Decision ‘08

As Iraq Fades, Huckabee and Obama Rise

Curious as to why the opening vote in Iowa on January 3rd may go to Obama and Huckabee rather than Hillary and Romney, as presumed for so long? Peter Beinart says it’s because Iraq has settled down:

The reason Iraq is fading is simple: Not as many people are dying there. Fewer deaths mean fewer front-page stories, and fewer front-page stories mean less discussion on the cable shows, which were pretty sick of the topic already. Turn on the television these days, and you’re more likely to think America is at war with illegal immigrants than with insurgents in the heart of the Middle East.

And that’s showing up in the polls. Between June and November, according to NBC and the Wall Street Journal, the percentage of Americans citing Iraq as their top priority fell eight points. A Post survey recently reported a six-point decline since September. When a CNN/WMUR news poll asked the same question of likely New Hampshire voters last month, it found that the percentage of Republicans citing Iraq had dropped 14 points since June. Among Democrats, the drop was 16 points.

The result is that both the Democratic and Republican campaigns are looking more like the campaigns of the 1990s. Start with the GOP. The Republican who has benefited most from Iraq’s slide is Mike Huckabee, who this summer was in low single digits in Iowa and is now running neck and neck with Mitt Romney for first place. A few months ago, commentators were saying that conservatives no longer cared as much about abortion, gay marriage and the like; they were more focused on the “war on terror.” Rudy Giuliani has bet his whole campaign on that proposition. Romney’s competence theme is a not-so-subtle critique of the way President Bush has handled the war. Huckabee, by contrast, has virtually no national security profile. In an Iraq-dominated campaign, it’s hard to imagine him as a serious contender. But as the war has receded, it has been supplanted by domestic issues and by questions of personality and character. And in that ’90s-like environment, Huckabee — the truest social conservative in the race, and the guy you’d most like to drink a root beer with — is smiling his way into the top tier.

On the Democratic side, the impact is even more striking. Iraq, bizarrely enough, was a great issue for Hillary Clinton. True, she had voted for a war that everyone in her party now hates. But when asked which candidate they most trusted on the war, Democrats consistently chose her, often by huge margins. Iraq played to Clinton’s biggest asset: her reputation for experience and strength. Iraq reminded Democrats of how dangerous the world is, and the more dangerous it seemed, the more they gravitated to the safe choice.

But as Iraq has faded, the mood has changed. Since summer, according to The Post, the percentage of Democrats prioritizing “strength and experience” has gone down and the percentage wanting a “new direction and new ideas” has gone up. That’s good news for Barack Obama, who is low on experience but high on charisma. In recent weeks, the Democratic primary campaign has frequently revolved around small, even trivial, issues — driver’s licenses for illegal immigrants, rumors of planted questions at town-hall meetings and dirty tricks — that supposedly testify to the character of the candidates. And in this changed environment, Obama and John Edwards have managed to sow doubts about whether Clinton is too evasive and too scripted.

The most recent Iowa poll, by the Quad City Times, shows both Obama and Huckabee with 9-point leads…

8 Responses to “As Iraq Fades, Huckabee and Obama Rise”

1 Repulicans Presidential Election 2008 » As Iraq Fades, Huckabee and Obama Rise Says:
December 15th, 2007 at 8:18 pm
[…] Mark put an intriguing blog post on As Iraq Fades, Huckabee and Obama RiseHere’s a quick excerpt […]
2 BSR Says:
December 16th, 2007 at 12:26 pm
Huckabee now leads in Iowa, South Carolina, Florida, much of the South and Texas. Sounds like a pretty good path to the GOP nomination is opening up for him.
3 too many steves Says:
December 16th, 2007 at 2:14 pm
Fascinating. I have to say my interest in this campaign, made moribund by the early start and the seeming inevitability of the Giuliani/Clinton ticket, is coming back to life. Huckabee/Obama could be very interesting.
4 Ryan Says:
December 16th, 2007 at 11:10 pm
Obama/Huckabee would be delightful. In fact, anyone/Huckabee would be great. Huck is the very epitome of the current GOP - overreaching, moralistic, anti-science, hatemongering, and God-obsessed. Watching him go down in flames as the country repudiates those things would be so incredibly satisfying.
5 peter Says:
December 17th, 2007 at 7:32 pm
An article in yesterday’s NY Times reported that none of the Republican candidates currently has as high as a 50% approval rating among Republican voters. The article speculated that the only thing which could galvanize Republican voters would be to have Hillary as the Democratic standard bearer. It will be interesting to see if the mantle of electability switches from Clinton to Obama.

Elsewhere in yesterday’s paper, Frank Rich makes an interesting point about those who say that Obama’s black skin will prevent him from winning. Rich points out that New Hampshire and Iowa are both 95% white — if he can win there, it’s hard to see how this would be a killer obstacle for him elsewhere.
6 Foresighted Says:
December 19th, 2007 at 10:59 am
My prediction: Obama is going to get the nomination. Good news for Dems. Huckabee doesn’t stand a chance at getting the republican nomination though. His budget is too small and he still alienates people with some reactionary ideas. I’ve got nothing against a man with morals running, and Huckabee seems to have great character and charisma, but I also don’t think he’s really got any solid plans on serious issues. Just charisma, clever jokes, and a guitar. You want my opinion? Romney is going to win the Republican vote…unless Huckabee’s surge steals too much of his momentum and dumps it into Giuliani’s lap. If that happens, it will be a tight race but Obama will win it.
Now if Romney plays…I think he will take the vote and beat Obama.
Hail the prognosticator! Tomorrow I tell you who wins the 2008 world series.
7 too many steves Says:
December 19th, 2007 at 3:13 pm
Dean was killing it on the Democrat side four years ago and with one untimely “YEAAAAAAH” found himself out on his ear, which only proves that his support was a mile wide and an inch deep.

I’m not smart enough, nor informed enough, to say with certainty (or credibility) what will happen, but I think Hillary and Giuliani are the practical, pragmatic choices for their respective parties - maybe McCain for the GOP but he’s long in the tooth. I just don’t see Huckabee having any staying power; his ideas are flaky (the Fair Tax!), he’s an extreme social conservative, he’s not a nice guy (low blow attacks on Romney), and, well, he’s a kook. Obama has a chance because of his charisma but with an aging voting population I don’t see broad support for such a young guy, especially one with such a thin resume.

Romney hasn’t got a hope, he’s a Mormon. The only thing worse on the religious test scale is Atheist. A Muslim would be nominated before people would vote in big numbers for a Mormon.
8 Andy Says:
December 24th, 2007 at 2:40 am
A Muslim would be nominated before people would vote in big numbers for a Mormon.

I doubt that. We as a people have already voted Mormons for every office save POTUS. Meanwhile, the Muslim from Minnesota ain’t doing so hot and will be lucky to save his seat next time around.