Decision ‘08

Some Sobering, If Early, Electoral Projections…

…ought to put the fear of God into those Republicans clinging to the now antiquated notion that Hillary can never be elected president. Look for yourself…the maps are of Hillary vs. Giuliani and Clinton vs. Romney, based on current polling.

Several caveats: it’s early, and early polling doesn’t mean a lot; the data is gathered by Chris Bowers, noted Nutroots® man; Republicans are very unpopular right now, but there are signs of life lately (at least, a little more feistiness regarding Iraq seems to be in the air); and Hillary is a person whose personality grows very tiresome quite quickly.

Still, this should be a wake-up call to any Republican still foolish enough to be sleeping (though how any Republican could not realize we face a major uphill battle in 2008 at this point is beyond me). It’s also a wake-up call to Mitt Romney supporters. I’m not convinced that he cannot win the Republican primary, but I’m 99.9% convinced he cannot win the general election…

8 Responses to “Some Sobering, If Early, Electoral Projections…”

1 Gulf Coast Bandit Says:
August 24th, 2007 at 8:23 pm
The idea that Texas would vote for Hillary Clinton is absurd. Period.
2 Dennis Says:
August 25th, 2007 at 9:48 am
I agree, and I think that largely reflects the fact that most people have no idea who Mitt Romney is. However, I think it does point to the problem that Republicans have in general, that if the nominee is a generic Republican, they’re likely to lose. They probably won’t do as poorly as that survey would indicate (I really don’t picture places like Texas, Louisiana, Tennesse, Alabama and Mississippi voting for Hillary Clinton), but I think a Romney candidacy would just abolut guarantee a Democratic win.

However, I suspect a Romney candidacy is about as likely as an Edwards candidacy, so it’s probably not worth spending too much time thinking about that. It’ll be Giuliani, Thomson or McCain, and my money is on Giuliani. I’m curious how recent and how extensive those polls are. I’m surprised to see Ohio going for Giuliani and Florida for Clinton; I would guess the opposite will happen. Similarly, I figure Connecticut is more likely to vote for Clinton and New Jersey for Giuliani, not the other way around. Pennsylvania and Virginia strike me as intriguing tossup states.

The rest of Chris Bowers’ predictions (at worst, it’ll be a landslide, at best it’ll be a realignment that ushers in a new millennium that crushes all opposition forever) strike me as rally-the-troops stuff, not any serious attempt at predicting political fortunes. I’m not sure it really does much good, since if you have a potentially fatal candidate, overconfidence doesn’t seem to be the right hand to play.
3 Gulf Coast Bandit Says:
August 25th, 2007 at 10:38 am
Dennis: I agree, and Virginia is particularly intriguing for me. I’ll be going to school there, so I’ll be there campaigning hard during the election. Never fear, GCB is here! haha.
4 Ryan Bonneville Says:
August 27th, 2007 at 10:39 am
I like the idea that more exposure to Hillary will turn people off while more exposure to Giuliani insisting that everything in Iraq is peaches and cream will be just the thing to make everyone love him. My guess is that Hillary’s numbers are already as low as they can possibly go, while Giuliani’s bizarro fascist tendencies certainly create some space for her numbers to go way up.
5 Darrell Says:
September 4th, 2007 at 3:21 pm
When she’s nominated, when the American people are confronted with the reality that Hillary Clinton could really be President, her polls will dive.

As long as the Republicans don’t do anything too horribly stupid, they’ll beat her.
6 Jokerman Says:
October 25th, 2007 at 3:34 pm
This is what happens when the evil party(GOP) becomes more pathetic then the pathetic party(DNC) I tell all you people in Hillary-Hater land that the only people you have to blame is Bush and all the fools out there that still believe in Bush and his idiotic War.

Truthfully, she can and probably will win. I would of never voted for Bush under any circumstances in 00 and 04 to and I think there were litterally tens of millions of Americans like me and look what happened. Too many Pro-lifers won’t vote for Rudy or even Romney, votes the GOP is going to need to stop her.
7 MD Says:
November 6th, 2007 at 4:31 pm
I disagree that Romney couldn’t beat Hillary. I think Romney is the ONLY candidate with a chance to beat whatever dem gets the nod, given the political environment at present.

He’s the only one conservative enough (or Christian enough) to not lose too many Evangelical votes, he’s the only one well-spoken enough to impress fence-sitters, and he’s the only one that’s appealing to the “good old Reagan days” as a campaign platform. If anything is going to keep the conservatives voting Republican, that’s it. Nothing else is radical enough; in other words, all the other candidates (except Huckabee, who doesn’t have a chance anyway) are too moderate.

If the Republicans can’t win this election by appealing to the conservative base, they can’t win it at all.
8 Matt A. Says:
November 8th, 2007 at 1:00 pm
I disagree. I feel Giuliani has an excellent chance to defeat Clinton. I myself am moving towad a Giuliani/Huckabee ticket for 2008. Huckabee would balance out the ticket and effectively satisfy the Christian right. The House and Senate races are more uncertain next year. Romney may have a chance but my feeling is that of the concensus which is a real authentic conservative would have a tough time winning in 2008! It will be a rare three-peat for the GOP!!!