So Who Won, Anyway?
What do the pros and pundits say about last night’s Republican debate? Chris Cillizza gives it to Rudy:
Of the Big 3, the former Mayor of New York City was the most consistently sound last night. He has improved in each of the three debates and last night seemed genuinely comfortable on stage with his rivals. Following Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s (D-N.Y.) lead from two nights before, Giuliani repeatedly turned the focus to Democrats rather than taking potshots at his rivals. He also likely won points with the base with a strong, no-doubt answer on whether America should have invaded Iraq and with his criticism of the immigration bill as a “typical Washington mess.” Giuliani handled a question about his pro-abortion rights position as best as his campaign could hope for but we still believe he faces a real long term problem with the party’s base on the issue.
Yes, well, no doubt…but on the subject of Rudy and abortion, here’s Mark Halperin, who gives the debate to McCain (I think it was a fine night for McCain, as well), but has this to say about Rudy’s moderation:
Bottom line: Every day his liberal social positions and record don’t knock him out of the race is a day closer to the nomination.
That’s strong stuff, indeed…
In other political news of the day, Rudy and McCain combined to give a knock-out blow to the storied Iowa Straw Poll. Cillizza again:
The news that Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani will not participate in the Ames, Iowa, GOP straw poll this August virtually ensures that an event once viewed as a key step to winning the Republican nomination will be essentially meaningless.
Both McCain and Giuliani announced their decision to step out of the straw poll today. Former Sen. Fred Thompson (R-Tenn.), who is expected to formally join the race in the coming months, has long been expected to skip Ames.
With three out of the four frontrunning candidates likely bypassing the straw poll (only former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney remains committed to it), the ultimate results will carry nearly no significance.
No offense to any Iowa readers, but good riddance…a straw poll is a stupid event in the first place, and it’s even stupider to have such an event hold such a significant place on the political calendar.
USA Today/Gallup confirms the continued front runner status of Giuliani with numbers nearly identical to the ABC News/Washington Post poll of the same time frame (Rudy having the support of 32% of Republican/Lean Republican to McCain’s 19%), though the poll got more press for revealing a virtual tie between Hillary and Obama (that result certainly seems to be an outlier – I await further confirmation).
A final note: it’s the 63rd anniversary of D-Day. The casualties were staggering by modern standards:
In April and May 1944, the Allied air forces lost nearly 12,000 men and over 2,000 aircraft in operations which paved the way for D-Day.
Total Allied casualties on D-Day are estimated at 10,000, including 2500 dead. British casualties on D-Day have been estimated at approximately 2700. The Canadians lost 946 casualties. The US forces lost 6603 men. Note that the casualty figures for smaller units do not always add up to equal these overall figures exactly, however (this simply reflects the problems of obtaining accurate casualty statistics).
Casualties on the British beaches were roughly 1000 on Gold Beach and the same number on Sword Beach. The remainder of the British losses were amongst the airborne troops: some 600 were killed or wounded, and 600 more were missing; 100 glider pilots also became casualties. The losses of 3rd Canadian Division at Juno Beach have been given as 340 killed, 574 wounded and 47 taken prisoner.
The breakdown of US casualties was 1465 dead, 3184 wounded, 1928 missing and 26 captured. Of the total US figure, 2499 casualties were from the US airborne troops (238 of them being deaths). The casualties at Utah Beach were relatively light: 197, including 60 missing. However, the US 1st and 29th Divisions together suffered around 2000 casualties at Omaha Beach.
The total German casualties on D-Day are not known, but are estimated as being between 4000 and 9000 men.
Naval losses for June 1944 included 24 warships and 35 merchantmen or auxiliaries sunk, and a further 120 vessels damaged.
Over 425,000 Allied and German troops were killed, wounded or went missing during the Battle of Normandy. This figure includes over 209,000 Allied casualties, with nearly 37,000 dead amongst the ground forces and a further 16,714 deaths amongst the Allied air forces. Of the Allied casualties, 83,045 were from 21st Army Group (British, Canadian and Polish ground forces), 125,847 from the US ground forces. The losses of the German forces during the Battle of Normandy can only be estimated. Roughly 200,000 German troops were killed or wounded. The Allies also captured 200,000 prisoners of war (not included in the 425,000 total, above). During the fighting around the Falaise Pocket (August 1944) alone, the Germans suffered losses of around 90,000, including prisoners.
Today, twenty-seven war cemeteries hold the remains of over 110,000 dead from both sides: 77,866 German, 9386 American, 17,769 British, 5002 Canadian and 650 Poles.
