Decision ‘08

Will Obama Continue To Underperform?

Since the fiasco of the New Hampshire Democratic primary polling, there has been a tendency among many, myself included, to feel that Obama will pull in less votes than the polls suggest in any given primary. Whether this is the Bradley effect, the young voter thing, or any other explanation cannot be conclusively stated at this time. For these reasons, South Carolina is a very interesting race as far as Democrats are concerned. Here is a state where Obama is up by double digits on the eve of the primary - if he loses, or even if he wins by 5 or 6%, the conclusion will be pretty unavoidable that his poll numbers cannot be trusted.

As for the Republicans in Florida ~~tomorrow~~ Tuesday, I don’t know what to predict. My gut tells me Romney will win, though that’s pretty much the last thing I want to see happen (if he does win, I’ll post more on this subject ~~during the weekend~~ in the days ahead). McCain has an outside shot, and Rudy?

Alas, Rudy…what can I say? I think he finishes third and exits the campaign, in practice, if not literally. That’s not a conclusion I’m happy reaching, but it’s my best guess at the moment…

4 Responses to “Will Obama Continue To Underperform?”

1 Andy Says:
January 25th, 2008 at 9:13 pm
Benn out of the loop for a while. Instead of a prediction, I’m hoping for a virtual tie between Rudy & Mitt, followed by a way behind McVain & Huckster. As for Obama, I hope he does cream cHillary across all demographics. We’ll see.
2 Punditish Says:
January 26th, 2008 at 1:33 pm
Polls were drifting Romney’s way, but it’ll be within a few points, I think. A few recent polls have had McCain up by 3 or so. And, amazingly, one has him leading by something like 11 points in voters who consider the economy to be their #1 issue. Surprising, to say the least.

All that said, I have to ask: McVain? Huh? The pun is not funny, insightful, witty, clever, nor does it even tap into a commonly-held perception of the candidate in question. It’s also not going to persuade anyone from voting for him.

Seriously, this kind of stuff got left behind in Junior High for a reason. I assue you, it impresses no one.
3 Andy Says:
January 26th, 2008 at 11:31 pm
My 2nd wish came true - Obama creamed cHillary 2 to 1.

With regards to the GOP FL primary, the more Mitt & McVain fight it out, the more McVain loses - both the FL battle & the nomination war. Rudy scores better in FL as a result, then it’s Mitt & Rudy sitting on top going into Super Tuesday. You have to admit, McVain blasting Mitt as a “manager” is lame. CEOs & Governors are not leaders, and McVain hasn’t led since his Nam days, if you don’t count the occasions of leading a group of legislative rebels on one issue or another. Finally, I think McVain is overdue for one of his infamous blow-ups, the sooner, the better. Go Mitt, go and push McVain over the edge
4 Punditish Says:
January 28th, 2008 at 11:12 am
McVain? I’m sorry, but I thought that sort of silliness was discarded in the vicitiny of Junior High. I’m all for the occasional scathing rebuke, but it has to be, you know, clever. Or funny. Or summarize a widely-acknowledge charafter trait of the person in question. “McVain” is none of those things.