Barone On The Republican Frontrunner(s)
Has Rudy really been this underestimated?
Pollster.com has an interesting summary of the poll standings for the Republican nomination in 2008. It makes the point, largely overlooked by political writers of all stripes, that Rudy Giuliani has been leading John McCain in the large majority of polls, albeit usually by narrow margins. Political writers seem to be assuming that Giuliani can’t win the Republican nomination because of his liberal stands on cultural issues. I have disagreed for some time. Yes, Giuliani’s stands on these issues are a liability in Republican primaries. But they could be trumped by the very strong positive feelings people have had about his performance on and after September 11.
That’s what talk show host and law professor Hugh Hewitt found when he polled an audience of Republican women in Temecula, Calif., back in 2005. Hewitt asked one of the women why she could support Giuliani when he disagreed with her on cultural issues.“All that won’t matter if we’re attacked,” she said. “Rudy will keep us safe.“
The polling evidence suggests she’s not alone. McCain is often described as the front-runner for the Republican nomination. I think it’s more accurate to call him a front-runner and to acknowledge that Giuliani is a front-runner too.
If Barone is correct (and uncharacteristically, I’m not sure that he is), we’ve certainly been prescient in these parts. Decision ’08, in both authorship and readership, has recognized the power of a Rudy candidacy from the beginning.
Yes, McCain is still the frontrunner, by dint of his establishment backing. But Rudy is a real contender, and it’s not at all far-fetched to see him as the nominee (certainly, his odds are far better than Romney’s). If some people are just now realizing this, that’s quite puzzling to me…
I think you hit the nail on the head right here, Mark. I don’t know how many times I’ve read some pundit casually dismiss Giuliani with a “Oh, wait until they find about his stances on abortion/gay marriage/illegal right turns on red, etc.” but then go on to talk up the possibilities of someone like Mitt Romney. So Giuliani, a guy who’s been at the top of nearly every poll taken over the past two years, a guy with a steady 25% to 35% vote in just about every one of those polls, gets dismissed with a handwave, while somebody like Romney, who would be excited just to get out of the single digits, is treated as a likely nominee.
I can’t help but think a lot of this is about bias against social conservatives. It’s a mentality of “Well, of course, I would vote for Giuliani, but those people never would.” I have a hard time taking as gospel the notions of how social conservatives will vote from people who never speak with social conservatives.
Certainly some folks will oppose Giuliani for a variety of reasons, and while I’m a supporter, i have no beef with them. But I’m a little tired of people continuing to think he’s only doing well in the polls because somehow people beyond the Hudson River are ignorant of him, despite his being in the public eye for 15 years.