Decision ‘08

Thompson Candidacy Challenging McCain

As if McCain weren’t having enough trouble in the wake of the collapse of the immigration bill, Fred Thompson is stealing away his money men:

John Dowd represented Sen. John McCain in his darkest hour, the “Keating Five” scandal. He supported McCain the first time he ran for president in 2000 and signed up to be a major fundraiser for him in this year’s presidential race. But when former senator Fred D. Thompson began thinking about running, the Washington lawyer changed his mind.

For McCain (Ariz.), who started off as the favorite to win the Republican nomination but now trails former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani in most polls, Dowd’s move signals yet another threat to his struggling campaign. As Thompson (Tenn.) builds his team of major fundraisers such as Dowd, the challenge for McCain will be to collect the millions of dollars necessary to maintain a nationwide campaign and convince Republicans that he is their best bet to retain the White House.

“I am very sorry to see what’s happened to John,” Dowd said in an interview. “I don’t think his campaign is being well run. It’s been over-managed. He blew through $8 1/2 million. It’s a difficult thing to leave a friend and go to another friend. But we lost the John McCain I knew.”

With the second-quarter deadline for reporting money raised only weeks away, Thompson’s decision to become a candidate comes at a particularly bad time for McCain. After the initial fundraising results this year showed him behind former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and Giuliani, McCain reorganized his fundraising staff and promised that the results would become apparent on June 30.

But now Thompson is aggressively pitching himself to conservatives uncomfortable with Giuliani, McCain and Romney, and hoping that he will be seen as a viable — and fresh — alternative to the current Republican field when he announces his candidacy early next month. He has already lined up the backing of a number of prominent Republicans, including George P. Bush, a nephew of President Bush.

Thompson’s candidacy appears to present the most challenges for McCain. One of only three senators to endorse his candidacy when the lawmaker from Arizona sought the presidency in 2000, Thompson has been basking in media attention even as McCain has been the subject of attacks from the party base on the compromise immigration legislation he helped shape. Though the two shared remarkably similar voting records in the Senate, Thompson has assailed the immigration bill, which many Republicans dislike. He has also worked hard to convince social conservatives, who remain suspicious of McCain, that he is strongly against abortion.

John McCain is a good man, a fine senator, and would make an excellent president - but I do believe he is in serious trouble. If personal fortitude were all it took, he could go the distance - but can he keep the money together? I’m starting to have my doubts. Those second quarter fundraising numbers could be crucial…

2 Responses to “Thompson Candidacy Challenging McCain”

1 Sean P Says:
June 9th, 2007 at 6:16 pm
Yes those 2nd quarter totals will be crucial, especially since his 1st quarter was the worst of the big 3 at the time.

Here’s where the news gets grim for McCain: half of the last quarter has been dominated by discussion of the Senate amnesty bill, the one issue in which McCain’s view is contrary to the base AND the general electorate. And the entire party has suffered in its fundraising for the actions taken by Bush in pushing this bill, even though most of the party wasn’t behind it. How much worse will the fundraising of the only candidate for President who strongly backed the amnesty/ guest worker bill be?
2 Chris J. Breisch Says:
June 11th, 2007 at 11:59 am
Howdy. Haven’t commented in a while. Not because I haven’t been listening, but because I haven’t had much to say.

However, I would be a hypocrite if I did not compare Thompson’s candidacy to Kerry’s. I am on record (several times) as saying that John Kerry was the least qualified candidate put forth by either party in my lifetime. I have often commented on his lack of known leadership skills, and how I consider him fundamentally unfit to command.

Actually, I think that’s often a trouble spot for Senators in general, but for Kerry in specific. And it saddens me to see so many current and former Senators in this year’s race. Unless we get the former Mayor of New York, it appears extremely likely that the next President of the United States will be coming out of the Senate.

So, Fred Thompson definitely falls into the Kerry mold, but with far less even Senatorial experience than him. He hasn’t been a leader of anything as far as I know. I’ll have to look into his roles when he was a Senator (I remember seeing him on TV often, so that’s a hopeful sign), but right now, that’s a big ugly black mark against him.

Now, the one thing that Fred Thompson does have going for him, is that he appears to understand the problems facing the Republican party. ‘06 was a disastrous year for the Republicans, primarily because many conservatives felt abandoned by the party. The sitting Senators and Congressman haven’t done much this year to change that feeling, especially John McCain and his support for that abominable “immigration reform” bill.

Right now, it seems that the Republicans are trying to force conservatives to stay away from the voting booth in 2008. And, if the continue to do so, I think we’ll likely have a Democratic landslide in both houses and the White House.

Fred Thompson seems to realize that. His campaign so far seems focused around that, actually, and focused around energizing the base. He may be the only hope of re-energizing the conservative movement at this point. At least in time for the 2008 elections.

Rudy may be able to pull it off as well, but he doesn’t (so far) generate the same kind of excitement among conservatives that Fred does. This may be because of his social stances. I don’t know. John McCain has no hope. If he’s the Republican nominee, I’ll probably miss my first election since I’ve been eligible to vote, because I can’t vote for someone who’s against securing the borders and against freedom of speech.