Decision ‘08

More 2008 Polling

Hillary Clinton is the clear front-runner to win the Democratic party’s nomination for President in 2008, but the Republican race will be a close contest between Senator John McCain and former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani — with McCain edging Giuliani by a three- to four-point margin. And a presidential face-off between Clinton and McCain, right now, would be close to a dead heat. Those are some of the key findings of a new TIME poll earlier this week that canvassed a random sample of 1,064 registered voters by phone.

Rudy fans, don’t despair, however; although this is the rare poll that has him running behind McCain, two tidbits should turn the heads of even Rudy-haters:

While 58% of voters familiar with Hillary Clinton have a positive view of her, 41% give her negative marks, for a net favorability score of +17. By contrast, Obama’s net favorability score is +47. On the Republican side, Giuliani has a net favorability rating of +68, with only 14% having a negative view of him. McCain’s net favorability score is +45.

A net favorability rating of +68! And that’s not all:

If the election were held now, Rudy Giuliani appears to have the support of the greatest number of respondents of both parties, with 56% indicating they would “definitely” or “probably” support him — followed by Hillary Clinton (51%) John McCain (50%) and Barack Obama (50%).

Crossover appeal, strong favorability ratings, lower negatives, high name recognition…sounds like a winner, doesn’t it?…

17 Responses to “More 2008 Polling”

1 Fargus Says:
January 25th, 2007 at 1:02 pm
Net favorability rating based, on the part of most polled, on nothing but name recognition. Are you going to argue that everybody polled knows enough about Rudy Giuliani’s policy positions to give him such a strong approval rating based on that? He hasn’t even begun to enter the national stage as a serious candidate yet, let alone the attendant smears and scrutiny.

Right now he’s a rockstar, and that’s it. The net favorability rating would probably be similar for Patrick Dempsey of Grey’s Anatomy.
2 Mark Says:
January 25th, 2007 at 1:16 pm
Well, Fargus, again, I suggest you’re projecting your own ‘interpretations’ onto straightforward poll results…
3 The Commissar Says:
January 25th, 2007 at 1:22 pm
Mark,

You should revise your subtitle. It’s not too early any more.
4 Mark Says:
January 25th, 2007 at 1:25 pm
Hmmm…you may be right - but what to change it to? How about “Wrong on Iraq since 2003?”…
5 Aaron Says:
January 25th, 2007 at 1:37 pm
“We’ve been waiting for years” Granted, that may make this appear to be an anti-Bush site . . .
6 Mark Says:
January 25th, 2007 at 1:41 pm
How about “Marginally More Popular Than Dental Work”?…
7 Fargus Says:
January 25th, 2007 at 1:55 pm
All I’m saying is that McCain and Hillary have been in the national spotlight for the last 6 years. It seems that in that net favorability score, those who have been on the scene the least benefit the most, since they haven’t had to do much to make the people who would otherwise answer “no response” change it to disapproval.
8 Mark Says:
January 25th, 2007 at 1:59 pm
Well, Giuliani is hardly a newcomer to the national spotlight - and he’s been on the national radar since at least 9/11/01 - and that’s over six years…
9 Dennis Says:
January 25th, 2007 at 2:08 pm
Fargus, no one’s arguing that Giuliani will maintain that kind of popularity forever. But it’s hard to ignore the fact that the early frontrunner for the Democrats already has pretty hefty numbers of people who have decided they don’t like her. Likability rarely goes up the more someone campaigns, and Hillary Clinton has far less room for error than Giuliani, McCain or Obama.

It’s also worth noting this bit from the Time story:

These figures must be read against the fact that 94% of respondents said they knew “a great deal” or “some” about Clinton, while 73% said the same of Giuliani and 66% of John McCain. Only 51% knew “a great deal” or “some” about Obama.

That should give Hillary some comfort; there are very few people left who don’t have an opinion on her, so there’s a chance her floor of unlikability is close. But it’s worth noting that Giuliani and McCain have similar levels of familiarity, yet distinctly different levels of likability. That tells me people aren’t just going on blind name recognition here. There’s something about that recognition that makes Giuliani shine.
10 Fargus Says:
January 25th, 2007 at 2:13 pm
I’m going on supposition here, and I’m not disagreeing with any of your points, but I’d dispute what people mean when they say they know “a great deal” about Giuliani, compared to what they mean when they say they know “a great deal” about Hillary. It’s not only that the levels are different, but as figures with different levels of public exposure at this point, the threshold for “a great deal” is a lot lower for Giuliani.

Just thinking out loud, I guess.
11 Dennis Says:
January 25th, 2007 at 3:01 pm
Well, let’s consider what the average voter knows about Hillary in terms of policy. She was involved in a health-care plan that went nowhere almost 15 years ago. Now she’s been a senator for six years, but generally hasn’t been out front on any particular issue.

So how much do people really “know” about her political positions? Sure, we all know her, and we know the caricatures of her. Let’s not forget; most people are not political junkies. I’d wager most people are making their decisions on her based on just as fuzzy an impression as they have of Giuliani. I’d say they both have a bit more substance behind their support than Obama, who is almost purely known for his biography and the fact that lots of people say he’s charismatic. I’d even question how much people have a sense of McCain; they know he’s a thorn in the side of Republicans sometimes, but I suspect many voters may not no which thorns he’s poking.
12 Anonymous Liberal Says:
January 25th, 2007 at 3:59 pm
Mark, for the subhead, how about: “It’s time has finally come”

As for the polls, I agree with Fargus. Giulliani is well-known, but most people only know that he’s a Republican and he’s very hawkish. In national interviews, he’s never asked about anything but terrorism/war issues. That’s what Republicans are responding to. I doubt most know anything else about him.

As for Hillary, I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again; her front-runner status is illusory. I’ll be shocked if she wins the nomination. Half of the country doesn’t know anything about Obama, and many don’t know all that much about Edwards either. In the states where voters do know Hillary’s rivals better (Iowa and New Hampshire) she isn’t doing nearly as well.
13 Mark Says:
January 25th, 2007 at 4:16 pm
Most people only know Giuliani as a Republican and Hawkish and yet he has a +68 favorability rating? Surely you might want to reconsider, I don’t think you’ve given that enough thought…the polls clearly show he has crossover appeal - you’re acting as if those numbers were just for Republicans, but they were for ALL voters, regardless of party…
14 Anonymous Liberal Says:
January 25th, 2007 at 6:00 pm
Mark,

I think Giuliani DOES have cross over appeal. I just don’t think he’ll win the Republican nomination. I think his poll numbers among Republicans are misleading.
15 The Commissar Says:
January 25th, 2007 at 6:33 pm
Well, Mark, that is a good question.

“Blogging the first non-incumbent Presidential campaign since 1952?”

Best I can do.
16 Mark Says:
January 25th, 2007 at 6:33 pm
Well, there’s no doubt he’s anathema to a certain type of conservative - what I’ve based what very little credibility I have on the subject is the belief that such a conservative holds far less sway than is commonly assumed…
17 Peter Says:
January 25th, 2007 at 8:38 pm
Mort Sahl famously described the period between Kennedy’s election and his inauguration as being akin to a pregnant girl trying to fall in love. I think this will also describe both parties’ attitude towards their nominees. Republicans are straining to embrace Giuliani and McCain, just as Democrats are straining to embrace Hilary and Obama. Everybody has negatives, nobody has the consensus support that most Presidential candidates rhave eceived from their parties in the past. I think that to some extent both parties will be holding their noses in their conventions –