Decision ‘08

A Merry Christmas For Hillary and Obama…

…as their poll surge/media blitz continues to pay dividends. Dan Balz writes in the Washington Post:

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), trading on star power, the capacity to raise tens of millions of dollars with relative ease and an ability to dominate media attention, are rewriting the script of the 2008 Democratic presidential campaign, driving potential rivals to the sidelines and casting a huge shadow over all others who may run.

What once shaped up as a sizable field of Democratic candidates is now shrinking. Sen. Evan Bayh (Ind.) announced on Dec. 16 that he would not seek the Democratic nomination, a surprising decision that came just days after he witnessed firsthand the megawatt voltage of Obama’s drawing power in New Hampshire. As Bayh drew small crowds on his seventh trip to the Granite State, Obama enjoyed sold-out audiences and saturation coverage on his first.

Bayh became the third Democrat to quit the race before Clinton or Obama have taken formal steps to enter. Former Virginia governor Mark R. Warner and Sen. Russell Feingold (Wis.) abandoned their bids after lengthy periods of exploration. All chose not to run for their own reasons, but Obama’s sudden emergence creates a significant obstacle to those hoping to become the alternative to front-runner Clinton in the Democratic nomination contest.

“Simply put, it’s the Obama factor,” said Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart. “Obama’s entry into the presidential race essentially raised the ante. Candidates who used to do careful exploration with the hope that they could catch fire in Iowa and New Hampshire and move from there recognize that there’s no oxygen left out there for their candidacies.”

A new Research 2000 poll shows Obama’s growing strength:

Two weeks after speaking to a sell-out Manchester crowd of more than 1,600, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is reaping the benefits of his visit. If the Democratic primary were held today, Obama would be in a statistical dead heat with New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, according to a new Monitor poll. Last month, a Monitor poll showed Clinton trouncing her opponents, with Obama lagging 23 points behind.

“I’m not surprised, because Barack Obama got five days of constant media attention in New Hampshire,” said Jim Demers, a lobbyist and former Democratic lawmaker who accompanied Obama throughout the senator’s New Hampshire visit. “Obama has demonstrated to the people of New Hampshire that he’s a top-tier candidate.”

Although Clinton commands considerable support among likely Democratic primary voters, she struggles in general election match-ups, according to the poll. If the contest were held today, both Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani would prevail over Clinton. Obama, in contrast, would eke out a slight win over both Republican candidates. Former Democratic vice presidential nominee John Edwards is neck-and-neck with the Republicans.

Thus, the poll is both good and bad news for Obama, with its great general and poor primary results…I’m leaning towards believing Obama really will run, however. I put his odds at throwing his hat into the ring at 5-2…

3 Responses to “A Merry Christmas For Hillary and Obama…”

1 Jo Says:
December 25th, 2006 at 5:31 am
So he can draw a huge crowd the likes that is overshadowing even Hillary — but what does he stand for? Merry Christmas!
2 Steve Mac Says:
December 26th, 2006 at 9:34 pm
How about:
* Opposed War before we started it,
* Get our boys home before more get killed
* Stop corruption
* Negotiation & Collaboration in foreign affairs
* INcreased minimum wage. access to healthcare

He’s got plenty of time for position papers w/ more details, but that’s what he stands for.

Plus, he’s a thinking person who happens to be intelligent and well spoken–three critical criteria we’ve discovered to be very important.
3 Len Says:
December 29th, 2006 at 7:47 am
I’m reading the book Obama signed for me in Portsmouth, NH, and am impressed with the depth of his thinking about topics such as the Constitution. Since he taught Constitutional Law at the University of Chicago, it’s not surprising that he knows the subject well. What’s also refreshing is how well he writes–with grace, humor, clarity, and humility. I think it’s possible that Hillary will shock everyone and decline to run, being happy enough in the Senate to want to remain there for a long and fruitful career, and being proud enough not to enjoy the prospect of going to New Hampshire in January and attracting much smaller crowds than Obama did on December 10th.