Decision ‘08

New Quinnipiac Poll: Rudy Ahead Of All Dems, Leads McCain By 22%

This poll is chock-full of goodness if you’re a Rudy fan like a certain blogger I know:

Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani leads Sen. Hillary Clinton 48 - 43 percent among American voters in a 2008 national presidential poll released by Quinnipiac University today. Arizona Sen. John McCain edges Sen. Clinton 46 - 44 percent.

Giuliani tops Clinton 55 - 38 percent in Red states, which voted Republican in the 2004 presidential election, and ties her 46 - 46 percent in Blue states, which went Democratic in 2004. He gets 44 percent to Clinton’s 45 percent in Purple states, where the margin in 2004 was less than 7 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. In other possible presidential matchups:

• Clinton tops former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney 49 - 37 percent;
• Giuliani beats Illinois Sen. Barack Obama 47 - 40 percent;
• Giuliani tops 2004 vice presidential candidate John Edwards 48 - 40 percent;
• McCain ties Obama 43 - 43 percent;
• McCain gets 43 percent to Edward’s 42 percent, a tie;
• Obama tops Romney 49 - 29 percent;
• Edwards beats Romney 48 - 32 percent.

“After 9/11, Rudolph Giuliani earned the title ‘America’s Mayor.’ After the 2008 election, he could be America’s President,” said Maurice Carroll, Director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “But we vote in November 2008, not February 2007 - and lots of things can happen. Let’s watch the state-by-state breakdown and the Electoral College. Remember 2000?”

“When we look at the Red, Blue and Purple state matchups, we see Giuliani running strong in any color, while Sen. Clinton outpoints Sen. McCain in Blue and Purple states. Sen. Obama and John Edwards are in the middle somewhere and Mitt Romney is nowhere, actually losing to Obama and Edwards in Red states, where voters probably just don’t know the former Massachusetts governor.”

Clinton gets 38 percent of Democratic primary voters, followed by Obama with 23 percent, former Vice President Al Gore with 11 percent and Edwards with 6 percent.

Giuliani gets 40 percent of Republicans, followed by McCain with 18 percent, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 10 percent and Romney at 7 percent.

American voters give Giuliani a 57 - 21 percent favorability rating. Favorability ratings for other contenders are:
• 46 - 45 percent for Clinton;
• 51 - 22 percent for McCain;
• 44 - 14 percent for Obama, with 40 percent who haven’t heard enough to form an opinion;
• 44 - 27 percent for Edwards;
• 44 - 47 percent for Gore;
• 22 - 47 percent for Gingrich;

For Romney, 67 percent haven’t heard enough to form an opinion.

That’s about the only good news for Romney…and look, another poll with Gore at near 50% unfavorables! And Hillary at 45% unfavorable - yum, yum. And the dessert:

When we look at the Red, Blue and Purple state matchups, we see Giuliani running strong in any color.

Rudy is a serious contender, that’s undeniable, whether you love him or hate him…

15 Responses to “New Quinnipiac Poll: Rudy Ahead Of All Dems, Leads McCain By 22%”

1 Dennis Says:
February 21st, 2007 at 1:27 pm
Perhaps I’m wrong, but it seems to me that in several polls that have come out since Giuliani announced, his lead over McCain seems to have doubled, or something close to that. I don’t know where Giuliani’s new voters are coming from, but given that Romney at al are happy just to break double digits, I’ve got to think it’s coming at the expense of McCain. I wonder how many of McCain’s voters were just parking themselves in his column because they didn’t think Giuliani would run.

Obviously it’s a bit ridiculous to talk too much about momentum this far out. McCain could still be the Kerry to Giuliani’s Howard Dean. But just about every election cycle smashes some piece of conventional wisdom (and in so doing, forges a new piece of conventional wisdom), so the folks who are dead certain Giuliani can’t win the Republican nomination must be thinking twice now.

(Incidentally, I could probably vote for Giuliani or McCain. Neither is perfect, but I’d be mostly satisfied. If it’s Romney, I’d seriously consider voting for the Democrat. I’m not a social conservative, but more damningly, I don’t think Romney knows if he’s a social conservative. He seems to be just playing one for votes. I don’t want to vote for a president who is just the sum of polling results.)
2 Mark Says:
February 21st, 2007 at 1:43 pm
I could vote for McCain, too, but Rudy excites me far more…I don’t know about Romney…he does seem to be floundering a bit, but as you say, it’s very early…
3 Paul Dirks Says:
February 21st, 2007 at 1:54 pm
It will be interestiing. There are of course several things about Rudy that will cost him among evangelicals as they come to light down the road. I do think that many liberals hate him less than McCain. As I said, it will be interesting….
4 Mark Says:
February 21st, 2007 at 1:56 pm
Yeah, but Paul, these things aren’t sudden revelations, they’re already known. It’s much more damaging if something actually comes to light during the middle of the campaign. Now, I know most voters don’t know about these things yet, but we keep hearing wait until everyone hears about ‘x’, and more and more people are hearing about ‘x’, and his poll numbers keep going up.

