Gallup: Hillary Surging, Rudy Holds Steady
Some news sure to calm the nerves of Rudy supporters who haven’t had much to cheer about over the last couple of weeks, and further confirmation that Hillary is widening her lead over Obama, comes from Gallup today:
A new USA Today/Gallup poll finds Hillary Clinton solidifying her lead over Barack Obama and the rest of the field for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination, while Rudy Giuliani continues to lead among Republicans. This is the first poll conducted after each party held televised debates on cable television. Aside from a slightly better showing for Clinton, preferences for both parties’ nominations have changed little from the prior poll in mid-April.
…The May 4-6, 2007, poll finds 38% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents saying they are most likely to support Clinton for the party’s 2008 presidential nomination. Barack Obama is a clear second at 23%, followed by Al Gore (14%), and John Edwards (12%). All other candidates receive 2% or less support.
…The latest poll finds little change in Republicans’ nomination preferences. Giuliani has held a significant lead over McCain in each poll since February. In the current poll, 34% of Republicans and independent-leaning Republicans name Giuliani as their top choice for the party’s 2008 presidential nomination, while 20% choose McCain. Fred Thompson — the actor and former Tennessee senator who said he is considering a candidacy — is chosen by 13% of Republicans. Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, who has also hinted at a possible candidacy, gets 8% support, and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney gets 7%. All other candidates score at 2% or lower.
Interesting that NO candidates of the second tier of either party received any bounce whatsoever from the exposure during the debates, and that Romney still languishes in single digits despite widespread belief he won on the Republican side…
2 Responses to “Gallup: Hillary Surging, Rudy Holds Steady”
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May 9th, 2007 at 11:35 am
As I noted yesterday, Rudy and Hillary consistently perform better in Gallup polls than others. My suspicion is that Gallup discourages don’t know/ unsure responses, which in turn causes voters who haven’t really given the issue much thought to name the frontrunners. I wish this wasn’t the case, because I would love to see Rudy as the nominee, and because a Rudy/Hillary matchup is the one matchup the Republicans would win a decisive 35-40 state near-landslide even in the current electoral enviornment, but I don’t think Rudy or Hillary’s leads are as high as Gallup has them.
What IS interesting, however, is that Rudy’s margin over his opponents is consistently at least a bit larger than Hillary’s lead over hers. After all, Hillary was at one point considered as inevitable as an incumbent, while Rudy was deemed the “front-running underdog” whose support was supposed to have largely dissapated by now.
May 9th, 2007 at 8:18 pm
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Steve