Decision ‘08

Hillary Steams Ahead

Is Obama still a rock star? Instead of Bono, he’s starting to poll more like Art Garfunkel (take that, all you other political writer types out there!):

Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-New York, has increased her lead over the Democratic field in the race for the presidential nomination, according to a new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll released Monday afternoon.In the past month, Clinton’s support among Democrats rose to 38 percent from 30 percent, while support for Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, dropped by two percentage points to 24 percent, according to the poll taken this past weekend.

In a very distant third, Al Gore tied John Edwards with 12% apiece, and Mike Gravel is riding the wave of Nutroots® acclaim that accompanied his paranoid, delusional rantings at the first Democratic debate, by rating an *. That’s right. That would be an asterisk as in ’support did not register’.

But by God, he really socked it to those neocons!…

5 Responses to “Hillary Steams Ahead”

1 Aaron Says:
May 7th, 2007 at 8:03 pm
Gravel’s doing nicely on the PJM strawpoll — beating everybody but Richardson among the Dems — at 22%. On D’08, he’s the only one with more than one vote. But Tommy Thompson’s got at least as many votes as everyone else in the GOP here. Maybe people thought they were voting for Fred.

As for Obama, I’d expect him to end up like Francois Bayrou did in France earlier this year. His support ballooned out to be within a few percent of the big dogs, and then he popped when people realized he was all nice talk and had little hope of real action. Obama will be more likely to support Hillary, unlike Bayrou, who went off and pouted when he didn’t make it out of the first round.
2 Anonymous Liberal Says:
May 7th, 2007 at 10:43 pm
I think you’ve been suckered by statistical noise, Mark. Most other polls show Obama gaining ground (Rasmussen has him ahead). But all of this is pretty irrelevant at this point anyway. The only polls that really matter are the ones of Iowa caucus goers and those are known to flunctuate wildly in the days and weeks prior to the caucuses.
3 too many steves Says:
May 8th, 2007 at 11:00 am
Guys, these national polls are useless, with the possible exception as indicators of trends. None of the candidates are campaigning nationally, there has been just one national public appearance for most of the candidates (the recent debates) and very few people actually watched those.

Btw, Romney is polling in the lead in NH, another place, like Iowa, where the candidates have infrastructure and are actively soliciting support. Polls of these areas are meaningful indicators of relative electoral strength.
4 Sean P Says:
May 8th, 2007 at 12:35 pm
At this stage in the game, the difference in methodogy makes a huge difference in results. Hillary and Giuliani have consistently registered huge leads in Gallup polling, while Rasmussen seems to be the most favorable to Obama and Thompson & Romney. CNN’s poll can only be compared to the last CNN poll for evidence of movement one way or another.
5 Gulf Coast Bandit Says:
May 8th, 2007 at 5:58 pm
Do you think it would be wasting our money if we all sent money to Gravel so he can buy a few ads in key states and maybe get some delegates to the convention? With the primaries all being, like, on the same day, it might be a situation where nobody has a majority and every delegate counts. They ought to love that - every vote counts… a real convention…