a close family members botched abortion and how it convinced him that abortion should always be legal, who signed a employer mandate health care bill suspiciously similar to the one Hillary Clinton is campaigning on, who tried to duck any and all questions about his view of the surge, who promised the government would partner with Detroit to revive the auto industry and who seems unable to respond to any question or issue before sticking his finger up in the air and seeing which way the wind is blowing is now the standard beared of “rock ribbed conservativism.”

I submit to all you McCain bashers out there: if Mitt Romney is your version of an ideal conservative, then it is Romney who represents all that is wrong with conservativism, not McCain.
6 Punditish Says:
January 31st, 2008 at 11:49 am
Sean hit the nail on the head. Romney has been absolutely canonized by the fringe elements on the right, not because he’s worthy of it, but because activists need to whip people up into a frenzy to stop McCain.

This McCain is a joke when it comes to Republican supporters. All the primaries have shown is that he has not received any of the Republican base’s vote.

He’s won closed primaries as well as open ones, and in the last couple states has split the conservative/very-conservative numbers with Romney. Romney “won” them in Florida by a whopping 2 points…33/31.

And, like it or not, the Republican party isn’t just made up of the far-right. There are plenty of moderates in the party, too, and they’re not nearly as fickle.

People will roll of lists of reasons they dislike McCain, but let’s face it: it begins and ends with immigration. Overzealous activists want to deport 12 million people, not matter how untenable and foolish it may be, and McCain disagrees with them. So, they’re throwing a massive temper-tantrum. That’s the whole shebang.
7 Aaron Says:
January 31st, 2008 at 12:36 pm
I’ve been a Giuliani supporter, but McCain was always my second choice. I have some disagreements with both of them on policies and Giuliani’s positions were different from mine on issues less important to me than those on which I differ with McCain (abortion vs. campaign finance).

However, I’d rather have someone with whom I genuinely disagree than someone who will always tell me exactly what I want to hear, or at least what he thinks I want to hear.

Sean, as usual, you are right on.

BTW, Mark, I think you meant that Giuliani is a pro-choice conservative.
8 Sean P Says:
January 31st, 2008 at 2:27 pm
Thanks Aaron. And I agree with your assessment as well.
9 John Says:
January 31st, 2008 at 3:49 pm
I find it interesting that McCain has been able to gain celebrity and political endorsements, while Romney has pretty much been left out of that loop. Romney is right, he is not a washington insider, but in this case it is hurting him a little bit.
10 Aaron Says:
January 31st, 2008 at 7:41 pm
Next week’s issue of The Economist had an article which sums it up nicely:
“A cantankerous crusader vs. a competent chameleon.”

They also expressed well the reasons that I feel I could vote for Romney if he were the eventual nominee (which is more than I can say for Huckabee): Romney has been a competent manager in business and politics.

But I don’t think I could ever be excited about him, as I am about Giuliani and McCain: “If only he believed in something, he would be a powerful force . . .”

People have made comparisons between Romney and Kerry due to his changes on the issues, but I think a comparison to Clinton (let’s hope we don’t start having to refer to him as “Clinton, 42″) fits as well: All skill and no principle.
11 Mark Says:
January 31st, 2008 at 7:46 pm
Digger and Fred: don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying you have to fall in line behind McCain…by all means, support Romney if he’s your man, or don’t support McCain if you can’t stand him. All I’m saying is that John McCain is a lifelong conservative whose avowed political hero was Ronald Reagan, way before it was cool…I understand he’s not a ‘dream candidate’ on all the issues, but he’s really not the nightmare he’s made out to be, is he?

He’s very strong on the Iraq war, for example…and the venom that’s being hurled his way may hurt him in the general election, just as the bitterness of Obama/Clinton may have lingering repercussions.

I guess what I’m saying in a nutshell is this: hate the man or his policies if you wish, but keep in mind that the alternative is likely to be (a) Hillary Clinton, or (much less likely) (b) Barack Obama, just revealed today by National Journal’s annual survey as the most liberal senator in Washington…
12 Mark Says:
January 31st, 2008 at 7:50 pm
Aaron: thanks, I’ll make that correction…
13 Clint Says:
January 31st, 2008 at 9:40 pm
Take a deep breath.

Watch the Democratic debate.

Now tell me President McCain is the worst thing you can imagine.

Both Democratic candidates are promising to raise taxes, pull our troops out of Iraq, nationalize the health care industry, and give us immigration reform that completely ignores border security.

I don’t like John McCain. I just sent in my absentee ballot for Super Tuesday and voted for Mitt Romney. But, if John McCain is the nominee, come November, I will consider him the easy and obvious choice over either Democrat, over Ralph Nader, and over Michael Bloomberg. I can’t imagine how any conservative could disagree, once the emotion of the primaries has passed.

But that doesn’t make him my first, or even second, choice among the Republican field of earlier this month.
14 Scott Says:
January 31st, 2008 at 10:39 pm
I’d hate to throw fire on all this :), but tell me, does anyone know what the procedure would be to replace McCain in the Senate?
15 Aaron Says:
February 1st, 2008 at 12:03 am
Scott: Janet Nepalitano(sp?) would appoint a Democrat who would serve out the remaining 2 years of McCain’s term.

But that doesn’t matter all that much, because the best we can hope for in the Senate is a trade-off between Louisiana and Virginia. And if we don’t nominate a presidential candidate who appeals to independents, it’s more likely that we will have to put up with (among other things) Senator Stuart Smalley — I mean Al Franken — for the next 6 years.

Also, if McCain takes Lieberman as his running mate (unlikely as that is) or gives him some other position in his administration, the governor of CT is a Republican.
16 Sean P Says:
February 1st, 2008 at 6:18 pm
Aaron: I don’t know the answer to this offhand, but wouldn’t Az’s governor have to appoint a replacement within ninety days and — if McCain resigned on Feb 6 or a few weeks later– wouldn’t said replacement have to stand for election on November to finish out the seat? Assuming that’s correct, that would seem to be the best deal for Republicans. Even if McCain loses in November, he will likely be very strong in Arizona, such that he would give a huge boost to the Republican challenger running to finish out the seat.