More On Huckabee
Yesterday, I shared my opinion that the surging Mike Huckabee might have a chance at the Republican nomination, due to his obvious appeal to the base, but would lose big in the general election because his appeal is limited to the base. Today, a couple of stories have added to my apprehensions. One is a new poll that shows Huckabee losing handily to Obama, Hillilary, and even the hapless John Edwards:
In head-to-head matchups — the first to include Huckabee — the former Arkansas governor loses to Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York by 10 percentage points (54 percent to 44 percent), to Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois by 15 points (55 percent to 40 percent) and to former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina by 25 points (60 percent to 35 percent).
The poll comes on the heels of a CNN/Opinion Research poll released Monday that showed Huckabee doubled his support nationally among likely Republican voters in the last month and is in a statistical dead heat with former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani.
No doubt this has fueled some wishful thinking among Democrats, who, Drudge reports, are signalling that Huckabee as an opponent would be fine and dandy:
Democrat party officials are avoiding any and all criticism of Republican presidential contender Mike Huckabee, insiders reveal.
The Democratic National Committee has told staffers to hold all fire, until he secures the party’s nomination.
The directive has come down from the highest levels within the party, according to a top source.
Within the DNC, Huckabee is known as the “glass jaw — and they’re just waiting to break it.”
In the last three weeks since Huckabee’s surge kicked in, the DNC hasn’t released a single press release criticizing his rising candidacy.
The last DNC press release critical of Huckabee appeared back on March 2nd.
[DNC Press Release Attack Summary:
Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA) – 37% (99 press releases)
Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-NY) – 28% (74)
Senator John McCain (R-AZ) – 24% (64)
Senator Fred Thompson (R-TN) – 8% (20)
Governor Mike Huckabee – 2% (4)]In fact, as the story broke over the weekend that Huckabee said he wanted to isolate AIDS patients back in 1992, the DNC ignored the opportunity to slam the candidate from the left.
“He’ll easily be their McGovern, an easy kill,” mocked one senior Democrat operative Tuesday morning from Washington.
Huckabee has earned his rise in the polls with his performance in the debates and on the campaign trail, but I think his honeymoon with some of his newly discovered admirers will be short-lived…electability is not the only, or even the most important reason to support a candidate, but it is A reason…
What’s interesting is the way John Edwards beats every Republican by a wider margin than either Hillary or Obama. How can that be? He is the most progressive of the three and basically lives in the Mitt Romney category of phony sliminess. The only guess I have is that he’s a Southern white guy instead of a black guy or a woman, and at some point we decided that white guys from the South should dominate our national politics.
You’re entitled to your opinion, but it boggles my mind that you can think ANYBODY in the race on either side even comes close to Mitt Romney when the metric is phony sliminess.
You guys just hate Mitt because he’s beautiful (have you seen those teeth?)!
Fargus, that may be fair, but I wouldn’t buy a car from either one of them.
Look, let me just chime in with a rare note of agreement with both Fargus AND Ryan: Romney is a phoney. I believe Edwards is, too, but I echo Ryan’s sentiment above…
Mark,
You and I started our blogs around the same time, if you’ll remember, nearly three years ago. I told you then that Mike Huckabee was going to be the eventual nominee and I am telling you now that is still the case. I understand that you are not necessarily saying he won’t, but I hope you will listen to me when I tell you that your concerns about his electability are way off base (and consider my track record on being right). Just as the polls have been wrong about Hucakbee all along, these “electability” polls are wrong now. Mike Huckabee, as the nominee, will IN FACT draw more independent and Democratic support than Ronald Reagan ever did. It will be a LANDSLIDE victory for Huckabee.
As I said nearly 1,000 days ago…..Mark My Words.
Your friend,
BSR
To those who don’t know, Blue State Republican has been everything a candidate could hope for in a blogger – he supported Huckabee when no one gave him a shot, and he’s been faithful through thick and then. I have a lot of respect for the work you’ve done, and I mean no disrespect to your candidate. I’m just calling it as I see it, but I have been wrong on one or two occasions before…
No offense taken, Mark…I’ve been admiring your work as well. Actually, I was quite jealous of how your traffic outpaced mine so dramatically (back when you had a counter on your site)…but maybe I’ll catch up to you soon
BSR