No Sure Things Yet
Obama’s momentum is undeniably real, and the wear is starting to show in the Hillary camp – and with Hillary herself. The vote in New Hampshire seems a foregone conclusion – but it’s wrong to say that Hillary is out with a loss. In fact, she still polls comfortably ahead in such delegate-rich states as Florida and California, and she leads Nevada by double-digits. She is hurt, but even with the expected loss tomorrow, she is not mortally wounded. There will be a major campaign shake-up and relaunch, of course, but Obama still has a tough fight ahead.
Similarly, on the Republican side, though McCain is on a roll, Romney may yet pull it off tomorrow (I don’t think he will, but I won’t be shocked if he does). Four Republicans can conceivably still make a claim on realistic paths to the nomination (Giuliani, Huckabee, Romney, and McCain). The smart money for now is on McCain and Obama – but let’s not get carried away just yet.
So who has the most to lose tomorrow? Romney. Hillary has already written off New Hampshire as a loss. Romney still thinks he can pull it off. If McCain wins, Romney’s prospects become quite a bit dimmer…
Good analysis. I concur with you, Mark. Hillary’s not entrely done. I do think she’s self-destruct before all’s said and done (we’re seeing hints of it already), but Obama isn’t a foregone conclusion. I daresay he’s getting close, though.
Definitely agree about Romney. I don’t see how he survives another loss. He’s in bad shape even with a win, since it’d certainly be a narrow one. He’s fighting only for the right to keep going at this point.
I think the best thing for us is that cHillary goes down in flames so that the Clinton brand is forever vanquished to the ashheap of history. Any close calls would only be a redux of 2000 where Bush “stole” the election. Obama needs to put a stake in her heart then bury her.
As for predictions, here’s my take…
GOP:Romney edges out McCain, Thompson in comfortable 3rd, Huckabee 4th, just barely ahead of Paul and Rudy bring up the rear.
DNC: Obama by 20, Edwards edges out a tearful Hillary and Richardson hanging way out back with Kucinich.
That’s my guess and I’m sticking to it.
Sen. Obama’s free ride.
I believe that the media is giving Sen. Obama a totally free ride, free help with attacks, free airtime, free face time, free…… It is OK to attack a woman or a hero but do not critique the media darling. They did not love Jesse or Al Shapton. Obama is no Martin Luther King – or is he? Hillary is no devil, John Mc Cain is no fool. Let treat everyone the same – or at least close to it. God Bless the USA