Decision ‘08

Cedar Fever Has Struck Again…

…and I’m too tired to blog much, even though we have the big Michigan primary tomorrow (if you’re fortunate enough to not know what cedar fever is, count your blessings. Austin is one of the worst cities in the country for allergy sufferers, and though it usually doesn’t get to me quite this bad, this year has been brutal).

So what will happen in Michigan? Polls indicate a narrow Romney victory, perhaps, though New Hampshire taught us what relying on the polls can do to you. What the hell, I’ll go out on a limb and predict the night will belong to McCain. Why? Because Romney has underperformed expectations everywhere else, and his margin is so slim that any underperformance at all will give the victory to McCain, who has overperformed in the early going.

It’s as good a reason as any I can think of…

10 Responses to “Cedar Fever Has Struck Again…”

1 Andy Says:
January 15th, 2008 at 12:27 am
Unless I’m mistaken, Mitt can take 2nd or even 3rd and still lead the delegate count. The gold, silver & bronze medals only matter to the pundits
2 too many steves Says:
January 15th, 2008 at 2:07 pm
Are delegates committed following the caucus/primary? Is this only able to be changed via brokering by the candidate to whom the delegates are committed?
3 Andy Says:
January 15th, 2008 at 5:38 pm
Time permitting, I’m thinking of creating a consolidated table on how the DNC/GOP delegates are distributed for all 50 States based on this resource, The Green Papers. You’d think somebody has already created & posted such, but to date I haven’t found it. At least you can click around from amongst a bunch of tables and see how each State does its thing and when.

Of interest on Super Tuesday, Arizona is a winner-take-all closed primary, definitely interesting to see if McVain loses his home State and the 50 delegates up for grabs there.

Another reason why Hunter & Paul won’t withdraw until the bitter end is this bit of nugget from The Republican Source:

Nevertheless, a withdrawing candidate may not release delegates pledged to him/her so long as the presidential nomination is still undetermined (after all, these delegates can be a valuable bargaining chip for future considerations). Even where a nomination is already determined, a presidential candidate who represents the Party fringe might hold onto his delegates as long as possible in order to get concessions.
4 Ryan Says:
January 15th, 2008 at 6:38 pm
McVain, cHillary… Andy, you really raise the level of discourse. Thanks for that.
5 Sean P Says:
January 15th, 2008 at 6:59 pm
According to Jim Gerraghty, a leaked partial exit poll has Romney beating McCain 36% to 29%. I really, really hope that poll is as accurate as the Obama/ Hillary NH poll, but somehow I doubt it.
6 Andy Says:
January 15th, 2008 at 7:47 pm
Ryan, I would think there’s a world of difference between a nickname that incorporates a known character trait — I think John is vain, or Hillary chills my blood) as opposed to the spurious bombs that you lob.
7 Andy Says:
January 15th, 2008 at 7:55 pm
Sean P, Mitt is winning the GOP vote hands down. Question is whether enough Dems and Indys can skew it to John’s advantage.

On a truly positive note, Hillary is being frozen out with only 25% of the Black vote versus 67% for Mr. Uncommitted. I guess Slick wasn’t black enuf for Motown. That is indeed heartwarming on such a chilly day.
8 Tom Says:
January 15th, 2008 at 9:37 pm
Cedar Fever ? … must be Glowball Warming and, of course, George Bush.

P.S.: Time for Fred to take South Carolina. I donated on Saturday
9 Ryan Says:
January 16th, 2008 at 10:57 am
Andy, calling them names is childish and stupid. As are you. How’s that for a spurious bomb?
10 Andy Says:
January 16th, 2008 at 9:03 pm
Ryan, you just had to go ahead and made my day

Stupid is getting your g-string tied in Gordian knots with spurious comments like this:

… the problem is experience doesn’t matter as much when you’re flat-out insane. Giuliani’s foreign policy is essentially “how soon before we can test the Death Star on Iran?”, McCain wants a 100-year occupation of Iraq, Huckabee wants a 30 percent sales tax, and Romney is so phony he actually has “Folex” stamped on his forehead. Sure they have experience, but sane people won’t vote for them.

Talk about fear & loathing in the abscesses of your mind.

1) When did McCain ever say he wants a 100-year occupation? Never! On one hand you put words in his mouth, then defend his childlike vanity against others who think he’s sincerely wrong on some issues.

2) What’s insane about a 30% sales tax if the IRS, income taxes and a host of other taxes are eliminated in the process? One would pay about the same, minus the paperwork drudgery. Oh yeah, silly me - Turbotax and tax accountants would be out of a job.

3) Oddly enough, I didn’t see “Folex” anywhere last night. But I did see way more real AND sane people without Rolexes who voted for Mitt than all the GOP competition put together in the run-up. Are you labeling all those grownups with your word du ~~jour~~ annus “insane”? Of course you are, kid. It’s called projection.

Please get back on your psychotropic meds before you hurt yourself or the widdle voices lodged at the center of your mind. If you dare.