Informed Speculation

Conflicting reports.  First, ABC News:

While members of the U.S. House of Representatives take turns weighing in on President Bush’s planned troop surge in Iraq, the focus in Iraq is not on the arrival of more U.S. troops, but the departure of one of the country’s most powerful men, Moqtada al Sadr and members of his army.

According to senior military officials, al Sadr left Baghdad two to three weeks ago and fled to Tehran, Iran, where he has family.

Al Sadr commands the Mahdi army, one of the most formidable insurgent militias in Iraq, and his move coincides with the announced U.S. troop surge in Baghdad.

Sources believe al Sadr is worried about an increase of 20,000 U.S. troops in the Iraqi capital. One official told ABC News’ Martha Raddatz, “He is scared he will get a JDAM [bomb] dropped on his house.”

Sources say some of the Mahdi army leadership went with al Sadr.

The AP reports, however, that some sources in Iraq, including the cleric’s supporters, but also government officials, insist that Sadr is in country:

The chief U.S. military spokesman in Iraq said Wednesday that Muqtada al-Sadr has left the country and is believed to be in Iran, despite denials from the radical Shiite cleric’s supporters. Maj. Gen. William Caldwell declined to comment on the reasons al-Sadr had left the country or give more details.

“We will acknowledge that he is not in the country and all indications are in fact that he is in Iran,” Caldwell told reporters in Baghdad.

Lawmakers and officials linked to al-Sadr have denied that he had left the country, with one saying the cleric had met with government officials late Tuesday in the Shiite holy city of Najaf.

An Iraqi government official said al-Sadr was in Najaf as recently as Tuesday night, when he received delegates from several government departments. The official, who is familiar with one of those meetings, spoke on condition of anonymity because he has no authority to disclose information on his department’s activities.

Lawmaker Nassar al-Rubaie, the head of Sadrist bloc in parliament, also insisted al-Sadr had not left the country.

“The news is not accurate because Muqtada al-Sadr is still in Iraq and he did not visit any country,” al-Rubaie told The Associated Press.

Caldwell’s statement came after another U.S. official said al-Sadr left the country some weeks ago and is believed to be in Tehran, where he has family. The U.S. official, who also spoke on condition of anonymity in order to discuss U.S. monitoring activities, said fractures in al-Sadr’s political and militia operations may be part of the reason for his departure.

While the House pontificates, the war continues…but make no mistake, the anti-surge resolution will pass the House.  That’s a given, and it’s not worth trying to stop.  How the Democrats will continue to wear the ‘we support the troops’ mantle while cutting off their funding, though – now that’s another battle altogether, and on that one, we’ve got to ‘go to the mats’…