A Word Of Caution
I’ve been highlighting some numbers in the past day or two that give the Republicans a glimmer of hope, including the three single-digit generic voter polls. Nevertheless, if you live by the numbers, you can die by the numbers, and there are a number of polls that still show the Democrats with a significant lead.
A case in point is this newly released CNN poll that shows the Democrats with a staggering 20-point generic lead. Another troubling poll released today, though it appears to be an outlier, shows Webb up by eight (!) in Virginia. The old cliche used by doctors when they have to tell someone they have a possibly fatal illness seems to be appropriate here:
Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst…
What to keep in mind when analyzing polls:
Who registers to vote as a democrat? Normally, someone who registers as a democrat is politically aware, desires to see democrats in a position of power and votes regularly.
The same is true for people who register to vote as republicans. They exhibit the same desires and traits as those outlined for the registered democrats.
Who registers to vote and claims to be an “independent”? People who don’t want to declare any preference, but still want to be able to vote in important elections. Their preferences and loyalties can be swayed depending on circumstances, but their commitment to actually voting is far lower than someone who declares their party during registration.
In 2004, 122 million people voted in the presidential election. The 2002 midterm election turnout was only 73 million. So, only about 60% of the people who voted in ’04 did the same in ’02. Who are these people who sat out the election?
If you believe in polls, this missing 40% of actual voters is distributed evenly among democrats, republicans and independents. If you believe in common sense, the majority of those sitting out the midterm elections come from “independent” ranks. Of course, there are hard core liberal and conservative voters registered as independents and yes, there are registered democrats and republicans who will not vote in the midterms, but as a group, a far larger percentage of independents will fail to show up to vote tomorrow.
All of the polls that have been bouncing around show that republicans are strongly in favor of republicans and the opposite is true for democrats. The variation is among independents who will be a statistical non-factor. This election, as with every midterm, will be mainly determined by the success of base GOTV efforts.
There are a few other factors, like the division of registered republican to democrats in the battleground areas, but that would take a lot more effort to go through right now.
Mark, Mark. Ever ever so cautious.
Just let us know if you decide to upgrade your forecast from a ‘glimmer of hope’ to anything stronger
All things considered, I think the most interesting subject in the weeks to come will be deconsttructing the polling hype and the undue ‘influence’ on what stories the MSM decides to run with.
CNN and Newsweak come out with polls far exceeding others in the extent of the margin Dems will win.
Newsbusters note:
Probably because the figures are as bogus as the two news-perps putting out this agitprop drivel.
Luckily, the number of viewers this sorry excuse for a network keeps plummeting, all the while they pronounce FOX-News on its deathbed because Fox has dropped from double the CNN viewership to less than double, although both are hemorrhaging as the public tires of tendentious drivel.
Remember when Ted Turner said that CNN would “crush Fox like a bug?” As usual, Ted was excreting that from his most productive orifice, and I don’t mean his out-sized under-brained mouth!
just as 2 examples, I’m pretty sure the polls had DeMint in SC and Bunning in KY down big in 04.
this is good news for Allen and Burns, IMO, but not necessarily for Talent, who slightly underperformed his polling last time. fraud could still turn MO. but that still makes the absolute worst case a loss of 4 (including Chafee). And I think it will not be that bad.