The End Of Rudy?
You can’t swing a cat without hitting a Rudy free-fall story, but Jim Geraghty says “Not so fast”:
…Rudy will remain in okay shape until it’s a two man race, and that for him to win the nomination, he needs the last remaining Not Rudy candidate to be too bruised to triumph.
Iowa, for now, appears likely to be won by Mike Huckabee. Maybe Romney comes back, but for now, assume the polls don’t shift much between now and January 3.
New Hampshire, for now, could be won by Romney, or perhaps McCain. Let’s say McCain takes it.
Michigan, for now, could be Romney, could be Giuliani. Let’s say Romney wins it.
South Carolina… could be Huckabee, could be Romney, could be the site of Thompson’s last stand. Let’s say Thompson pounds his Southern themes and sneaks out with one or two percent.
Under that scenario, nobody’s the frontrunner by the time they get to Florida, which Rudy is still leading right now. Everybody could (and arguably should) have a win under their belts. In addition to each one of his rivals controling a faction of the pie, they’ll probably have higher disapproval numbers, as they will have been the target of attacks for several weeks as Giuliani faded into the background.
…[I]t’s possible that by the time we get to Florida, most of the other Big Five have won only one or two states and has higher negatives from several tough primary battles. Rudy can swoop in, win delegate-rich Florida, and then try to execute his big state Super Duper Tuesday strategy, and pound home, electability, electability, electability…
Maybe…a win in Michigan would sure help, though…but Giuliani’s lead there is now as paper-thin as his Florida lead has suddenly become…he’s definitely in some trouble…not down for the count, but hurting badly…
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December 25th, 2007 at 11:11 am
Umm…according to the polls, Geraghty is way wrong about Michigan…he says it could be Romney/could be Rudy?? Its one heck of a lot more likely it could be Huckabee than Giuliani. Here’s the way I see it all going down…honestly… Huckabee is going to win Iowa. McCain is probably going to win NH (those in the know are predicting a Huckabee win in Iowa will bleed 10 points away from Romney in NH, half of which will probable go to McCain). My prediction is that Romney is going to know his chances at the nomination are over at this point, but there is no way he’s going to quit. He is going to start looking for a way onto the ticket. He has the cash to continue and he is going to form an alliance with someone if they’ll agree to put him on the ticket. The only question is, who is it going to be?