Huckabee Wins, Dems Still In Doubt
It couldn’t be closer on the Democratic side, but Huckabee is going to win Iowa going away on the Republican side (that’s one prediction I missed – the other, that Fred Thompson would not finish third, is still in doubt, though Thompson is holding on to third by a thin margin at the moment)…more later…
UPDATE 8:30 p.m.: And it’s Obama for the Democrats, making me 0-2 and showing just why you can’t afford not to be GLUED to D’08 throughout the 2008 primary season. Looks like Novak was right – on the Democratic side, though he picked Romney for the Republicans…
UPDATE 9:47 p.m.: Hillary currently in third, and McCain and Thompson are neck-in-neck for third in the GOP race…Chris Dodd becomes the first official casualty I’ve seen, dropping out of the race…
UPDATE 10:04 p.m.: The Intrade markets now have McCain the favored GOP nominee with an even bigger margin than yesterday, with 32% to Giuliani’s 26%. Romney is clearly the big loser of the night, as Rudy had virtually pulled out of Iowa. Rudy must make a better showing than sixth in New Hampshire, though…
UPDATE 10:18 p.m.: Casualty #2: Joe Biden drops out…
McCain taking third is absolutely huge for him. All of a sudden he’s the favorite in the GOP race… somehow.
Go Obama!
Well, I don’t know if McCain took third…last I saw Thompson was marginally ahead with 86% of the vote in. For all intents and purposes, though, it looks like he and Thompson will be in a virtual tie for third…
Yeah, I see he’s dancing back and forth. Do you think Thompson still drops out?
Nah, he denied the story strongly after the Politico reported it. I think he stays in through New Hampshire (after all, it’s only Tuesday!)…
That seems right to me. I’m interested to see when Edwards drops out. I imagine almost all of his 30% would have been Obama’s tonight (what Edwards voters pick Hillary second, really?). This could be a rout without Edwards in the race.
A good night for me. My favorite won in Iowa and the Kansas win over VTech puts me in first place in my office pool. 2008 is a great year.
Well, I always root for the Big 12, so I’m happy with the Jayhawks, too…
Watch for Hillary to start hitting Obama even harder. Maybe she’ll dig up something from his high school years showing that he dealt drugs amongst his friends.
I’m not knocking Obama, but I think what cHill’s co-chairman did by mentioning the possibility was no slip of the tongue, it was a deliberate trial balloon. Since no GOP will even care about what he did in the folly of his youth, she may well decide to release the “evidence” by leaking it to her drones at CNN and let them run with it.
I was off on my GOP forecast with Romney & Huck trading places.
However, the more I learn about Huck, the more I’m hoping he doesn’t go the distance. Nothing to do with his electability against a DNC opponent, but that I think he’s the RINO version of Jimmy Carter. So all I can do is hope and pray that Huck fades but quick. My two preferred choices remain Fred & Mitt.
Hi, Mark…been a little busy this evening. Just thought I’d drop by. Its a mighty satisfying evening.
BSR
Wow! Except for my saying McCain would take third instead of Thompson (which is barely wrong), I pretty much swept with my predictions! Honest, I did! I posted them on my blog this morning!
I know it’s sort of high fashion to pretend Ron Paul doesn’t exist (you didn’t include him in your tag, in fact, I don’t see a tag for him at all on the left), but the fact that he got 10% should worry Republicans a little bit as it is most likely none of those 10% will actually vote Republican. Guiliani looks like the bigger loser to me than Romney. Of course, all of this is GREAT NEWS for McCain! What a hero!
*Giu*
Great showing for Obama, but Hillary will still be the nominee — even if Obama follows this win up with a win in New Hampshire.
Obama’s problem is going to be the South, where Hillary will probably run the tables with white voters and pull enough black voters to push the entire region out of his grasp — so long as Edwards drops out before February 5, which he is almost certain to do. He’ll make a good run, better than Edwards would have, but at the end of the day, Hillary will still be the nominee.
Obama should take trains and buses from now on. Avoid planes.
Huckabee? Remember President Pat Robertson?
No clear thinking conservative would vote for Huckabee because he ain’t one (religion-based social conservatism aside).
You know, it doesn’t surprise me that my predictions are wrong, or even that Mark’s or anyone else’s here miss. What I find interesting and humorous is that the people that live this stuff, in the trenches, as they say, miss so badly. Romney was predicted to win, perhaps narrowly, over Huckster but got CRUSHED! How the heck do they miss so badly?
Sean, what evidence do you have that Hillary will “run the table” with white voters in the South? Are white voters there substantially more likely to support her than white voters in Iowa?
Ryan: Here’s why
#1: Hillary Clinton was first lady of a southern state for 12 years.
#2: Hillary Clinton’s platform is based more on bread and butter economic issues than Obama’s, who is pitching his campaign more towards upscale Gary Hart/ “New Ideas” Democrats. People who voted for Edwards for economic issues will gravitate to Hillary over Obama.
#3: The racial issue. The South today isn’t what it was 40 years ago, but there is still some lingering hostility to blacks among some white voters — and don’t tell me they are all Republicans now. It won’t account for all or even most of Hillary’s support among white voters, but it will make a difference on the margins.
I should concede that, in southern states where the Democratic base includes significant carpetbaggers (Virginia, North Carolina) Obama might have a shot. But that isn’t going to be enough.
I’m not worried that 11,598 neo-Nazis, Klansmen, and 9/11 Troofers won’t be voting Republican in the general election. The Democrats can have them back.
Sean P, I dunno. I just read a Black Enterprise article explaining why Obama WILL be president, they predict Obama will definitely take the following States:IA, MN, WI, IL (I wonder if Billary will take either of her home States, if not her childhood State?), MI, IN, OH, WV, VT, NH, CT, MD, SC (again, Edwards won’t carry his State), TN, GA, FL, TX, KS, CO, ID, NV, CA & OR.
Interestingly, they don’t think Obama will have a problem with reluctant and/or racist whites; America is beyond the issue of race. Rather it will be the DNC, led by the Clinton Machine that will plunge the knife in his back.
The article closes with this: “Americans want change. Obama has the message, the team, and the money. Now it’s up to the people who have the vote to make history and set the nation on a new course”.
Naturally, as a conservative, I don’t agree with his message, but we can tolerate one term under Obama, than one minute with cHillary near the oval office.
Which brings me to another point; if Obama wins the nomination, she is finished! No more WH dreams for her. She can choose to finish out her career as Senator from NY or quit politics altogether. But there is no way on God’s green earth that Obama will even consider her for the VP or any cabinet post, lest we inexplicably find Obama commiting suicide with a shot to the back of his head.
BSR, big night for your man. Congrats!…