Decision ‘08

Looking Ahead: Romney’s Last Stand?

Quick takes on the road ahead:

Romney must win Michigan. Period. Polls show him ahead of McCain, but narrowly, and McCain has the momentum.

Clinton has a huge lead in Nevada, and has regained the upper hand in the Democratic race. Overnight, the narrative has changed completely for the donkeys.

Huckabee has a large lead in South Carolina, and will likely win there. If Romney can’t take Michigan, you’re talking a three-man race for the GOP (McCain, the still-untested Giuliani, and Huckabee).

Edwards is toast (he always was, but he’s officially toast now). The Democrats are down to two…

7 Responses to “Looking Ahead: Romney’s Last Stand?”

1 Andy Says:
January 9th, 2008 at 3:41 am
Even so, Romney is currently in the lead with 30 delegates to Huckster’s 21 & McCain’s 10. Even Thompson has 6 to Paul’s 2.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#R

Granted some States are winners-take-all events, nevertheless, Mitt’s in the lead, so why would Michigan be the last stand? Unless I missed it, I haven’t seen anything to indicate it s winner take all there. That plus the GOP stripped Michigan of 1/2 its 60 delegates leaving 30. Who will the GOP award the other 30? McCain? I don’t think so. I don’t think the GOP powers-that-be are so hot on McCain.

Also, worth mentioning is that the DNC stripped MI of all delegates, leaving them 0, leading Obama, Edwards and Richardson to take their names off the ballot. Conceiveably, cHillary could lose every State primary/caucus and the DNC deus ex machina would award her her coronation anyway, unless Howard Dean has something to say about it.

In retrospect, they, especially Obama, must be kicking themselves for “boycotting” those primaries, since it leaves them fighting with an arm & leg tied behind their backs. Obama should certainly kick himself for boycotting Fox News, since he could have reached out to more independents/moderates, thus helping to turn out more supporters.
http://blog.mlive.com/kzgazette/2008/01/michigan_primary_one_week_away/print.html
2 too many steves Says:
January 9th, 2008 at 5:51 pm
Romney never had a good chance, he’s a Mormon.

But I don’t think he’ll drop out, he’s got plenty of cash to stay in, and so long as there are delegates going to several candidates the “brokered convention” buzz I’ve been listening to will keep his hopes alive.
3 Sean P Says:
January 9th, 2008 at 8:18 pm
What’s important to remember is that the early, pre Florida state primary/ caucus schedule benefitted Romney immensly. New Hampshire is a de-facto home state (given the number of NH commuters to Boston and the fact that NH news/radio comes from there as well), his father was Governor of Michigan for 12 years, and Wyoming & Nevada both have sizeable Mormon populations — easily enough to decide the election in a multi-candidate field. His only weak spot was Iowa, which was why he pumped the $$ and organization there and effectively scared his competition away.

This is why Romney is toast if he doesn’t win Michigan. After Jan 18t, the contests move to states where he doesn’t have a geographical, familial or religious advantage (and Rudy does, such as RI, Connecticut, NY, NJ and Florida). If Romney he can’t win consistenly in the states where he had those advantages he has no chance of being the nominee.
4 too many steves Says:
January 9th, 2008 at 10:22 pm
What religious advantage? He’s a Mormon, even Christians think of him as a kook, at best, or a heretic, at worst. He never had a chance.
5 Sean P Says:
January 10th, 2008 at 2:36 pm
toomany:

Wyoming and Nevada have among the highest mormon populations, per capita, of any state in the US (see:http://www.adherents.com/largecom/com_lds.html)
Plus, keep two things in mind: #1) Mormon population in the primary is probably higher since Mormons tend to vote Republican and #2) this is a very fractured race, where 30% is all that is needed to win most early states.
6 too many steves Says:
January 10th, 2008 at 2:45 pm
Fair enough, I’ll concede he has some advantage there. He should also have some legacy advantage in Michigan. I guess my perspective comes from looking at the totality of individual State races, and that view tells me he can’t win.

I wish I were wrong, I like the guy, he was my governor, and I think he has the right skills - leadership & executive - to be an effective POTUS. I expect to vote for him on Feb 5, if he is still on the ballot. I just don’t see him as having a good chance of winning.
7 Andy Says:
January 16th, 2008 at 1:17 am
TMS, feel better?