Decision ‘08

Don’t Feel Much Like Blogging Today…

…as I just found out that someone in California has hit my bank account for many hundreds of dollars in at least ten transactions through a credit card linked to the account (hope you get arrested tonight, now that it’s been reported stolen, jackass!). I know for a fact my credit card was used at a major retailer at the time of a giant data breach, so I’m relatively certain that’s how the number got out. Nevertheless, the bank says they’ll make good on the money, and life goes on.

Bloomberg is reporting new poll numbers that show (surprise!) Hillary and Giuliani in the lead:

Two New Yorkers dominate the 2008 presidential race: Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani.

A new Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll shows that Senator Clinton has opened up a 31-point gap over her chief Democratic rival, Barack Obama, leading 48 percent to 17 percent. She also runs ahead of all Republicans in general-election matchups, with only Giuliani coming close, trailing by 6 percentage points.

The poll shows that a number of Clinton’s perceived weaknesses, from her failed 1994 health-care plan to her decision to stay with her husband after he had an affair with a White House intern, aren’t liabilities. Driving her support are women voters, a central focus of the Clinton campaign, which is pushing such programs as expanded paid family leave and affordable health insurance.

“Clinton is really solidifying her Democratic support,” said Susan Pinkus, the Los Angeles Times polling director. “She is getting the backing of many of the major groups among the Democratic primary voters.”

Giuliani, 63, is backed by 32 percent of likely Republican voters, more than double the support of his closest rival, Fred Thompson, who has 15 percent. Following closely behind are Senator John McCain of Arizona, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee. Giuliani’s lead is his biggest of the year in this poll.

The former New York mayor leads among his party’s moderates, conservatives, most income groups and both men and women. Among self-described Christian conservative voters, who make up almost 30 percent of Republicans, he runs about even with Thompson and well ahead of the other contenders.

Those who continue to believe Giuliani can never be the Republican nominee may be starting to reconsider…meanwhile, Charlie Cook says foreign policy weakness (surprise!) may yet do in the Dems:

Charlie Cook is one of the nation’s leading election analysts and progonosticators. In his latest column (sent by E-mail, with no link currently available), he warns that while everything seems to be going Democrats’ way, their streak of good luck is bound to end. Further, he says that Democratic sloppiness about foreign policy may seriously weaken the chance of a Democrat winning the White House in 2008:

Cook criticizes Congressional Democrats for scheduling a vote on the Armenian genocide resolution, then pulling it from consideration. He says that it highlights the weakness of Democrats on foreign policy issues. He then says:

It is important to remember that the Democrats’ only presidential victories since 1976 were in 1992 and 1996; the first two elections after the Iron Curtain fell and the Cold War was over. At that point, the foreign policy aspect of the presidency was pretty much discounted, and Democrats nominated Bill Clinton, widely considered to be a moderate.

While many voters might disagree with the Bush administration on foreign policy issues, it doesn’t mean Democrats get a free pass. They have to be very careful…

But the important takeaway is that while Republicans might not be a credible threat in terms of recapturing majorities in the House or Senate, congressional Democrats should still be more concerned about the consequences of their actions on their party’s chances of winning the White House next year.

Voters seem angry enough at Republicans today to take the presidency away from them, but putting a Democrat into the post can’t be seen as a risk.

Cook is right, but the question of the Armenian genocide is the minor one; the real question is whether Democrats will be seen as credible on national security. If the situation in Iraq continues to improve, some swing voters will reconsider how much might have been lost by the precipitous withdrawal pushed by Democrats. They will wonder why Democrats have been so conciliatory toward Iran, and why they are fighting against reasonable measures to continue surveillance of foreign terrorists.

Barack Obama’s main campaign theme these days seems to be “I trust Mahmoud Ahmadinejad more than I do George Bush”. That may be music to progressive ears, but it’s going to sound pretty damn reckless to a lot of fencesitters come general election time…but that’s academic, because Hillary has the nomination sewn up.

There, I said it. Why not? I’m mad about this bank thing, so I’ll go out on the line, throwing caution to the wind in a brazen display of reckless punditry. Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee for President of the United States. I predict it, officially, as of October 23, 2007 (but I’m not ready to pick her as the next President - not yet).

Talk about burying the lede! Oh, well (give me back my money, you crooks!)…

18 Responses to “Don’t Feel Much Like Blogging Today…”

1 Gulf Coast Bandit Says:
October 23rd, 2007 at 10:39 pm
Damn, man, that sucks, sorry to hear about that…
I think you’re perfectly right to predict that Hillary will win the nomination, there’s definitely some money to be made on the intrade markets on that proposition…
2 Andy Says:
October 24th, 2007 at 1:24 am
That sucks, at least the reax seems quick enough. Let’s see where cHillary is at after the 3rd or 4th primary.
3 too many steves Says:
October 24th, 2007 at 5:30 am
This campaign - for the nomination - is at risk of peaking before the primaries even begin. My personal decision to observe from a distance is looking pretty good as I haven’t invested (wasted) a lot of time analyzing all the various candidates. That said, the momentum is moving in such a way that there is decreasing evidence explaining how Rudy and Hillary don’t win their respective nominations.

