Informed Speculation

Well, here we go again:

House Democrats today unveiled a plan for pulling U.S. troops out of Iraq by the end of August 2008, introducing legislation that attaches a complex series of conditions to military spending requested by President Bush.

The plan, described in a Capitol Hill news conference by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and other Democratic leaders, would require Bush to certify that the Iraqi government is meeting military, political and economic benchmarks this year. If he cannot, it would move up the U.S. withdrawal to as early as the end of 2007.

Well, no one is fooled here: the provisions on veteran care and Aghanistan (though laudable and worth enacting on their own, outside of a politicized process such as this) are strictly window dressing to try to pry Republicans away from the big goal of ending the war.  It won’t work. 

The Republicans wasted no time in confirming that:

The proposal immediately came under attack from the House Republican leader, Rep. John A. Boehner of Ohio, who accused Democrats of offering a bill that would result in failure of the U.S. mission in Iraq by “establishing and telegraphing to our enemy a timetable” for U.S. withdrawal.

The bill has some chance of passing, though, since the conservative Democrats look like they’re in – but what about the anti-war Democrats?

…[O]ther antiwar Democrats were adamantly opposed.

Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) said she could not accept legislation that relies on Bush to certify that benchmarks are being met in Iraq or that the troops are rested and trained.

“They’re asking me to trust the president of the United States, who everybody agrees has mismanaged, misled and lied to us,” she said.

Yes, Waters said, the legislation is supposed to get the troops out of combat by Aug. 31, 2008, regardless of Bush’s actions. But, she added, for many Democrats, that is far too late.

Well, there’s always the veto…

UPDATE 2:12 p.m.: David Stout of the New York Times doesn’t give the bill much of a chance:

…[D]espite the Democrats’ advantage in the House (233 seats, to 201 for the Republicans), the leadership’s proposal seems to have very little chance of advancing, since Republicans are nearly united against it and Democrats are split, with some conservatives saying it goes too far in aiming to wind down the war in Iraq and liberals saying it does not go far enough.

Indeed, the Republican minority leader, Representative John A. Boehner of Ohio, practically invited his Democratic colleagues to bring the measure to the floor.

“Can you defeat this bill?” Mr. Boehner was asked at a Capitol news conference.

“Oh, we can,” he replied.

Mr. Boehner said the Democratic leadership’s idea would be self-defeating for the United States, “telegraphing to our enemy” a timetable for pulling out. Mr. Bush has repeatedly made the same argument.

“Unfortunately, the Democrats’ latest plan is a twist on an old adage: failure at any cost,” Mr. Boehner said. “The Democrats are using the critical troop-funding bill to micromanage the war on terror, undermining our generals on the ground and slowly choking off resources for our troops.”

If a bill with an arbitrary deadline were ever passed, Mr. Boehner said, America’s enemies in Iraq would “step back, sit back and wait until the dates come and go and then go ahead and press your attack.”

…Ms. Pelosi refused to concede that the proposal’s chances are dim, even as a questioner noted that as many as 70 House Democrats want the United States out of Iraq by the end of 2007. “We will come together and find our common ground,” she said.

Even if the proposal has little chance of being approved, it will certainly fan the heated debate over Iraq.