Decision ‘08

Rudy G. - The Candidate Of SoCons?

So says a Politico analysis of recent polls:

Rudy Giuliani, whose positions on abortion and homosexuality mark him as the most socially liberal Republican presidential candidate in more than a generation, is so far winning the contest for the support of social conservatives, according to a new analysis of recent polls.

Widespread perceptions that Giuliani is the most electable Republican in this year’s field are driving his support among social conservatives, according to the analysis by the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life.

If the trend holds, this apparent willingness to support a candidate who fails what were once regarded as litmus-test issues would mark a landmark shift in the political behavior of a constituency that has been a pillar of the modern GOP. Already the shift is spurring sharp debate among prominent Christian conservative leaders, some of whom warn that Giuliani backers are abandoning core principles.

Forty-four percent of social conservatives in the Pew analysis believe that the former New York mayor has the “best chance” of becoming president in 2008. Less than half that figure, 19 percent, regard Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) as the most viable, despite twice as many social conservatives stating that McCain “comes closest” to their view on abortion. All other Republican candidates lagged far behind.

These calculations about electability are helping propel Giuliani over McCain among social conservatives, even though the Arizonan shares the opposition of most of these voters to abortion rights.

Giuliani is winning 30 percent of the social conservative bloc, compared to 22 percent for McCain. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney captured just 8 percent — a figure that puts Romney in fourth place, behind former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who is currently not a declared candidate.

Interesting, though I’ve no doubt that a sizable chunk of SoCons could NEVER bring themselves to back a candidate who is pro-choice and pro-gay rights. I find the reason SoCons state for their support to be quite compelling, however, and it’s one I’ve raised myself quite often: Giuliani is the Republican who has the best shot at winning.

Why this new pragmatism among social conservatives? Simple - November 2006. It was the classic wake-up call, and Republicans who had grown accustomed to such drivel as ‘the permanent Republican majority’ were faced with the quite real prospect of a loss in 2008, as well. That loss may yet come about - though Hillary will face long, long odds if she is the Democratic nominee. Nevertheless, the move to electibility makes perfect sense…

11 Responses to “Rudy G. - The Candidate Of SoCons?”

1 David M. Smith Says:
May 30th, 2007 at 11:14 am
Hi Mark,

I can understand how many social conservative voters would take a pragmatic view of politics. After all, most Republicans running, except Representative Paul, would be better to them than any Democratic candidate running for President.

I have a different interpretation though. Voters who oppose abortion on demand and who are tired of their social positions based on their religious faith being ridiculed don’t want to have to place a purely pragmatic vote. These voters are looking for a candidate who represents their views fairly and who is capable of beating the Democrats.

Mayor Giuliani could have won over these voters if he would have modified his abortion and gun control positions, but he didn’t, so while he may be receiving support in the polls, I doubt his support has solidified. Recent polls are showing his numbers decreasing.

Senator Fred Thompson has an opening that will surely change the results of the polls of social conservatives.

Governor Romney is also going to start spending some of the vast money he is raising to get support from Christian conservatives who would otherwise be reluctant to support him.

Brokered Convention anyone?

In the end, I’m not sure Republicans will come to the conclusion Mayor Giuliani is the best hope for Republicans to win the election.
2 JB Says:
May 30th, 2007 at 1:35 pm
“Giuliani is the Republican who has the best shot at winning.” - this strategy by Giuliani supporters such as yourself - to repeat this falsism often enough until it is perceived to be true - has several major flaws: It’s based on polls taken 18 months before the general, a time during which only real political junkies are paying any attention and when such polls are driven almost exclusively by name recognition; second, the fact is that as more and more Republicans learn more about Giuliani and his positions over the past few months, his poll numbers have consistently and steadily fell; third, social conservative leaders (with whom I am not allied BTW) understand that a Giuliani victory next November effectively renders them politically powerless - Giuliani will have proven that socons are not needed to win either the nomination or the general - and will flex what muscles they have now to prevent such a scenario from unfolding. IMO, it would be very, very surprising if a third party socon candidate did not run next year should Giuliani win the Republican nomination, in that case, so much for Giuliani’s electability.

