Informed Speculation

It appears that the Bush Administration’s diplomacy is on the verge of a giant victory (and a much-needed shot in the arm):

Negotiators reached a draft agreement early this morning on a deal to begin disarming North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, the chief American negotiator to the talks said.

“We feel it’s an excellent draft,” said the American envoy, Christopher R. Hill, an assistant secretary of state.

The deal is now being reviewed by the governments of the six nations involved in the talks — the United States, North Korea, South Korea, Japan, China and Russia — and could be announced as soon as late morning. Negotiators agreed to reconvene at 10:30 a.m. today in Beijing (9:30 p.m. Monday, Eastern time).

“We’ll see if we can get approval of this,” he added. “It’s been a long day.”

The negotiations on the step-by-step deal, which the Bush administration hopes will lead North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons program, appeared near collapse on Sunday over North Korea’s demands for huge shipments of fuel oil and electricity before agreeing to a schedule for turning over its nuclear weapons and fuel.

No details were released about the agreement today, but presumably it involves a compromise on those demands.

Asked which side had made concessions in the final going, Mr. Hill said: “I think everybody had to make some changes. Let’s get this thing approved, and then talk about who did what.”

Two things to note here: one, these things have a way of falling apart at the last minute, so let’s hold off on popping the champagne.

Two, I’m very leary of North Korea living up to its agreements (which is one reason why I’m suspicious of ‘diplomacy’ in general).  We all remember how the ‘Agreed Framework’ led to North Korea developing the bomb under our very noses. 

Still, this has to count as a very positive development, not only for the Bush Administration, but for anyone who is concerned about the growing nuclear threat…