Decision ‘08

Iowa Is Upon Us

Tomorrow is the day the 2008 presidential campaign officially kicks off, in the always-odd spectacle of a caucus, not a primary. Truth be told, though I earlier ventured a prediction of Romney and Hillary, this one is a toss-up on both sides. The Democratic race in particular could go to Hillary, Edwards, or Obama, and no one would be surprised. I’m a bit more confident in the Romney prediction - he’s strong on the ground, and he’s regained a bit of momentum in this observer’s eyes.

Resorting to polls at this point is a bit ridiculous, with the actual voting less than a day away, but the RealClearPolitics polling average page has Obama and Huckabee leading with the most razor-thin of possible margins. The people with the most to lose tomorrow just so happen to be the people that I picked to win. Romney has been banking on Iowa from the beginning, and Huckabee can crow almost as much about a strong second as he could about a win. Hillary stands to be the biggest casualty of the day - although a second (or even a third) wouldn’t end her hopes, anything short of a victory will only serve to weaken the once-strong ‘inevitability’ surrounding her ascension to the throne (a view I shared myself - but though I no longer see her as the inevitable nominee, I still see her as the most likely).

So be it - of all possible worlds, we live in this one - so it’s onward and upward from here on out…

UPDATE 10:35 p.m.: For what it’s worth, Bob Novak says it will be Romney and Obama, with Clinton finishing third…

8 Responses to “Iowa Is Upon Us”

1 Ryan Says:
January 2nd, 2008 at 10:23 pm
The second-choice votes are going to be decisive for the Democrats, I think. That seems to benefit Edwards the most. I think an Edwards win might actually seal the deal for Hillary, because it all but guarantees she won’t be swept by Obama in the first three states.
2 Mark Says:
January 2nd, 2008 at 10:45 pm
Interesting…you may be right - Hillary loses all three, but because Edwards takes one, the press doesn’t anoint Obama - something like that, you mean?
3 Fargus Says:
January 2nd, 2008 at 11:18 pm
See, nobody’s been polling the right way, though. It may be the case that more people have Edwards as their second choice as their first, but how many of those have Clinton or Obama as their first choice and so won’t get a chance to make their second choices count?

Proper polling would tell us who is the top second choice among supporters of Biden, Richardson, Dodd and Kucinich. Especially with Kucinich’s entreaty that his supporters pick Obama second, that could be a whole different story. If one goes exclusively by the Register poll (not necessarily a sound choice, but just as a for instance), Edwards would have to pick up at least 8 out of 19 remaining percent of caucus-goers over Obama to take the thing. That means that Edwards can only afford for a bare quarter of the second votes expressed to be thrown Obama’s way, and all of that assumes that Hillary doesn’t pick up any second votes.

If the first vote margins are smaller than the Register says, then the game changes, but not all that much. The fact remains that if Edwards is in third in the first vote, he’s got more ground to make up than I think he’ll have in second votes. I think Obama’s gonna take it.
4 Mark Says:
January 2nd, 2008 at 11:26 pm
I won’t be shocked if he does…this whole caucus thing does throw a kink into the prediction game…
5 Ryan Says:
January 3rd, 2008 at 12:40 am
That’s exactly what I mean, Mark. If Edwards takes this one, and Obama pulls it out in New Hampshire and then wins South Carolina (which looks almost like a given at this point), there’s no real insurgency narrative. Clinton has enormous leads in the Super Tuesday states right now, so there’s going to have to be some kind of real media blitz to knock her out. I think that’s unlikely if the Democrats don’t come up with a clear anti-Hillary candidate. It’s basically the Giuliani strategy - only I think it can actually work for Hillary since she’s unlikely to completely drop off the map in the early states. If, for instance, Rudy gets beat by Ron Paul in New Hampshire, though, he starts to look like a serious has-been. Hillary is quite simply not going to finish worse than third in anything.
6 Blogs of War: Iowa: Pre-Caucus Roundup Says:
January 3rd, 2008 at 5:27 am
[…] Decision ‘08 Hillary stands to be the biggest casualty of the day - although a second (or even a third) wouldn’t end her hopes, anything short of a victory will only serve to weaken the once-strong ‘inevitability’ surrounding her ascension to the throne (a view I shared myself - but though I no longer see her as the inevitable nominee, I still see her as the most likely). […]
7 Sean P Says:
January 3rd, 2008 at 12:09 pm
Ryan: I think you are probably right that an Edwards win in Iowa equals a Clinton nomination at the end, albiet for different reasons.

The thing is, Obama is the challenger best positioned to go the distance against Hillary. First of all, he has the money, and while a breakout win by Edwards in Iowa will help fundraising tremendously, the compacted calendar means raising money after the primaries start takes you off the campaign trail (something Obama doesn’t have to worry about). Also, even if Edwards wins Iowa, I really don’t see where Edwards wins the states he needs to secure the nomination. Hillary will dominate on the coasts (except maybe Pennsylvania), and her strength with the black vote (at least as against Edwards) dooms him in most of the South, which should be his stronghold.

Finally, Obama is a much better match for New Hampshire, both ideologically and tempermentally, than Edwards and, as such, would be much better positioned to capitalize on an Iowa win. An Edwards win could be spun by Hillary as a win by a candidate who had been campaigning in the state for the last six years and therefore insignificant. His 2004 finish in Iowa yielded little return in NH the last time out, so there is much reason to expect history to repeat itself. And, I’m just guessing here, but I think an Obama win would energize NH independants to vote in the Democratic Primary, whereas an Edwards win would not.
8 Andy Says:
January 3rd, 2008 at 5:47 pm
What surprised me is that Richardson s telling his supporter to vote for Obama as their 2nd choice. Reckon he gave up on being VP for cHillary and now kissing up to Obama? H/T Captainsquarters. As he pointed out, it could lead to a weird Bush-Cheny dynamic with Bill as the puppetmaster for a naive POTUS