Decision ‘08

Iowa Predictions

What the hey…with polls showing both parties completely up for grabs in Iowa, I’ll put my two cents in with predictions.

Republicans: Mitt Romney

Democrats: Hillary Clinton

Second will go to Huckabee and Edwards, respectively. Big losers on the day will be Obama, with a tough-to-swallow third, and Fred Thompson, who will begin the slink off the stage very quickly. Biggest spin will come from Giuliani, who will have to ride through a tough early stretch with enough of his former luster intact to win Florida and stay alive…

8 Responses to “Iowa Predictions”

1 Andy Says:
December 31st, 2007 at 2:45 am
My $0.02
GOP: 1) Romney, 2) McCain, 3) Thompson - don’t count him out, particularly in post-Iowa races where I think most of the 2nd tier supporters will shift to Thompson. I think Huckabee is a dead man walking.

DNC: 1) Obama, 2) Edwards, 3) Clinton — due to their 15% rule, I think Obama/Edwards are the 2nd/3rd choice of all 2nd tier candidate supporters. Can anyone fathom Hillary gleaning any 2nd round votes from the losers?
2 Hillary Clinton » Iowa Predictions Says:
December 31st, 2007 at 2:52 am
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3 Sean P Says:
December 31st, 2007 at 3:10 pm
I’m going with Huckabee, Romney, McCain on the Republican side (don’t know if Rudy or Thompson will finish 4th).

On the Dem side, I honestly haven’t been following too closely (since the ultimate result is pretty much a foregone conclusion) but I think Iowa Dems are cognisant of the fact that there vote will determine whether the Dem contest is a race or a coronation and will pick one of Hillary’s opponents. I just don’t know which.
4 Clint Says:
December 31st, 2007 at 8:15 pm
Andy- I’d love to believe that Huckabee is already out of it, but I think he’s got too much support in Iowa to vanish just yet.

My guesses:
GOP: Romney and Huckabee a close 1 & 2; then Thompson and McCain a close 3 & 4
Dem: Obama, Clinton, Edwards, but with the total spread from first to third less than 10 percentage points.

If Thompson doesn’t take 3rd, he’s done.
If Huckabee manages 1st, Romney’s in trouble and McCain surges to win NH.
If Edwards does come in 3rd, it’s over for him.
5 Andy Says:
December 31st, 2007 at 10:35 pm
Clint, I should be a little clearer. I think it is the fiscal/social conservatives that will determine the nominee.

Even if Huck takes 1st in Iowa, it won’t get him far past Florida where Rudy is waiting to take off. Mitt needs to rack up the early states before Florida. However, beyond Florida, I think Rudy’s greatest threat would actually be slugging it out with Thompson & Mitt while McCain lies in wait to pick up the conservative pieces. Huck simply doesn’t have what it takes to go the distance, regardless of Iowa/New Hampshire results.
6 Craig Says:
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:59 am
GOP: 1. Mike Huckabee 2. Mitt Romney 3. John McCain 4. Fred Thompson 5. Ron Paul 6. Rudy Giuliani
DEM: 1. Hillary Clinton 2. Barack Obama 3. John Edwards 4. Joe Biden 5. Bill Richardson 6. Christopher Dodd

I think that Huck and Mitt will nearly tie in Iowa but Mike Huckabee will come out on top. Ron Paul will pull out a huge surprise by leading his army over Rudy’s defunct Iowa machine. Hillary Clinton will just squeak by with the top Democratic candidates within 5% of each other. The bottom three contenders from the Democrats will pull out within days leaving Hillary, Barack and John to duke it out.
7 Ali A. Akbar Says:
January 4th, 2008 at 2:19 am
Ouch. Tough luck man. Oh well… better next time haha.
Your predictions were slaughtered. Happens. Can’t wait for NH!
8 Predictions For Iowa | Anne Arundel Maryland Politics - aapolitics.us Says:
June 14th, 2008 at 7:25 pm
[…] early stretch with enough of his former luster intact to win Florida and stay alive…" — Decision ‘08 "The order … Edwards, Obama, Clinton, Richardson, Biden, Dodd, Kucinich. And it will be […]