Informed Speculation

Democrats such as Nancy Pelosi, Joe Biden, and Teddy Kennedy are already furiously spinning the UK’s imminent withdrawal of 1,600 troops as a sign that we are going against the grain with the surge, but that’s not what Tony Blair says:

Even after the planned withdrawals, “the UK military presence will continue into 2008 or as long as we are wanted and have a job to do,” Blair said in a speech to the House of Commons.

…Both Blair and Bush, who spoke by video link Tuesday, sought to downplay any policy split on Iraq. In his address to the House of Commons, Blair said conditions were vastly different in Basra in southern Iraq, where British troops are located, than in Baghdad where U.S. troops are patrolling.

He said “80 to 90 percent of the violence” was in Baghdad, a city suffering from what he called an “orgy of terrorism.”

Blair said the British troops had just completed a months-long operation to turn control of Basra’s security over to Iraqi forces.

Basra remained a “dangerous” place, Blair said, but he said that Iraqis would “write the next chapter” in its history.

“We’re pleased that conditions in Basra have improved sufficiently that they are able to transition more control to the Iraqis,” said White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe. “President Bush sees this as a sign of success and what is possible for us once we help the Iraqis deal with sectarian violence.”

The surge in U.S. troops is designed to prepare the way for a similar transition of control to Iraqi forces.

I’m certainly not going to bash Blair for his decision.  He has been a true friend to our country, and the domestic political pressures he faces are enormous, so even if he is spinning, too, he has forever earned our gratitude…