Thank goodness the Sox are in the World Series, that will occupy my attention for th next week.
4 Sean P Says:
October 24th, 2007 at 6:34 pm
toomanysteves:

The weird part of the campaign is the fact that the nominee will be decided before we really have a good feel for the electorate’s mood in 2008. This poses a big risk for both parties, but Democrats especially. Do you go with the known quantity (Hillary) or the unknown (Obama). As a charismatic but untested candidate, Obama has the potential to do much better than Hillary, but also much worse. As a result, Hillary would be the best bet in a Democratic year, Obama would be the best bet in a Republican year. Thing is, there is NO WAY of knowing that by February, and by June, when the electoral landscape will be clearer, the die will already have been cast.
5 Aaron Says:
October 25th, 2007 at 1:07 am
I recall an article from The Economist back in the spring that suggested the Bush administration by its mishandling of Iraq in particular and foreign policy in general has destroyed the traditional Republican advantage of being more competent and skillful when it comes to handling foreign affairs. Even Richard Nixon, who came close to annhilating the GOP, was a foreign affairs-adept.

Fortunately, the mark of incompetence is much less tied to parties and more to certain individuals in America than it is in other countries. David Cameron is still having some trouble overcoming Sir John Major’s legacy of Black Tuesday in Britain.

BTW, well said, Sean.
6 too many steves Says:
October 25th, 2007 at 10:45 am
More enlightened and enlightening comment from he who should be permanently banned. The tourette’s of blog commenting.

Sean & Aaron: agreed and insightful. There is a big risk, just look at the latest in Iraq, the surge is having a positive effect (may or may not last) which makes Hillary’s “it will never work” rhetoric of this past summer seem terribly naive and misinformed. That alone won’t do lasting damage but it sure makes the case that there is lots of risk to the Parties of choosing so early.
7 mikebdot Says:
October 25th, 2007 at 12:35 pm
I think Jake is the guy that sends me all those penis enlargement emails!
8 CrawlinKingSnake Says:
October 25th, 2007 at 1:11 pm
Mikebdot, The penis enlargement emails have better grammer and they make a better point.
9 Gulf Coast Bandit Says:
October 25th, 2007 at 4:50 pm
Are you back again? Dadgum…
10 Mark Says:
October 25th, 2007 at 8:32 pm
Don’t worry, my friends…Jake has figured out one way around the hoops, but who cares? There’s more than one way to skin a cat…and now, in addition to a death threat, he’s connected himself with felony theft. Of course, he’s apparently too big of an idiot to realize that the more he posts, the more information I have to pass on to a certain detective who shall remain nameless to you, but whose name “Jake” (who has posted in the past under more than one name, giving me even MORE identifying data) shall hopefully become very familiar with…
11 Mark Says:
October 25th, 2007 at 8:44 pm
Oh, and Jake, I’ve filed a complaint with your ISP, too (among other steps I know and you don’t)…
12 Mark Says:
October 25th, 2007 at 11:13 pm
Cool, then take your chances…hope a possible felony is worth it to you. From now on, I officially ignore you and my only response will be to send your newest communications to law enforcement…
13 Andy Says:
October 26th, 2007 at 12:24 am
Man, why do I keep missing out on these ‘disappeared’ trolls?
14 too many steves Says:
October 26th, 2007 at 7:14 am
Take it from me, you ain’t missin’ out on anything.
15 Sean P Says:
October 26th, 2007 at 12:22 pm
Troll is to kind a word for Jake, who has clearly crossed over into virtual stalker territory.
16 Andy Says:
October 26th, 2007 at 12:34 pm
Never ceases to amaze me that these psychos think they’re somehow invisible as a result of their IP non-comprehension.

Sort of like my tyke believing I can’t find him even tho a couple of toes are sticking out from under the blanket with the telltale lump.
17 Aaron Says:
October 26th, 2007 at 3:55 pm
It feels kind of like being in the same room as someone who’s on the phone — only hearing one side of the conversation and all.
18 Mark Says:
October 27th, 2007 at 5:05 pm
Yeah, you guys weren’t missing anything - some racist idiot spouting nonsense and calling me names. I’ve put up some pretty stringent measures to ban him that may or may not work - but so far, I can tell he’s tried to get back on several times unsuccessfully. My only fear is that I am blocking legitimate traffic in addition to him. It’s too bad fools come along and muck things up for the rest of us…oh, well, if he does return, ignore him, he’s not worth it…