Decision ‘08

For The GOP, The Fat Lady Warms Up

The wires are full of stories that Rudy Giuliani has cut a deal to endorse John McCain on Wednesday. With Huckabee’s continued friendliness to McCain (including the very real possibility that he is staying in to siphon votes from Romney to get a VP bid) and the huge win in Florida tonight, it’s safe to say that John McCain is not just the favorite, but the prohibitive favorite. Nothing is a certainty in this crazy world, but this one is damn close.

It’s time for me to take my lumps, as well. I trumpeted Rudy as the frontrunner far and wide based on nothing more than his standing in the national polls, despite warnings from many long-time readers that he did not poll well in the early states. Like the Giuliani campaign, I badly misread his chances. It is what it is…but for this conservative who viewed the prospect of a Romney campaign with increasing nervousness (I truly think he would have been whipped - like Mondale bad), the sting of the Giuliani humiliation is lessened by the McCain victory.

McCain may not be able to stop the Democrats, either, but he has a chance…and right now, any chance at all is as good as Republicans can hope for…

16 Responses to “For The GOP, The Fat Lady Warms Up”

1 Ryan Says:
January 29th, 2008 at 11:09 pm
While I think it would be a hideous mistake for this country to elect any Republican at all this year, at least McCain is generally an honorable man. The very worst case scenario at this point still seems almost certain to result in the end of this country’s absolutely disgusting torture regime; I want a lot more, but that’s a better minimum guarantee than I thought we’d get. It also means there’s a chance to turn back the tide of angry xenophobia.
2 Mark Says:
January 29th, 2008 at 11:20 pm
Well, that’s what I keep trying to tell a friend of mine who is very liberal and hates McCain - that no matter what you think of his policies, he is an honorable man. That’s not very common these days, unfortunately, and it counts for something…
3 Ryan Says:
January 29th, 2008 at 11:30 pm
It sure does. While I am clearly closer to Hillary on policy, I am fairly certain I would select McCain over her. It’s especially damning for her, I think, because I was ready to pull the lever for her until the racebaiting and lying campaign against Obama.
4 CrawlinKingSnake Says:
January 30th, 2008 at 12:22 am
Ryan, Ive talked to several people here in AZ that say the same thing you do. That they like Hillary but could vote McCain. I like that it is the case but why would you switch between the two? Their stances on so many issues are completely different.
5 Andy Says:
January 30th, 2008 at 3:06 am
I find it curious that the Reform Institute shares the exact same positions & talking points as John, particularly on McVain-Feingold, immigration, national security etc. So who’s in the pocket of the other? If anything, it walks, quacks & smells like the duck what got around soft/hard money and campaign restrictions while sucking up to Soros and friends. How clever of Mr Straight Talker.

Sorry Mark, I just don’t see myself ever voting for this poseur. And I will pray that he never makes it to the Oval Office -I’d rather, shudder, that cHillary wins over McVain.
6 Andy Says:
January 30th, 2008 at 3:08 am
I find it curious that the Reform Institute shares the exact same positions & talking points as John, particularly on McVain-Feingold, immigration, national security etc. So who’s in the pocket of the other? If anything, it walks, quacks & smells like the duck what got around soft/hard money and campaign restrictions while sucking up to Soros and friends. How clever of Mr Straight Talker.

Sorry Mark, I just don’t see myself ever voting for this poseur. And I will pray that he never makes it to the Oval Office -I’d rather, shudder, that cHillary wins over McVain.
7 Andy Says:
January 30th, 2008 at 3:09 am
Sorry for the double post — the 1st (#5) had a screwed up link)
8 too many steves Says:
January 30th, 2008 at 10:02 am
Looking like a McCain/Giuliani ticket, no?

Romney’s done, he just doesn’t know it yet.

I’m looking forward to more Clinton/Obama bloodletting. I think everyone is vastly underestimating the skill and determination of the Clinton machine. Teddy’s endorsement of Obama is meaningless, and I don’t think Caroline’s adds up to much either. Sure, she’s classy and elegant and beautiful and has always stayed out of politics and the public eye, but that reduces the value of her endorsement.
9 Fargus Says:
January 30th, 2008 at 10:06 am
She’s stayed out of politics so her endorsement is devalued, and Teddy Kennedy’s is worthless because…..well, because why? Because you say so?
10 peter Says:
January 30th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
McCain would pick Billy Buckner before he would pick Giuliani as a running mate. Rudy has far too many negatives.

