Decision ‘08

Clinton Widens Lead Over Obama…

…while Rudy Giuliani remains the public favorite for the GOP:

On the day that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton officially entered the 2008 presidential sweepstakes, a new Washington Post-ABC News survey shows her with a wide lead over her potential Democratic rivals.

Clinton took 41 percent in a hypothetical primary field against 12 other Democrats, far ahead of Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) at 17 percent, former Sen. John Edwards (N.C) at 11 percent and former Vice President Al Gore at 10 percent. The party’s 2004 nominee — Sen. John Kerry (Mass.) — received 8 percent support. No other candidate crested three percent.

Those numbers are virtually unchanged from a Post-ABC survey in December that showed CLinton at 39 percent, Obama at 17 percent and Edwards at 12 percent.

“This poll confirms Hillary Clinton’s early frontrunner status among likely contenders for the Democratic nomination,” said Post polling director Jon Cohen. “It also indicates how little the intense media speculation and intrigue about Barack Obama’s candidacy over the past month has increased his standing among Democrats nationally.”

On the Republican side, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani held a 34 percent to 27 percent lead over Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), with no other potential candidate registering in double digits. Former Gov. Mitt Romney (Mass.) and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.) took nine percent each. Sen. Sam Brownback, who formally entered the race today, stood at one percent in the poll.

The wide lead over Obama is a bit of a surprise; indeed, the biggest surprise is that the two frontrunners on each side seem to be denied ‘frontrunner’ status by a sizable chunk of political junkies (particularly Rudy G.). In Rudy’s case, it’s the nagging feeling that he’ll be torpedoed by his ‘moderation’ and personal life; in Hillary’s case, it’s just flat denial: many Democrats just don’t want her to be the nominee, so they figure if they just pretend she’s not going to be, she won’t…

3 Responses to “Clinton Widens Lead Over Obama…”

1 Seth D. Says:
January 21st, 2007 at 7:26 pm
many Democrats just don’t want her to be the nominee, so they figure if they just pretend she’s not going to be, she won’t…

If so many Democrats don’t want her to be the nominee, she won’t be.

I also think that the corollary to the above is true: Republicans want her to be the nominee, so they convince themselves that it’s an inevitability.
2 Mark Says:
January 21st, 2007 at 7:41 pm
Well, Seth, you may be right, but how do you reconcile your theory with the polls, including the one I just quoted above?…
3 Dennis Says:
January 22nd, 2007 at 12:17 pm
I think the Obama boomlet is a legit concern for Hillary, in that it shows many people are hoping for someone to come along and take us beyond the Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton dynamic, which seems so heavy on spitting fury. But I think it’s just as much driven by political reporters, who always want a real race to cover. Nothing is more boring to cover than a coronation. So the reporters will hype whatever they can get. Heck, they even tried to fool themselves into thinking Bill Bradley had a shot against Al Gore.

As for the Republicans, I really wish some of the experts who keep predicting Giuliani and McCain are DOA would start telling me why they win poll and after poll.