Decision ‘08

End Of The Road Near For McCain?

LOTS of buzz over this piece by Sarah Baxter from the London Times:

THE former presidential front-runner, John McCain, may drop out of the 2008 race by September if his fundraising dries up and his poll ratings continue to drop, according to Republican insiders.

The speculation, vigorously denied by McCain’s camp, is sweeping Republican circles after a disastrous few weeks in which the principled Arizona senator has clashed with the party’s conservative base on immigration and also alienated independent voters by backing President George W Bush’s troop surge in Iraq.

Randy Pullen, chairman of the Arizona Republican party, said: “He’s a battler, so I’d expect him to carry on, but everyone is waiting to see what his new fundraising totals are. That’s pretty critical. If he doesn’t have the money, he won’t be able to run.”

The second fundraising quarter for candidates closes at the end of June and McCain’s results should be known by mid-July.

What to make of it? Well, the rumor itself is relatively insignificant - it could be planted by supporters of another candidate. The reality behind the rumor, however, is very significant: Bush may be the only politician less popular with “real” (cough, cough) conservatives at the moment. Fundraising numbers can be overrated, to be sure, but in McCain’s case - believe the hype. His numbers are going south, and he’s in big, big trouble.

Who will benefit from his exit, should it come to pass? Well, the So-Cons are already salivating over Fred Thompson, and they’ll take Romney as a consolation prize…so I have to think it’s Rudy who would be the biggest winner. He and McCain are very similar in that they have taken stands on issues that have alienated the base while winning over moderates and independents. I’d hate to see McCain go, because he is truly a man of honor and integrity, but I’ve harbored doubts about his electability pretty much since day one.

He hasn’t fallen off the cliff yet, but he’s pretty near the edge…

4 Responses to “End Of The Road Near For McCain?”

1 Chris J. Breisch Says:
June 26th, 2007 at 7:23 am
I won’t be sad to see him go. Other than Ron Paul, he’s the only currently running Republican candidate that would definitely not receive my vote in 2008 should he win the Republican nomination.

I’m sorry if I sound too much like the liberals in Connecticut, and am treating him like Joe Liebermann, but I just disagree with McCain on far too many issues that are important to me.

For the most part, I think he’s a very good Senator. One of the few on Capitol Hill who still understands that civility and compromise are necessary to get things done. You ended up being mostly correct with your assessment of the “Gang of Fourteen”, Mark, but I don’t like McCain-Feingold, and I don’t like the “immigration reform” bill. The Republicans need someone like him who can work with the Democrats (actually, we need several people like him), but I think he’s worked too closely with the Democrats for too long to be an effective “conservative” leader.

On the other hand, he might be one of the few Republicans who could actually “reach out” to the Democrats in Congress, since he has a history of doing so, still…I just don’t see myself voting for him.
2 Ryan Bonneville Says:
June 26th, 2007 at 8:17 am
Chris, that’s really funny, because McCain and Paul are the only two Republicans I WOULD vote for.
3 Chris J. Breisch Says:
June 26th, 2007 at 9:32 am
Ryan,
I don’t find that surprising at all.

Mark,
Most of Fred’s recent surge seems to have come at the expense of McCain and Newt: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-192.html

I’m not sure if that trend would continue if McCain left the race or not. I’m starting to think that Fred might have a ceiling of about 20% in the Republican polls, but July will almost certainly tell us if that’s true or not. If he really does announce on or around July 4, he should get a bump. If the bump doesn’t disappear by the end of July, then he’s a true contender to Rudy. If it does, then he’ll just be Republicans version of Dean. Internet flash without true substance.
4 Mark Says:
June 26th, 2007 at 7:43 pm
Ryan, Ryan, Ryan…Ron Paul? Please…the man is a kook and a conspiracy theorist! Surely you don’t mean that…