Decision ‘08

And Then Came New Hampshire

Those looking to read the tea leaves for Tuesday’s New Hampshire vote are asking if the Iowa victories of Obama and Huckabee have wings. In Obama’s case, the answer appears to be yes. Obama is tied, trailing by one, or leading by as much as 12 in every major poll in New Hampshire taken after Iowa. As one who has preached, if not the inevitability of Hillary, then the damn near certainty, I must be the first to say that a loss in New Hampsire puts her prospects in doubt (it doesn’t knock her out, but unlike Rudy, she was expected to win these early states). Intrade has Obama’s victory chances at 80%.

On the Republican side, Huckabee trails badly. Virtually every post-Iowa poll has John McCain either leading or neck-in-neck with Romney. Again, Intrade has McCain as the prohibitive favorite, with an 81% chance of victory in New Hampshire. This is pretty much Romney’s last stand, though I won’t go so far as to say he withdraws if he doesn’t win (though I still say Fred Thompson is a good bet to go, and go quickly). Remarkably, John McCain has returned from the dead (campaign-wise), and he looks like the man to beat at the moment.

That’s a prospect I both welcome and dread. I don’t think he runs as well as Rudy in the general election - his age WILL be a factor, make no mistake. Giuliani’s positions on abortion and gay rights also make him more attractive to independents. McCain has had to move right, and his position on Iraq has made him less of the independent darling than he once was.

Still, he’s a good man, and he would make an admirable candidate. Unfortunately, I felt the same way about Bob Dole…

UPDATE 9:52 p.m.: USA Today/Gallup: Obama +13, McCain +4…CNN/WMUR: Obama +10, McCain +6…Intrade now has Obama at 87.5% (and 87% for South Carolina), McCain at 80% (and 35% for South Carolina)…

9 Responses to “And Then Came New Hampshire”

1 Clint Says:
January 6th, 2008 at 5:17 pm
“(though I still say Fred Thompson is a good bet to go, and go quickly)”

You keep saying this, and I keep scratching my head. Thompson isn’t expecting to place in New Hampshire, so why would he drop out when that happens? Thompson’s Do-or-Die state is South Carolina. If he doesn’t come in at least second there he’s probably out. If he does get at least second, he’ll stick around another week until Super-Duper-Tuesday.
2 Mark Says:
January 6th, 2008 at 5:20 pm
You’ve got a point - there’s definitely a chance Thompson will stay in until Super Tuesday. I’m not trying to prematurely write him off, but I can’t see any possible narrative that puts him back in the race. He’s running a distant third in South Carolina at the moment, or even fourth, as McCain as inching up in that state also…
3 Sean P Says:
January 6th, 2008 at 7:21 pm
Fred Thompson is already finished, and he knows it. Right now, he’s staying in the race as pennance to McCain for almost muscling him out of the race six months ago. Notice how he isn’t campaigning in New Hampshire, where he would probably split the anti-Romney vote, but he IS campaigning in South Carolina, where he would likely split the southern favorite-son vote?
4 Greg Says:
January 6th, 2008 at 8:07 pm
I think Thompson is waiting to see where the Romney vote goes. Since Thompson is the highest-polling conservative other than Romney, he probably has strong comeback hopes if he does well in SC.
5 Clint Says:
January 6th, 2008 at 10:58 pm
As much as I like Thompson’s stands on the issues… I agree that he’s probably not going anywhere. His big problem (surprisingly for a professional actor) is in articulating his views. He has strong convictions, and a good grasp of the issues, but he’s just not inspiring when he speaks — he doesn’t sound passionate.

Sean — I don’t think it’s at all that complicated or Machiavellian. It’s just that SC is his best shot to make a move, if Huckabee has imploded sufficiently by then.
6 Aaron Says:
January 7th, 2008 at 12:54 am
I came across an interesting article from the Time of London a few hours ago. This main point that I took from it focuses on the 38% likelihood that a GOP candidate will be in the White House in 2009.

The columnist, Tim Hames, suggests that because the 38% is an average of all GOP candidates against all Dems, the prospect of a GOP president rises when the nominee is more moderate (such as McCain or Giuliani) and declines for the more conservative candidates (Huckabee and Romney), and that Thompson has exactly a 38% chance (if he gets the nomination).

I’m hoping that the calculation actually includes Ron Paul with his zero percent chance of winning a general election, but since he also has a zero percent chance of getting the GOP nod, his prospects against Hillary probably aren’t included.

Anyway, while I am a Giuliani supporter, I think that McCain is, at worst, only slightly less electable (due more to his age than any policy reasons) and I would be very pleased with him as a candidate.
7 CinemActivist Says:
January 8th, 2008 at 6:06 pm
What you think of Giuliani deciding not to attend Iowa and NH? I find it a bit pompous. You should check out this DVD “Giuliani Time”. It’ll tell you a lot about what Giuliani really is like.

You can get it here: http://www.cinemalibrestore.com
8 Sean P Says:
January 11th, 2008 at 7:48 pm
Clint:

Maybe, but just for s&g here’s a link from someone else who recently made this speculation:

http://www.eyeon08.com/2008/01/11/fred-for-real-or-a-stalking-horse/
9 Connecting News, Commentaries and Blogs at NineReports.com - Says:
January 26th, 2008 at 11:38 pm
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