Between 15,000 and 20,000 French civilians were killed, mainly as a result of Allied bombing. Thousands more fled their homes to escape the fighting.
We’ll never forgot the sacrifices made by the brave men of the Allies who stormed the storied beaches of Omaha, Gold, Juno, Utah and Sword…God bless you, for it was your sacrifice that preserved the liberty of the Western world…
A minor nitpick, the Iowa straw poll will only be meaningless if Mitt Romney — the only top tier candidate who’s still in — wins handily. If someone else wins, that person will be (at least for a week or so) the giant-killer to defeated a top tier candidate. This will create an opening — a small one, but for the rest of the candidates it might well be all they ever get — to pull an upset by either beating Romney outright or at least beat the expectations. Brownback and Tommy Thompson have both spent an enormous amount of time in the state, Brownback is well respected by diehard pro-lifers that are as strong in Iowa as just about anywhere and Thompson is beloved in nearby Wisconsin. Not an enviable position for Romney to be in.
Has Decision ’08 finally become the overtly pro-Giuliani site that it has felt like and been in all reality for some time now? I realize that this is your site and you have an absolute right to fill it with whatever you want. But, at least to this long-time regular reader, the Rudy cheerleading has reached a nauseating level, especially considering he is not currently being supported by 75% of Republicans: not to mention the selective poll posting and spinning of Guiliani’s (and McCain’s) plain cowardice in Iowa as anything other than that.
Though I’ll never understand it, I respect your decision to support Guiliani; I’m just disappointed by your lopsided portrayal of the candidates under the pretence of objectivity and impartiality.
…just my two cents; Regards. JB
JB, Rudy Giuliani has led EVERY SINGLE NATIONAL POLL since he announced his candidacy. It’s not cheerleading, it’s the truth: he is indisputably the front runner.
I’ve never hid my admiration for the man, but I’ve also said I’ll gladly support McCain as the nominee, and I’m open to most of the other candidates. Romney has some work to do to get my support, and I’ll never support Tancredo or Paul, but the jury is still out on Thompson.
This is not a newsmagazine or a network news program that hides under a false guise of objectivity; on the contrary, Decision ’08 has always been my personal blog. It is EXTREMELY subjective. I love all of my readers, and I hope they enjoy reading my thoughts even if they don’t always agree with them. But I’m doing this for love; I make next to nothing on my small ads. It’s pure enjoyment that spurs my blogging, and nothing else. If I can’t blog about the things I care about, in my own voice, then I’ll quit at the drop of a hat.
I don’t endorse any candidate, but I make my likes and dislikes pretty plain. I welcome your dissent and merely ask that you give me the courtesy of allowing me to voice my opionion without apology…
As a conservative who is watching the early presidential candidate jockeying from a distance, I don’t get the impression the Decision ’08 is cheerleading for Rudy. I find the coverage here to be fair, balanced, and accurate. To be sure, it is abundantly clear who you like in the race Mark, but I appreciate knowing that up front rather than having to guess at your preference or bias. As you say, this isn’t some journalistic enterprise, it is an opinion site. Keep up the good work.
“Over 425,000 Allied and German troops were killed, wounded or went missing during the Battle of Normandy.”
That is a truly stunning statistic.
I would be interested in a poll that shows both the first choice and second choice of voters. I suspect Mayor Giuliani has the support of most of the Republican voters who don’t consider abortion to be an important issue. However, I also believe most Republicans are pro-life and would not vote for Mayor Giuliani in a primary even if their favorite candidate dropped out.
I have seen analysis that shows Mayor Giuliani’s support among likely voters going down after each debate as voters hear his position on abortion.
32-35% may be the ceiling of Mayor Giuliani’s support among Republicans. I also suspect Senator McCain and Governor Romney have ceilings of less than 35% which may be enough to win a primary, but won’t be enough to win the eventual nomination.
Fred Thompson may not jump to the top when he officially declares, but he should have a higher ceiling because he has less negative baggage to overcome.
Governor Romney has raised a lot of money and has a lot of his own money to spend.
It’s way to early, and not very politically astute at this point, to translate national polls into future election results. Mayor Giuliani may be the eventual Republican nominee, but it won’t be based on national polls. He will need more than 32% in more than a few primaries.
Believe me, I don’t think Rudy has an easy road. There are undoubtably tens of millions of Republican primary voters who will never vote for a pro-choice candidate.
Nevertheless, he’s got a shot…
Rudy hasn’t even read the 9/11 report, and really showed his ignorance when he “bested” Ron Paul.
Expect Ron’s internet popularity to start showing in the real-world “scientific” polls very soon.
Yes, yes, he may break 2% before this is all over…