Decision ‘08

Bad News For Romney?

A new Rasmussen survey shows 43% opposition to a Mormon president:

Forty-three percent (43%) of American voters say they would never even consider voting for a Mormon Presidential candidate. Only 38% say they would consider casting such a vote while 19% are not sure. Half (53%) of all Evangelical Christians say that they would not consider voting for a Mormon candidate.

So that’s it, then, for a Romney candidacy? I doubt it…this sort of generic opposition, while it may well hold true for the hard-core, will dissipate when people are faced with the actual candidate and his positions. Romney is still a long shot, but I don’t think the Mormon factor is insurmountable…

8 Responses to “Bad News For Romney?”

1 peter Says:
November 22nd, 2006 at 5:31 pm
My guess is that you would have had a similar result if you asked people in 1959 if they would refuse to vote for a Catholic –

Of course one difference between then and now is that JFK had to distance himself from his faith, while today politicians wrap themselves up in their religious beliefs –
2 Tom Maguire Says:
November 22nd, 2006 at 6:17 pm
Romney is still a long shot…

Interesting - with Allen having collapsed, I look to Romney to emerge as the non-McCain, non-Giuliani.

At TradeSports, the Big Four are McCain (47% chance of getting the nomination), Romney (14%), Giuliani (16%), and Huckabee (8%).

Gingrich (4%) and Rice( 3%) are next.

Huckabee may be a great VP for someone, but I have a hard time seeing America electing (another) Arkansas governor with a diet book. That said, Huckabee is telegenic as all get out.
3 Mark Says:
November 22nd, 2006 at 7:19 pm
Huckabee, unfortunately, got a bad write-up today (can’t remember if it was the AP or Reuters) - but the gist was that he is ethically challenged (my own take was it was pretty small potatoes stuff - but still).

I find it amazing that Giuliani is only at 16%…
4 Sean P Says:
November 22nd, 2006 at 8:16 pm
I think Huckabee is toast, given that he’s currently trailing Hillary in polls in ARKANSAS. Brownback has tepid support among the So-Cons who make up his natural (sole) constituency, so I don’t give him much credit. Condaleeza Rice isn’t running, which would make victory difficult. And Newt Gingrich is doubly disqualified (he’s got Rudy’s messy personal life without the heroic narrative or the potential electability that are keeping Rudy in the game).

As for Romney, I just don’t see it. I know only the “hard core” evangelicals will never settle for a Mormon but Romney’s candidacy, by its very nature those are the voters Romney is targeting (and his past pro-choice sentiments won’t help).

With Rudy and McCain leading the polls, there is clearly room for an old-school so-con in the race, but at the moment there doesn’t look like a credible candidate that fits the bill. Perhaps that’s the opening Tommy Thompson saw when he threw his hat in the ring.
5 too many steves Says:
November 23rd, 2006 at 6:22 am
If Romney can overcome being a Mormon and an outsider to be elected Governor of MA then he can overcome this in a national election. People don’t know him yet, once they do he will get a serious look.
6 Chris J. Breisch Says:
November 23rd, 2006 at 8:38 pm
Romney’s critics have to walk a tightrope if using this as a criticism. If I recall correctly, the incoming Senate Majority Leader is also a devout Mormon.
7 Andy Says:
November 26th, 2006 at 1:47 pm
Rommey just slammed McCain for being on both sides of the issue (gay marriage) yesterday.

Unless McCain gets off the fence, he’s gonna trip in both directions. Sorta funny for the man who pulled BCRA out of his ass.
8 HT Springer Says:
January 21st, 2008 at 4:16 pm
If the economy remains the central issue in the presidential campaign, Romney will win the nomination and the presidency by a decisive margin. People may make noise about a man’s religion, but they care a great deal more about their jobs and the economy, and Romney is the only candidate who has any credentials to suggest that he’s capable of fixing anything.