Decision ‘08

Party Over, Oops, Out Of Time

The cold hard facts appear to be these: absent a U.S. or Israeli military strike, Iran will have the bomb. Soon…very soon. Here’s the Chicago Tribune:

Iran appears to have solved most of its technological problems and is beginning to enrich uranium on a far larger scale than before. Tehran may well have passed the critical point, at which its scientists have mastered the technological feat of keeping thousands of delicate centrifuges spinning at terrific speeds. If so, that means all the assumptions about when Iran might be capable of enriching enough uranium to build a bomb would need to be recalculated. Tehran’s ability to build a bomb — estimated by various intelligence officials to be five to 10 years off — is likely to be moved up.

Here’s the math: International inspectors reportedly found that Iran has about 1,300 centrifuges running. If the Iranians can sustain that progress, their next milestone comes when they’ve got 3,000 running. At that point, nuclear experts said, Iran would be able to produce enough highly enriched uranium for a bomb within nine months or so.

“We believe they pretty much have the knowledge about how to enrich,” International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei told The New York Times. “From now on, it is simply a question of perfecting that knowledge. People will not like to hear it, but that’s a fact.”

No, we don’t like to hear it. But the sooner that fact is acknowledged, the sooner the Security Council can drop the pretense that the slow ratcheting of sanctions will force the Iranians to freeze their enrichment efforts. Incremental pressure won’t budge Iran. The only sanctions with even the faintest hope of stopping the Iranians are also the ones that would require the greatest international cooperation and cause the most economic pain worldwide.

Embargoing Iran’s oil exports, for instance, would stagger Iran’s already shaky economy. But the embargo would likely spring huge leaks even as pump prices rocketed. The other sensitive Iranian target: gasoline. Iran has huge oil reserves but it lacks sufficient refinery capacity and must import more than a third of its gasoline, mainly from Europe and India. A gas embargo could devastate much of the country’s industry, if it were enforced. Such dramatic measures could also backfire, rallying support for the ruling mullahs.

The next UN Security Council deadline for Iran to ignore falls next week.

That last sentence is very well put. For they will ignore all the deadlines. Sanctions with teeth? Not gonna happen with Russia and China involved.

The game is over, except for one possible play: the risky hail mary of air strikes. They may not hit their targets, they may hit only some of them, we might not even know the targets; the world will be outraged, and Israel and the United States condemned from every corner.

Still, it’s that or a nuclear Iran. The choice is now that stark…

10 Responses to “Party Over, Oops, Out Of Time”

1 too many steves Says:
May 17th, 2007 at 8:39 am
Air strikes require political cover, both domestically and internationally, our cache of which is expended.

Game over is right, but then, the fat lady sang her tune awhile ago (I promise no more trite metaphors) on this situation.
2 Gwedd Says:
May 17th, 2007 at 12:10 pm
Comrades,

My apologies, Mark, et al, for my paucity of commenting as of late. Real world issues reared their ugly head, and well, that’s that. Sigh.

Iran. What else is there to say? The government is bent upon bringing about Armageddon (or it’s Islamic variant) in order to restore the 12th Imam, and bring on the “happy times”. People keep hearing these lectures, listening to the words, watching the actions, but, as with Hitler in “Mein Kampf”, folks refuse to take them seriously.

I cannot fathom how, with so much historical precedence, so many refuse to take folks like Ahmadinijab at his word. Literally. The man rants about razing Israel with fire, of bringing about the end of the world, etc. He’s up to his eyeballs in nuclear technology, openly talking about making Iran a nuclear power. Yet, the UN, the MSM, and many world (alledged)leaders keep pooh-poohing the idea that, well, he might actuially MEAN what he says.

The world has fiddled while Iran keeps slowly but purposely developing nuclear weapons and the platforms to accurately deliver them. This will now, regardless of whatever actions are taken, not end well.

Whether Iran’s oil exports and gas imports are embargoed makes no difference at all, because only direct military actions, of a scale far and above that used on Iraq will stop this madman’s rush to world-wide doom. When the warheads start detonating in Iran, or over Israel, or Iraq, or through Al-Qaida’s cells, Iran’s petroleum industry will grinf to a screeching halt, and it will be years, if not decades for production to resume.

The world had best get used to the idea of a reduction of oil on the market, because Iran’s days are numbered. Literally.

Years from now, I would like to think there will be a heavy-handed accounting of all in power, both Iranian and elsewhere, who let this madness reach this point. There will be nuclear weapions used. It will be a lot sooner than anyone imagines. Bank on that.

Other than that, Mark, how’s your day going?

Respects,
3 Ryan Bonneville Says:
May 17th, 2007 at 1:26 pm
I predict Iran with the bomb will matter as much as India and Pakistan with the bomb - i.e., we’ll all pull our hair and be stressed out a lot more but virtually nothing bad will happen.
4 mikebdot Says:
May 17th, 2007 at 3:02 pm
It’s a “slam dunk” that they’ll attach Israel. We better attack before they do so. “Wolf!”? Anyone hear something? “Wolf!” How ironic, or perhaps retributionally karmic…
5 SteveMG Says:
May 18th, 2007 at 8:44 pm
Great, the CIA told us that they were a minimum of 5-7 years away.