I’m more surprised about the muted showing of Obama so far…he’s so personable compared to Hillary, I’m just having a hard time seeing why he’s getting smoked (pun intended) to date…
5 Sean P Says:
February 21st, 2007 at 2:01 pm
My guess is that Rudy’s new supporters were people who were already inclined to support him but held off backing him to pollsters because they bought the “Rudy isn’t running because he can’t win” CW spin of up to, oh, three weeks ago.

I’m inclined to think that Rudy can’t get any higher than he’s at right now until the field starts winnowing down some, but McCain’s shift to the right on social issues could shake loose some support for Rudy (who had ironically been running second to McCain for the support of moderates and independants).
6 Paul Dirks Says:
February 21st, 2007 at 2:07 pm
I’m more surprised about the muted showing of Obama so far…he’s so personable compared to Hillary, I’m just having a hard time seeing why he’s getting smoked (pun intended) to date…

That might be the fact that he’s only got about five minutes experience. (though some might regard that as an advantage.)
7 Mark Says:
February 21st, 2007 at 2:13 pm
There’s no doubt Rudy’s unfavorables will go up considerably - he can’t be expected to remain in the teens and low 20s, particularly with his past. But he’s got a good comfort margin and could easily double his unfavorable ratings without jeopardizing his chances….
8 Mark Says:
February 21st, 2007 at 2:45 pm
Paul, I do think Obama should have waited until 2012 - but maybe I started falling for the hype, too…they’re expecting 10,000 for him here in Austin Friday, but then again, Austin is VERY ‘progressive’…
9 Dennis Says:
February 21st, 2007 at 3:23 pm
Now, I know most voters don’t know about these things yet, but we keep hearing wait until everyone hears about ‘x’, and more and more people are hearing about ‘x’, and his poll numbers keep going up.

That’s what keeps striking me, Mark. I realize us political junkies pay much more attention to this stuff than normal people, but it seems to me that, for months now, every news story on Giuliani running for president has included the obligatory “it remains to be seen” paragraph. People who identify themselves as Republicans to pollsters probably pay some attention to this stuff, and if things like Giuliani’s messy divorces were real deal-killers, we would have seen some effect in the polls by now.

Regarding Obama, I’ve got to give his campaign one superficial bit of credit: his logo is brilliant: Clever visual pun of the letter O, a rising sun, farmer’s field and the whole thing doubling as a stylized flag. Most campaign logos are pedestrian affairs that look like they were whipped up in about 5 minutes. Obama’s looks like someone put some real thought into it.
10 Mark Says:
February 21st, 2007 at 3:29 pm
Nice web page, too…
11 Dennis New Jersey Says:
February 21st, 2007 at 8:35 pm
I could vote for Rudy. I do not believe he is as liberal as he appears. He did have to win in New York City.
12 Gulf Coast Bandit Says:
February 21st, 2007 at 10:13 pm
Didn’t I say this back in July? (Not to brag on myself or anything…)
13 Dan Says:
February 25th, 2007 at 8:11 am
Polls don’t matter much at this stage. No one knew who Bill Clinton was back in the early 90’s. There were 8 hopefuls and most were better known than him. The only polls that will indicate anything will be the straw polls of the delegates about one to two months from the first primary. I suspect that giuliani will flop in those polls because he is playing to the general audience and not the delegates. The real question is who is better organized with these delegates–I suspect Mccain or even Romney will trounce giuliani with the delegates.
14 Gunner244 Says:
March 2nd, 2007 at 3:02 pm
Anybody but the Empress of the North. I like Rudy anyway. He actually gives straight answers and doesn’t tap dance when his shortcomings are brought up. I also like someone with a slight lisp than someone who screeches. The number one thing about Rudy however is that he promises to nominate Constitutional conservatives for the bench. Since Aunt Hillary nominated “stalwarts” like Ginsberg - who is as dumb as a box of rocks - and the ever up-front Janet Reno - who could turn a three dollar bill into a nine dollar bill - then you can bet your house that Hillary will nominate another legislator-from-the-bench moron/crook. If the past teaches us anything it teaches us that if we vote for a scoundrel - like Empress Hillary Rodham Stalin - with a neon sign that highlights her track record then we deserve what we get.

We take things from you for the common good.
–Empress Hillary Rodham Rodham - 2004 on why she likes to tax Americans.
15 PJ Says:
March 11th, 2007 at 3:33 pm
Romney is the most underrated candidate in either field. He has been a successful venture capitalist, made hundreds of millios of dollars, was called back to save and build a company he worked for previously, saved the SLC winter olympics from financial and public disgrace, and has been an extremely able Governor.

And Obama is the most overrated one, a complete product of media-driven hype and the Democratic left’s desperation for a candidate with zero fingerprints on the start of the Iraq war (ie the machinations of Edwards and Hillary Clinton to say they are against something they supported Obama is fully capable of being an even worse president than Jimmy Carter was.