Decision ‘08

Center-Left May Be Thriving, But What About Center-Right?

Rick Moran says Tuesday wasn’t a good night for all moderates and centrists; those with an (R) next to their names got killed. And that’s bad news for all Republicans, he convincingly argues:

It’s official. The Republican party is now as ideologically monochromatic as a political party can get. With the defeat of a dozen northeastern and Midwestern moderates, the GOP is now truly a conservative party, the kind envisioned by Ronald Reagan and Barry Goldwater many years ago.

The problem – and this will become readily apparent in 2008 – is that the party has also shrunk geographically. At the moment, the GOP is now a largely southern party with strong points in the mountain west. And most disturbing is that in the 10 battleground states that determine the winner of every presidential election, the GOP is a ghost of its former self (save Texas and Florida). In New York (3 seats lost) and Pennsylvania (4 seats lost), the party has virtually disappeared. Also worrying is the massacre of the GOP in Indiana (3 seats), North Carolina (2 seats), Arizona (2 seats), New Hampshire (2 seats), and Iowa (2 seats).

It is hard to overstate the threat to the Republican stranglehold on the electoral college these losses represent. In 5 of the last 7 presidential elections, the GOP began the race with a huge tactical advantage. They were virtually guaranteed more than 170 electoral votes before the ballots were cast thanks to their death grip on a solid south, the mountain west, and several Midwestern/border states that had become as reliably red in national elections as is historically possible.

No more. Now the GOP must fight to hold states like Indiana, North Carolina, New Mexico, Arizona, and probably even Colorado if they wish to win in 2008. That’s because of the big state advantage of the Democrats who have won 7 of the 10 largest states that last two presidential elections. Only Ohio and Florida – two states now considered toss ups in any national election – saved the GOP in 2004 and 2008. And given the election results on Tuesday, Ohio especially would appear to be an uphill battle for Republicans.

There are several issues at play here: dueling version of what conservatism means, different points of emphasis among various ‘wings’, etc. Maybe we’ll talk about the ideological implications later (Moran does in his post, so read it). I have found myself in agreement with those who think conservatism was not the loser Tuesday, but rather the Republican Party…but I see now that I have been too glib. I need to put a finer point on what I mean by conservatism.

In any event, from a practical standpoint, Moran is absolutely right…geographically speaking, our job in 2008 just got a lot more difficult…

6 Responses to “Center-Left May Be Thriving, But What About Center-Right?”

1 mtl Says:
November 10th, 2006 at 11:31 am
Is there a difference between center left, and center right…

or are they simply moderates, whether they have an r or d?
2 Mark Says:
November 10th, 2006 at 12:02 pm
I abolutely think there is a difference…the ideals that motivate each group are different. Center left still believes in big government, overall, and center right still prefers to shrink it, for one example. For another, center left is populist in its economic outlook, center right is free market…
3 mtl Says:
November 10th, 2006 at 12:17 pm
I think center right voters did the gop a favor by voting them out.

The two points you raise are extremely important if the gop is ever going to find its own wave-size of govt and economics.

Both are landmines for the new majority, and if they fail, the response will be as abrupt as 06 turned out to be. I do think that center left has far more power in this current dem majority, than they once previously held.

I really don’t see any economic changes and I doubt they are going to go full speed ahead on increasing the size of govt. Any new expensive social policy is cyanide to keeping power.

I do think one other landmine is still Iraq. The dems have to realize that their only exit strategy is through success. (I heard a local marine being interviewed, three tours…stayed away from actual party politcs, but offerred that morale is extremely high and the soldiers believe in what they are doing. He even plugged-to my complete surprise-gary trudeaux’s blog-the sandbox. Go figure…
4 mtl Says:
November 10th, 2006 at 12:24 pm
center left won without stating any policies, but I think stem cells played a significant role…I personally am opposed, but it is hard to reconcile it with Orin Hatch’s position-I like the guy, and no one can doubt his religous credentials.

The only card the new majority can still play into, that remains popular, is this issue. I don’t know if it is a center left, or center right position, but it is the one thing that bush will surely veto.

I do not see any grand programs, nor increase in spending beyond 4%. A balanced budget is doable in the pending budget…but points will be given for how close the dems can get to it.

I’m looking for an issue that actually will define the differences between the the center left and center right…
you got a specific?
5 Mark Says:
November 10th, 2006 at 1:07 pm
The minimum wage hike versus tax cuts is one way I frame an ‘actual issue’ that defines the difference. Both put money into the pockets of at least some of the lowest wage earners. Only one does so in a way the grows the economy and gives those wage-earners more jobs to try to advance into. The other will actually result in FEWER jobs in the economy.

Yet, because it’s an easy sell for the economic populists, the wage hike will pass early next year, and the tax cuts face the real prospect of expiring.

We can find some common ground with Democratic centrists, but economic issues are a permanent battle, because they reflect differing worldviews, and come pretty close to defining the difference between right and left altogether…
6 Jack Rich Says:
November 10th, 2006 at 2:54 pm
A number of Republicans were caught with their hands in the cookie jar. Or trying to get into a child’s knickers (that’s Foley, not the late G. Studds). Our problems are way past ideological differences on economic policy or the size and nature of government.

On this latter, of course, Dubya, with the willing support of his RINO enablers on the Hill, doesn’t look terribly different from the Donks. So here’s a very un-radical suggestion:

In 2008, run someone who a) has unimpeachable (in both senses) character, b) has conservative bona fides on national security. Everything else, I would suggest, should be negotiable in the face of a world-wide threat from militant Islam to end our civilization.