Decision ‘08

Big, Big Trouble For Rudy G.

Personal feelings aside (I think you all know that I’m a big Giuliani fan), Rudy may be the biggest flop of a frontrunner since Howard Dean if things don’t change quickly. The RCP Florida average has 5 polls up right now, all taken since January 20th, and Rudy doesn’t lead a single one. In fact, he’s averaging third place. Four polls came out today alone (there’s a good round-up here) - some of which are not in the RCP average, but again, no first-place finishes for Rudy.

Of course, Hillary was counted out of New Hampshire and we know what happened there. At this stage, though, with all that Rudy has poured into Florida, it shouldn’t even be close.

If Rudy doesn’t win Florida, he is toast…

6 Responses to “Big, Big Trouble For Rudy G.”

1 Andy Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 12:55 am
Concur
2 Sean P Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
I’m kind of mixed on this. On the one hand, I think Rudy would make the best President of any contenders this year, so its sad to see him fade out (sadder still the way he did it — by comparison, Dean went out in a screaming blaze of glory).

On the other hand, McCain is now more viable than ever and, while I don’t feel the same way about him that I did back in 2000, I still think he would make a much better Presidential candidate and President than Mitt Romney Version 3.0 (or whatever version he settles on between now and election day) — not to mention either of the Democratic nominees. And since a vote for Rudy at this stage is starting to look like a vote for a third party in a general election, I am jumping to McCain’s corner.
3 too many steves Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 3:55 pm
Rudy’s decision on where to compete, and where not to compete, still puzzles me. Was he short of cash? Did he figure he would lose those places he didn’t compete for anyway? Also, what set of assumptions went into putting all his effort into Florida, i.e.; what sort of results elsewhere did he expect and how did that inform his decision to go for broke in FLA? With such poor numbers in FLA you have to wonder what the heck he’s been doing there for the last few weeks. Of course, it could be that he’s done a really good job getting his message out and, to use campaign parlance, it just isn’t “resonating” with the voters.
4 Aaron Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 7:31 pm
I understand him not wanting to compete in places full of Evangelical voters who place a premium on social conservatism (IA and SC), but I think Rudy could have done reasonably well in NH, MI, and NV had he tried. Even if he hadn’t won a second- or third-place finish would have helped to keep his name in the news.

All in all, I agree with you, Sean. I’ve already mailed off my absentee ballot (for Rudy), but I doubt he’ll win TN or even come close — he didn’t even have any delegates on the ballot, so any changes in who I’m supporting won’t be substantive, but if Giuliani can’t even pull a close second in FL, I’ll be backing McCain.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Mayor Giuliani ends up doing the same himself.
5 Sean P Says:
January 26th, 2008 at 12:17 am
Yeah, I think in hindsight the decision to skip Michigan was his biggest blunder. The state is hurting economically and McCain’s “straight talk” — accurate though it may be — was a huge blunder on his part, which would have given him a big opening. Romney won with a last minute, blatant pander to the local economy, but a serious, positive — and realistic — economic plan from Rudy could have sealed the deal.

And as for Nevada, it does have a large Mormon vote in the primary, but it also has a strong social libertarian tilt that would have guaranteed him at least given him a strong second, maybe a win, given how poorly Romney did overall coming into that race.
6 Ryan Says:
January 27th, 2008 at 10:26 am
Needless to say, I’m pretty pleased. I consider Giuliani the absolute worst candidate on either side.