Informed Speculation

In the Wall Street Journal, John Fund argues that an Obama candidacy is premature and unlikely:

If Mr. Obama chooses to sit 2008 out, he won’t be the first person to play the media like a fiddle, being coy about his intentions in order to boost his profile. Al Gore has followed his wife’s advice to leave the door open for a 2008 presidential bid in part to fuel interest in his global-warming documentary and book. Similarly, Mr. Obama knew what he was doing in October when he announced his interest in a presidential candidacy at the very moment his new book reached the stores. Since then, “Audacity of Hope” has reached the top of the best-seller lists, selling more than 400,000 copies.

In addition to all the consultants who are urging him to run, Mr. Obama has other advisers who are telling him that at age 45 he can afford to wait. He also could easily find himself on the top of her list of potential running mates. “A Clintion-Obama ticket would be the most powerful turnout machine you can imagine for the Democratic base in 2008,” one Democratic congressman who knows both of them told me. “He might be better positioned to be president if he first ran for vice president. If Hillary won, he would be the heir apparent. If she lost, no one would blame him for that.”

For all the disappointment the national media might express at an Obama noncandidacy, he could marshal his rhetorical skills and deliver a superb speech that would deepen his long-term appeal to the electorate.

Imagine how refreshing it would be if he bowed out of the race for now, saying: “For every thing there is a season. I believe I am qualified to be president. But I think the country would be better served if I break with normal political ambition and for now devote myself to listening, learning and becoming the most effective senator for Illinois I can be. In other words, I have decided not to succumb to the hype that others are busy creating around me. That’s for Hollywood, not for the serous business of running a country in troubled and dangerous times. I appreciate all the attention, but I would like to have more of a conversation with the American people before asking them to entrust me with that grave responsibility. That conversation is better conducted for now outside the media glare of a presidential campaign. Let the dialogue begin.”

That kind of approach–practicing statesmanship in the face of enormous temptation–might elevate Mr. Obama’s appeal in the long run and be of more benefit to him than the instant gratification of the campaign trail. Don’t be surprised if an unconventional man like Mr. Obama makes that unconventional career choice.

I’m still on the fence on Obama’s run: I see strong arguments either way.  Fund is right about one thing, though: Hillary/Obama would be an incredibly formidable ticket.  He’s also right about another thing: if Obama runs against Hillary, he won’t get a free pass…