Election Eve Jitters
Both sides have got ‘em, no matter what they tell you. Noam Scheiber of The New Republic certainly does:
John Judis and I have been e-mailing about the alarming Pew poll that came out today. It reflects the same trends captured by that earlier Washington Post/ABC poll, except that the trends are, gulp, even more pronounced. Worse, the folks at Pew have graciously posted their cross-tabs, which makes it nearly impossible to rationalize the lousy results. As John points out, the fact that Democrats’ 15-point advantage among white women last month has turned into a 2-point disadvantage today is incredibly ominous. Unfortunately, it’s not quite as ominous as the erosion in the Democrats’ advantage among Northeasterners: from 26 points to 9. The Northeast is, of course, a region where Democrats are banking on roughly half a dozen pick-ups. That kind of dropoff isn’t going to get the job done. (One bright spot: the Dems’ advantage in the Midwest held steady.)
The only result John and I disagree on is the fallout from the Kerry joke. Nearly 20 percent of independents told Pew that the joke raised doubts in their minds about voting Democratic (versus 36 percent of Republicans and 5 percent of Dems).
Personally, I doubt the Kerry joke has any demonstrable effect. Like the Mark Foley thing, it had a much shorter shelf life than people give it credit for (though it did, obviously, occur closer to the election).
I’m actually in great shape heading into Wednesday; I’ve completely internalized a big loss, so even if the Dems win 40 seats in the House and take the Senate, I’m emotionally prepared.
This is the most underrated thing about being a pessimist: if something bad happens, you fully expected it. If something good happens, it’s a pleasant surprise…
It’s comforting to see the rest of the world finally coming around to my projections on the election. Running the numbers again over the weekend, I still see my original call as being the most likely:
House – GOP down 4
Senate – GOP up 2
Even the worst case scenario shows the House safe and no reduction in net Senate seats.
Stabenow will be the biggest surprise loss for the dems – there is a total lack of enthusiasm for her side in Michigan.
No optimism here – just laying out the hard numbers.
Something to be said for the complete erosion of democratic support…
a month ago, the election was a month away.
a week ago,…week away.
If the defection is manifesting itself in generic polls, and women, it would suggest that the election will be far better for the gop than predicted.
Very easy to say you support dems, disapprove of the gop on a phone poll…if only it had any similarity to voting. It doesn’t. One has consequence, the other is a free shot at the gop. Had I been polled I would have taken the same shot at the gop…but put me in a booth and it is a no-brainer.
Note on the Pew poll:
If you haven’t noticed, the poll overstates likely voters in the “under 30K” and “18 to 49” age group as opposed to other midterm elections, both categories that favor dems.
This model is reasonably correct for a presidential year. Voters in midterms trend to older, more affluent groups.
I’ll stick with my numbers, +2-3 for dems in the senate, 6-10 for the dems in the house.
IF you have followed these races too closely, the polling from the past month will cloud your judgment. The polling from the last day is more suggestive of the results, and momentum is growing exponentially. Almost all polls are too old-24 hours is a political year.
Nothing the gop has done to influence, merely an electorate examining what they are voting for.
Well, I’ll stick to my predictions as well…and note that you two are WAY more optimistic than anyone else I know (though God knows I hope you’re right)…
Final Prediction:
House: Dems +17 – +18
Senate: Dems +3 – +4
Republicans maintain majority in Senate
Dems slim in House. I’m still hopeful, but not very optimistic.
Contested Races: 20
Legally challenged races: 12
Middle East terrorists have no doubts about the upcoming US election.
They want the Democrats to win.
The only cavil they have is with Nancy Pelosi:
Maybe Howard Dean should see if these guys could help him tap some of Osama’s vast funding in return for pulling out of Iraq.
Senator Kennedy and Ex-Prez Jimmy Carter approached the Soviet leadership in 1983 for help in the ’84 elections against Ronald Reagan, according to KGB documents.
Why shouldn’t the Dems tap into their overseas “Hate America” allies?
Ok, if we’re making predictions, here’s mine:
The good people of my home state of Massachusetts will overwhelmingly re-elect Ted Kennedy to the US Senate.
And that is WITHOUT my vote!
I have been reading other sites and there is one that feels that the Bush Administration is purposely trying to lose the House so that Bush’s immigration bill will finally be passed. I feel this reasoning is probably “sour grapes” but do feel there may be some validity. I do oppose Bush’s immigration policy.
I too feel that the Repubs will keep the Senate but holding out hope for the House.
I will comment that if the Dems can’t take back at least one chamber with all the anti-GOP media hype, then they are a “dead” party.
Wait…..
jwest, what the hell “hard numbers” are you talking about? Share them with us, please?
[...] Scott Hanna of WDAY asked if Mehlman agreed with Rove that there was a discernible effect…the answer is, of course, that he did, and he referenced the recent Pew Survey as providing more than anecdotal evidence of that. [...]