To quote Ed Koch from last night: “the beast is dead.”
11 Sean P Says:
January 30th, 2008 at 1:10 pm
peter: I don’t think Rudy has too many negatives to be picked as VP, but I don’t think he’s a good VP pick for McCain.

McCain needs someone who complements him where he is weak, which would be a popular governor with solid record on taxes and, if possible, immigration. Pawltney gets talked up a lot and, if he fits the bill, he could get the job (Tommy Thompson could have had the job offered up in a red ribbon if he hadn’t embarrassed himself during the primaries).

Of course, if there is a brokered convention, McCain might be forced to nominate Romney or Huckabee as his running mate to get over the hump on the first ballot, which would probably do him a lot of damage in the general (especially if he is forced to pick Huck).

Incidentially, how does everyone figure Huckabee helps McCain by staying in the race? Huckabee’s supporters have a very sour opinion of Romney and a relatively favorable one of McCain (at least according to Pew). Plus, in a two man race McCain would likely sweep the south due to his military background and Romney’s problematic history on abortion and guns, not to mention his blue blood demeanor and religion. Huckabee at least keeps the South competitive and increases the chance of a brokered convention by preventing McCain from winning enought states on Feb 5 to wrap this up.
12 too many steves Says:
January 30th, 2008 at 3:00 pm
Easy now, just an opinion, that’s all, and mine isn’t necessarily any better than anyone else’s - unless you think I’ve got some sort of special powers or something.

Politics is an insider’s game. If Caroline has stayed away from politics her entire life, what does jumping in now mean? Why does she have any credibility? Because she’s JFK’s daughter? Is she suddenly some sort of expert? More so than you? I think not. If I recall correctly, you’ve read the primary tea leaves pretty damn well. Her endorsement is no more credible than that of Chuck Norris, Angelina Jolie, and The Dixie Chicks. Unless, of course, I missed her elevation to Democrat sainthood.

As for Ted, his time on the national stage passed a long time ago. They still love him in my home state, but elsewhere? I don’t really know, but even in MA we don’t see or hear much from him anymore (except for his opposition to the wind farm). And it’s not like he was out front on this, taking a big risk. John Kerry deserves more credit and his endorsement has more weight.

My bigger point is this: the Clinton’s have a well documented track record of political success, they know the game of politics, and play it better than most. Don’t count them out, even if Caroline Kennedy and Ted Kennedy speak up for Obama.
13 Clint Says:
January 30th, 2008 at 5:51 pm
TMS-

If you look at South Carolina, the only demographic in which Clinton really beat Obama was in the white over-60 vote. I’d guess that this is also exactly the small slice of the Democratic party that the dual Kennedy endorsement is most persuasive to.

As an added bonus, it keeps Obama in the headlines right through Clinton’s pseudo-victory in Florida.

Still… I’d put money on Clinton being the Democratic nominee.
14 Andy Says:
January 30th, 2008 at 6:14 pm
Lessee, Kennedy, Gore, Kerry & Dean hate the Clintons? Plus Kennedy and the old guard would love to wrest control of the DNC back from the DLC.

Sounds like a battle in the backrooms over the heart of the party and Kerry/Kennedy are fully engaged.
15 too many steves Says:
January 30th, 2008 at 6:52 pm
I’ll be curious to see how the vote goes in MA - not that it much matters. With Deval Patrick (who became governor on an “hope” platform), the Kennedys, and Kerry (not sure where Barney Frank and Marty Meehan are on this) all on board with Obama, I’d be shocked if Hillary wins, more so if she even campaigns in New England.

Maybe the tide is turning against the Clintons, maybe they’ve finally pushed too far? Maybe the endorsement of such a classy person as Caroline Kennedy matters a lot more than I thought, especially in contrast to the seaminess of the Clintons behaviour.
16 Ryan Says:
January 30th, 2008 at 8:01 pm
CKS, it’s purely personal. I find Hillary slimy and completely amoral. She will do or say anything to win, and she has no ideal other than her own advancement. Even when I disagree with McCain, he is still one of the good guys. Character matters and only one of the two has it.

Or, from the other side: the only way I would support Hillary over a Republican is if the Republican were a seriously terrifying/morally reprehensible person. That means she would have gotten my support over a thug like Giuliani or a Jesus freak like Huckabee, but McCain doesn’t scare me.