Just my view…have a good one.
3 Fargus Says:
May 30th, 2007 at 2:23 pm
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/TheCarpetbaggerReport/~3/120834579/10955.html

Have you read about this, Mark? Just thought you’d be interested. I know it doesn’t have anything to do with the topic, but I thought it was germane since you’d posted on it before.
4 Gulf Coast Bandit Says:
May 30th, 2007 at 3:56 pm
I agree with JB, out of personal experience.
I used to think the same way, Mark – a SoCon that supported Giuliani because “he was most electable.” I even posted a guest-blog to that effect here last July, exploring the possibilities with the Electoral College with a Giuliani nomination.
My pro-life-ness was comforted by the fact that he was going to be “federalist” on such issues, which amounts to overturning Roe, letting the states decide what their policy on abortion would be. As the old Arab proverb says, “The enemy of my enemy is my friend.”
Then, I found out about the gun-control bit. I was slightly less comfortable.
Then, I discovered the Draft Fred! movement, and found that there was a candidate who has just as much, if not more, “face recognition” than Rudy. After all, who doesn’t watch Law and Order? I found myself drifting away from Rudy.
Then, I heard, “strict constructionist” doesn’t necessarily mean the same thing to Mayor Giuliani that it does to me. I found myself solidly behind ~~Arthur Branch~~ Fred Thompson.
This is the evolution that will take place in a SoCon’s mind as average SoCon voter discovers the same information I did. My money is solidly on Fred.
5 JB Says:
May 30th, 2007 at 4:48 pm
Bandit:

Wow! I’ve drifted toward Mitt…other than that your story fits mine to a tee.
6 Sean P Says:
May 30th, 2007 at 5:16 pm
I think GCB an JB are looking at the electability argument from an overly narrow lense. The reason Rudy supporters see him as electable is not primarily his social views, but from the following factors:

Rudy has a record of accomplishment that is independant of that of the current President. Thompson can be fairly easily tied to Bush through his voting record; Romney through similarities in their (thin) resumes at the time of election; and McCain has no executive experience to predict how he would handle a crisis.

Rudy has the ability to put blocks of voters/ regions of the country in play. Again, its not just moderates we’re talking about, here. Rudy does extremely well among Italian-Americans, a voting bloc that is fairly well representated on the east coast and that ordinarily votes Democrat. Rudy also polls better than most Republican candidates among jewish and hispanic voters. Plus, Rudy was probably a more popular Mayor among the NYC commuters who couldn’t stand living in the city anymore but still worked there, and say the improvement in the quality of life firsthand. Adding up just his geographical and ethnic advantage — which is completely separate from the assumption he will attract moderate/ independant support — Rudy flips New Jersey and Pennsylvania and, at a minimum, moves New York, Connecticut and (gasp!) Rhode Island into the competitive column. Plus, NY expatriate support will probably be enough to push Florida OUT of the Dems potential pickup pickup column.
7 Ryan Bonneville Says:
May 30th, 2007 at 5:51 pm
Hmm, I take a slightly different view. I think, fundamentally, the socons want a candidate who will give them war and torture. Giuliani is the only big Republican they know they can count on.
8 Stan Peterson Says:
May 30th, 2007 at 8:10 pm
I too support Guiliani and for the same pragmatic reasons. The only thing that can advance prolife positions is a Republican president and hopefully a Republican Senate.

Bringing a Republican Senate requires a a Landslide and only Rudy has the possibility of sweeping some Blue States to the GOP column.

I know that Hillary would appoint a clone of Ms. Ginsburg and probably a three or four more, ending any hope of a generation to end this abomination and remnant of Nazi Eugenics and racial policies.
9 JB Says:
May 30th, 2007 at 8:59 pm
#8; How exactly does electing an abortion rights advocate like Giuliani advance prolife positions, especially considering Giuliani himself suggests that the ’strict constitutionalist’ justices he appoints may just as easily find Roe to be good law as bad. And this issue is not entirely in the hands of the courts, as many Rudy supporters like to suggest. Do you honestly believe, given his history, that Rudy would have signed the PBA ban as Bush did? Obviously, it’s impossible to say with 100% certainty. You may say yes and be correct. But I don’t believe for one second that he would have supported a ban on PBA.

Personally, I’m already tired of this debate. Most of us on these sites have our minds made up one way or the other; opinions aren’t being swayed by these posts. If intelligent and otherwise conservative Republicans want to stick their collective heads in the sand and choose to believe that a President Giuliani would be functionally pro-life, pro second amendment, and pro family-values despite all of the evidence to the contrary, then they are completely free to do so; just don’t be surprised when a third party candidate runs to the right next year and spoils your party.
10 Aaron Says:
May 30th, 2007 at 9:33 pm
We can never be certain of the types of justices that presidents will appoint. Remember, Anthony Kennedy and Sandra Day O’Connor — both “moderates” or “swing votes” on the court — were appointed by a bonafide conservative and a die-hard liberal, Souter, was appointed by a moderate-conservative president.

I support Giuliani, not just because I think he stands the best chance at winning the presidency, but because I think he stands the best chance at winning the war.
11 Mark Says:
May 30th, 2007 at 10:38 pm
Fargus, regarding the Plame, see my latest - I admit that it looks like she was covert, but I don’t think it’s been ‘proven’ conclusively. Still, I suppose the weight of evidence leans more and more to her being covert…