That was last year.

With Iran getting a nuclear weapon, the other nations in the region will respond similarly. A Shi’a bomb. A Sunni bomb.

Loose nukes, loose nuclear material in a unstable region where fanatical religious radicals operate. Unlike India and Pakistan where broadly speaking, there’s been a less radical governing elite, Iran today shows no signs.

This ain’t Bombay getting the bombs.
6 Gwedd Says:
May 19th, 2007 at 9:13 am
Ryan,

It must be nice to live in a closed, warm & fuzzy place, where reality rarely intrudes. This nation, and any nation that values democracy, as we define it, cannot afford to do anything less than take the Mullahacracy which rules Iran at it’s word.

Iran has stated it will remove Israel from the map.

Iran has stated that Israel will be burned away.

Iran has publicly stated it’s support for Islam, and especially, Sharia to be the only acceptable method for world government.

I ran has built and tested missiles with sufficient range to hit Europe.

Iran has publicly stated it will become a nuclear power.

Iran has publicly stated that Christians and Jews, and other non-muslims are sub-humans.

Any of this rhetoric starting to sound familiar?

Iran is a clear and present danger to the world, let alone the United States or Israel.

When I ran gets it’s nuclear wepons, it will use them. We are obligated to take them at their word. To do otherwise is inconceivable to someone with any sort of education.

Respects,
7 Jack Rich Says:
May 19th, 2007 at 2:33 pm
Gwedd is correct. History tells us, with stark clarity, to believe it when a leader who has his nation’s assets at his disposal makes warlike claims.

However, as with any criminal endeavor, it takes a combination of intent, capability, and opportunity.

We can not do much about Iran’s intent, but we can surely do something about their capability to wage unprovoked nuclear. It’s called bombing, and will entail much collateral damage. Hard cheese; better Iranians then Israelis or Europeans.

Of course, we probably won’t have the stones to do what must be done, and Israel is most unlikely to act without our blessing. With this consequence: once Iran has a nuclear weapon capability, it becomes harder to deny them the opportunity of using it. Here’s where a latter-day version of mutually-assured destruction (MAD) probably won’t work. One can not deter religious fanatics.

How many millions of Iranians, and of innocent others (I don’t hold Iranians to be wholly innocent; it’s their country after all; let them clean it up before it becomes a threat to the world), must die because of greedy Chinese and Russian plutocrats?
8 Ryan Bonneville Says:
May 19th, 2007 at 11:56 pm
History tells us what now? I’m fairly certain that the Soviets routinely made “warlike claims” and then did virtually nothing to carry them out. India and Pakistan have thrown insults at each other for decades and nothing has come of it. MAD is a powerful tool for nuclear states and there’s no evidence that it won’t work just fine this time. Asking me to believe that Ahmadinejad is going to go bonkers and ensure that Iran gets completely wiped off the map by bombing Israel is asking me to believe something that no rational person would believe. He’s just not that crazy.

Gwedd, due respect, but your fear-mongering is precisely that. Rhetoric is rhetoric - someone with any sort of education would take the time to actually understand the complexities of a situation before spouting off. But then again, this is George Bush’s ‘Merka now, where the terrists is out ta get us all. It’ll be really amazing if we ever have a Democratic president and the sky doesn’t actually fall on us.
9 Ryan Bonneville Says:
May 19th, 2007 at 11:59 pm
One more thing: calling the people of Iran not-innocent is moral depravity at its most hilarious. You think the average citizen of Iran chose this government or can do anything to get rid of it? I’d buy you a clue, but you need far more of them than I could afford.
10 Gwedd Says:
May 20th, 2007 at 8:47 pm
Ryan,

Yeah, the Germans would NEVER violate Belgian Neutrality… for a third time……

That nice Mr. Hitler would NEVER actually try and kill all the Jews. He’s just saying those things.

The Soviets would NEVER execute all the Ukranians we repatriate. That’s ABSURD!

Of COURSE we can trust Mr. Arafat! He’s just saying those anti-Israel things for political reasons.

Oh, those Serbs & Croats aren’t REALLY trying to kill eachother. It’s just posturing for the news media!

Japan attack the United States? They could NEVER be that foolish!

There is a world of difference between the antagonists of the Cold War and the leaders of Iran. The Soviets and Americans were vying for cultural suppremacy. Ideas and philosophies. We talked, they talked, we tried to work things out.

Ahmadinijab is all about Armaggedon. He is actively seeking to bring about the return of the 12th Imam. he has stated this time and time again. He has publicly called for the destruction of Israel, and of the Jews. He is developing nuclear weapons, and the delivery systems to use them. He is quite probably even more of a psychopath than Hitler, and even Pol Pot. He’s right up there with Che Guevera for lunacy.

This nation, heck the WORLD cannot allow the Iranians to get their hands on Nukes. We cannot afford to NOT take him and the Mad Mullahs at their word, especially when the Koran itself talks about the end of times, when “Even the rocks and trees will cry out “Oh Muslim, here is a Jew hiding behind me. Come and Kill him”.

Feel free to forward what clues you might have to the Iranian Embassy. They are in the yellow pages. Online too.

Respects,