Decision ‘08

No Surprises In Lebanon

As expected, the Lebanese cabinet approved the Hariri tribunal; and, as expected, the President and Speaker of the Parliament will continue to try to derail it for their Syrian masters:

The Cabinet sent to the president Monday a draft accord on a tribunal to try the alleged killers of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, taking another step in the struggle between pro-Western and pro-Syrian forces in Lebanon.

President Emile Lahoud, a pro-Syrian, is expected to decline to endorse the agreement, which would set up a U.N. backed court that would sit outside Lebanon.

The tribunal has become a weapon in the battle between the Hezbollah-aligned factions and the anti-Syrian parties over the demand by Hezbollah and its allies for a third of the Cabinet’s seats, a position that would give them veto powers.

Six Cabinet ministers, including all the Shiites, resigned from the Cabinet earlier this month shortly before the government gave initial approval to the tribunal.

The move caused Lahoud to say the government should step down because the constitution requires all sects to be represented in the Cabinet. But Prime Minister Fuad Saniora, who is backed by the United States and anti-Syrian factions, has refused to resign, saying the Cabinet meetings still reach the quorum necessary to take decisions.

A statement from Saniora’s office said Monday that the tribunal accord, which the Cabinet approved on Saturday, had been referred to the president.

A spokesman for Lahoud said the accord had arrived at the Presidential Palace, but he did not know if the president had seen it.

Asked how Lahoud would respond to the accord, spokesman Rafik Shalala reiterated the president regards the Cabinet as having “lost its constitutional legitimacy after the resignation of the Shiite ministers.”

“The government’s meetings and decisions have no constitutional or legal basis,” Shalala said.

Hezbollah is threatening to call mass demonstrations unless it and its allies obtain a veto-wielding share of the Cabinet — a demand that Saniora and the anti-Syrian parties have rejected.

On Friday, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and the leader of the Shiite party Amal, Nabih Berri, said they supported the creation of the tribunal, but indicated that their priority was to achieve greater representation in Cabinet. They pledged to press their case “by using all available democratic and legal means” — a reiteration of the threat to hold mass protests.

The tribunal accord needs to be approved by the parliament, but the speaker, Berri, supports the view that the Cabinet is no longer constitutional.

You have to admire the audacity of the Hezbollah position: we’re for the tribunal - we’ll bring down the government to prevent it, but in principle, it’s a fine thing…